Health-wise, Erdogan is not likely to be around in five years. He’s got various issues. The bigger question will be if the state party will accept Erdogan’s son stepping in to fill dad’s shoes (Bilal Erdogan). If you back over the past decade, junior has been in and out of the news...over suggested money-laundering in Europe. Court episodes get dropped...mostly over limited evidence.
I think junior will take over for dad, and the current mess will evolve into different type of crisis. The days of value for Incirlik are long-gone. I’d be the last one to say some Kurd-state is the best solution...you’d just end up with a Erdogan-like-Kurd boss in five years and marginal stability.
On a separate note, I saw where the Russians are working up a deal to build a nuke energy plant in Saudi Arabia. That will help to hype the whole region.
Syrian Kurds don’t have anyone like Erdogan. I know none that are Islamists. Some are Muslim (not most in Syria), but not jihadi’s. That is whey they were excluded from Obama’s unicorn army of Jihadis.