As of now I would say the eye is heading for somewhere around Corpus Christie.
Let me cut through the volume of chatter with this condensed summary of most likely outcomes:
1. Eye of probable cat-3 (possible cat-4) Harvey will move slowly ashore near Port Aransas just northeast of Corpus Christi around midnight to 0300h tonight. Severe winds and storm surge from Corpus to Port O’Connor. Moderate winds and storm surge further east and south on TX coast but severe on parts of Padre Island from the inland side.
2. Very heavy rainfalls and severe local flooding most likely in regions around Beeville to Victoria to western portions of metro Houston and from that line to coast, moderately heavy most likely outcome further inland, San Antonio, south Texas south of Kingsville. Moderately heavy rainfalls could eventually extend to Dallas, Shreveport and most of LA.
3. Hurricane force winds will reach about as far inland as Beeville to Victoria, although cat-1 at worst there. Tropical storm force winds could as spectulated reach as far inland as southern OK, sw AR and n LA but these would be minimal tropical storm (35-50 mph). More robust tropical storm conditions are likely as far inland as Waco, College Station, Lake Charles.
4. Greatest uncertainty remains evolution beyond Sunday, the meandering center could go almost anywhere in TX, ne Mexico, and eventually could end up crawling up the coast towards Galveston or it could cut inland and go over Houston, or even further west. Some models show the remnants near Chicago in about a week from now.
5. While rainfalls will be widespread and excessive, actual totals will vary more than models can predict. Some counties will get more and some less than forecasts imply. Don’t be fooled into a false sense of security by your distance inland, this will spread tons of rain well inland and the rainfall max is likely to be 50-100 miles inland at least.
Unfortunately, this is a dreaded nightfall storm. Corpus Christi would likely experience 75+mph sustained winds and higher gusts tonight after 9:00PM.