Posted on 01/22/2018 10:54:07 PM PST by lowbuck
My speculation in a blogpost yesterday that Senate Democrats were willing to vote for a government shutdown on the DACA issue because of their great solidarity, built up for many years since their narrow capture of seven Senate seats in 1986, has been vindicated by their surrender on the shutdown today — sort of.
My argument was based on what was, in my view, the serious political weakness of their position, portrayed even in much of mainstream media as blocking funding for the government in favor of legalizing certain illegal immigrants. To maintain near total cohesion, in such circumstances, seemed to me a considerable achievement.
But it didn't last. It seems obvious that many Senate Democrats, especially from Trump-carried states, concluded it not just weak but untenable. We don’t know how many Democratic senators pressured Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., to abandon the shutdown, but it was probably many; only 16 Democrats, all but two from heavily Democratic states, persisted in voting for it after he backed down — a much lower number than have been voting against confirmation of many routine Trump appointees.
There’s speculation in liberal Twitterland that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is not going to live up to his promise to bring legalization forward for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. But why wouldn’t he? There is no way to pass — no way to get 60 Senate votes for — an immigration bill that includes the reforms to the system President Trump proposes (the wall, an end to chain migration and visa lottery, E-Verify, switching extended-family-reunification or chain-migration slots to skill-based). The only way to get such a bill is to use the leverage Trump enjoys by being willing to let the DACA executive order lapse without such a bill. What exactly can be negotiated remains to be seen. But McConnell has reason to bring forward such a bill, and he will have the leverage Trump supplied by extending the DACA executive order only until March 5. The pressure will be on Democrats, not Republicans, to agree to something before that.
And is there any doubt that the House would pass a bill passed by the Senate, or something easily conferenceable with it? I don’t think so.
Democrats based their shutdown strategy on the responses to one poll question: Should DACA recipients be legalized? Clear majorities are in favor. But there are or may be majorities also for many of the provisions Trump is seeking as well — not the wall, but on skills-based versus chain migration, the lottery, and E-Verify. It may prove hard to reach agreement on this. But as I see it, the leverage is on the Republicans’ side.
My view from afar is that illegal immigration is going to be one of the top issues this fall and if the GOP plays it right they can drive the issue to success at the polls. Or, they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, defy President Trump and the voters and we can say hello to Nancy.
Just my 2¢
They’ve got hand :)
Look at this from a Democrat’s perspective, which is to say, a cynical, ruthlessly calculating vote generating perspective: they cannot sustain any more shutdowns or their
many Trump state Democrats on the ballot this year are going to get massacred. They can cope with a wall because they figure they can somehow stall it or block the funding in a later Congress. Also, ultimately if they can get enough new anchor baby voters online and keep chain migration and even sustain our current legal immigration levels, they’ll have the numbers game rigged eventually anyway. So, they’ll do a little for the DACAS but don’t expect them to give away the store. Strip away the DACA crocodile tears, and this cohort is just one expendable platoon of future voters. They’d rather not have to, but expend them they will to win the war.
Often because they don’t represent us despite their promises.
If immigration is a losing issue for Dems, maybe they need a deal to make it go away before the election.
If there is no deal, they go into the election with their dreamy DACA voters being removed from the Country every day - amongst great wailing, gnashing of teeth, and finger pointing.
If they spend to much time and bandwidth on the immigrants, do they drive a wedge between themselves and their essential Black voters?
How will they juggle this issue, with the scandals likely to break after the budget?
Democrats will no doubt make their choices entirely based on their assessment of how it effects their next election. Crank up the heat until they beg Trump to take $20 billion for a wall, and Goodlatte’s Securing America’s Future Act to make the pain stop.
Love your analysis, goodman.
Way too many smart people on FR.
The Electorate’s memory is very short. Democrats can still reference “The Government Shutdown”, implying it was President Trump’s doing.
I’m not convinced the electorate noticed that there *was* a shutdown.
Though the media denies this truth ... 4 of 5 American Citizens want illegals removed
Only way Congress can give the keys away is by sending Trump a veto-proof Bill....they want to be reelected too so I’d say Trump is in the driver seat and revving the 800 pony mill up...
Here's the last paragraph in the article.
But there are or may be majorities also for many of the provisions Trump is seeking as well — not the wall, but on skills-based versus chain migration, the lottery, and E-Verify.
Obviously, the author still thinks Trump is going to accept a bill without a wall....and encouraging the rats and the GOPe, insert Gramenesty types here, to not write a bill including full funding.
Today, the big news is the report that Mr. Trump will give a path to citizenship for 1.8 million illegals. Now I take this with a bit of salt as the original story comes from “The Hill” which is about as left as you can get unless you go over to “Politico”.
Maybe I am wrong, but until I hear the words come out of the Presidents mouth I will not believe the details as reported by the MSM.,
Meanwhile, the lunatic left is going crazy and staking out their counter position which I am sure crafty Trump is going to use to push them into another lose-lose situation.
Always, my 2¢
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