SE Florida is now within the 72 hour window when models tend to have good agreement. The best they can hope for, IMO, is a track slightly off the coast that keeps the worst of the eyewall just offshore. The coastline above Florida is basically screwed, IMO. Surge is gonna be a bear.
Not familiar with the GA coast but SC and NC have been nailed enough in the past several decades that there is very little residential oceanfront construction remaining that is not raised on pilings. Going to wipe out frontal dunes with major beach erosion in many areas, though, and that typically renders oceanfront houses left sitting on the “new” beach un-rebuildable. They can be moved and sometimes are, for instance the house from “Nights In Rodanthe.” That was a major undertaking though, it’s a large, elaborate Hatteras style beach cottage.
All models seem to indicate Irma will hug the state’s East Coast from south to north, potentially moving inland over some sections. .....This type of track is far different from those of Hurricane Andrew (1992) and Katrina (2005), which moved from east to west across the Miami metro area.
Even if off the coast and Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Cat 3 or 4 the models still currently suggest, the portions of the coast ‘that the eyewall touches’ will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records......and even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges.
Their saying the area of most concern is.... the ‘northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina,’.... due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights.
In a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate....
(Source Wunder)
Storm surge predictions.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas
“If Irma makes a trek up the East Coast from Miami to southern South Carolina as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, as the models currently suggest, the portions of the coast that the eyewall touches will potentially see a massive and catastrophic storm surge, breaking all-time storm surge records and causing many billions of dollars in damage. Even areas up to a hundred miles to the north of where the center makes landfall could potentially see record storm surges. The area of most concern is the northern coast of Florida, the coast of Georgia, and the southern coast of South Carolina, due to the concave shape of the coast, which will act to funnel and concentrate the storm surge to ridiculous heights. If we look at wunderground’s storm surge maps for the U.S. East Coast, we see that in a worst-case Category 3 hurricane hitting at high tide, the storm tide (the combined effect of the storm surge and the tide) ranges from 17 – 20’ above ground along the northern coast of Florida, and 18 – 23 feet above ground along the Georgia coast. If Irma is a Cat 4, these numbers increase to 22 – 28 feet for the coast of Georgia. This is a Katrina-level storm surge, the kind that causes incredible destruction and mass casualties among those foolish enough to refuse to evacuate.”