Posted on 05/22/2017 11:11:21 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The Donald Trump administration may push for naval blockades or the imposition of a "no-fly" zone against North Korea should it succeed in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile, an expert here said Tuesday.
Trump would view it as a red line for the nuclear-armed communist nation, according to Shin Beom-chul, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul.
In case of the North's successful development of ICBMs, "Taking military actions against Pyongyang will be the most appealing option on the table from Trump's perspective," he said in a paper released to media ahead of a security forum to be co-organized by Korea National Defense University and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (foundation).
The forum will be held in Seoul on Wednesday with the theme of "The New US Administration and Its Alliance Relations: Change and Continuity." Shin plans to give a presentation at the conference.
Shin pointed out that Trump will be restrained from launching a direct military strike against the North due to concerns about massive retaliatory attacks.
"He can still create military tensions through other options without carrying out a direct military attack on North Korea," the professor said. "That is, military operations, naval blockades, and the imposition of a no-fly zone could also escalate tensions in Northeast Asia."
For these reasons, he added, attention needs to be paid to the US decision to keep deploying its aircraft carrier Carl Vinson (CVN 70) in the East Sea after May.
Another key question is how China and Russia will respond to such US actions if taken.
Both Beijing and Moscow may seek to avoid a direct military confrontation with the US and step up efforts to nudge Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table on its nuclear program, Shin said.
Or they may try to check such unilateral military actions by the US, creating military tensions among the regional powers and exacerbating the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, he said.
If regional players fail to manage pending risk factors, he added, Northeast Asia is likely to slide into the vortex of armed confrontations.
> A naval blockade, in and of itself, is an act of war. <
That’s right. And so the Trump administration had better already have a good answer to these two questions:
1. How will the US respond if a Chinese ship should attempt to run the blockade?
2. How will the US respond if a Russian ship should attempt to run the blockade?
You fire, otherwise it isn’t a blockade.
Trump won’t order it if he won’t order fire.
#2 is a very good question because:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/05/19/despite-us-call-to-isolate-north-korea-ferry-service-to-russia-begins.html
He's getting feedback, selling ideas, negotiating, and most likely setting the table for some course of action to eliminate NK threat before it's too late.
This has been planned for decades, Albright and all that. I lean towards the Clinton’s taking down America. Time will tell...
And, we are not going to blockade.
Stupid...
We are at war with them. Just in a cease fire; which they violated many times.
The Norks are working at breakneck speed to perfect their nukes and missiles. Our time has nearly run out. Russia and China are not going to change their stance, so there is no point waiting. Do something or bring the ships home.
[And, we are not going to blockade.]
Yeah, that would surprise me, too. I think the net effect would be virtually the same as war. They’d still be inclined to hit Seoul.
I like it
Very valid point. Russia and China are weak now. Every day that passes they can and will get stronger. No point waiting. Either do it or not. I just wish someone could coerce democrat members of Congress to ride on the ships in any such naval blockade, so they can feel what our servicemen feel when put in harm's way.
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