Posted on 05/13/2018 10:01:41 PM PDT by Helicondelta
Sunday on New York AM 970 radio’s “The Cats Roundtable,” political commentator and former Bill Clinton adviser Dick Morris shot down the idea that there will be a “blue wave” in the 2018 midterm elections, instead saying a “red wave” is on the way.
Morris told host John Catsimatidis he believes “Democrats are overplaying their hand” by going after President Donald Trump for the Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels scandals, adding it will show in the 2018 elections.
“I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals,” Morris stated. “They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn.”
He predicted, “There is no blue wave coming. There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party.”
The ONLY way there will be a red “wave” will be in spite of the Republican and GOPe incomptence.
Could it happen? Yes, but it won’t be because of anything the R’s do or don’t do.
The only way there will be a red “wave” will be if the Democrats embrace impeach and the far left whackadoos in their party and openly run on these issues in the fall.
Right now, the outcomes this fall is most likely this:
Republicans gain 6+ Senate seats, but lose the house.
This outcome is bases on simple grade school mathematics, historical patterns, and the electoral map.
Basically, the Dems have an enthusiasm gap... Their hard left and Party loyalists are motivated, and are going to crawl over glass to vote agains Trump this fall... that’s how they will view it.... they basically are treating the fall election as a referendum on Trump. (Remember how you felt in 2010??? That’s how these guys feel now, and they are going to show up en masse).
The rest of the electorate will treat the race, as any other race, a referendum on the party in power and/or on their local Senator/House member. The GOP, sadly has no idea who the electorate is, and has no idea how to talk to the non traditional MAGA/Trump voter, let alone how to motivate them to care and show up this fall... their entire electoral message is the same tired messaging they have used for 20 years or more, and it didn’t get these folks to show up in 20 years, and it won’t get them to shop up this fall.
As such, a lot of purple and pink districts will go blue, almost certainly enough for the house to change hands. Don’t believe me? Go look at the AZ Special eleciton numbers as an example.. Yes the GOP won in the end, but the Dems turned out near Presidential Year numbers, while the GOP just got its usual midterm numbers... it stayed RED because the district was just so red it didn’t matter that the Dems showed up en masse there.... that WON’T BE THE CASE FOR A LOT OF DISTRICTS!!!
So a lot of pink and purple districts are going to flip, unless the GOP figures out it needs the MAGA/TRUMP voter, and that the usual reliable base will not be enough... and start talking to them and giving them a reason to care and show up... and it appears they have no intention to, or even know how to.
Meanwhile over in the Senate, the Map heavily favors the republicans... While you can swamp a congressional district with turnout, its much arder to do at the state level... and the overwhelming majority of senate seats up are in very red states.... So the GOP will almost certainly gain significantly in the Senate, just based on the map, in spite of likely losing the house.
Now, the one way to change all tis, is if the fall election become a referendum on Trump for EVERYONE... if that happens, R’s will likely gain 20+ seats IN SPITE OF THEMSELVES... because while those non traditional MAGA/TRUMP voters may not have a reason to care for their local rep... They damn well will care when they see the Dems trying to undo the 2016 election and will indeed show up, and crawl over glass to stop that from happening.
So, that’s where we stand, the GOP, does what the GOP always does, they lose the house, and gain in the Senate.... IF the democrats decide Impeachment is going to be an official part of their fall platform, GOP not only holds the house, but likely gains 20+ seats and you have a true red wave.
Agreed... Romney lost a completely winnable election... but doesn’t change the predictions were bad... see post 101 I believe, that’s the fall dynamic right now...
The GOP lose the house and gain 6+ in the senate... can they have a wave? IMHO yes.. but it will take the DEMS completely overplaying their hands to make it happen, because the GOP(e) is completely incompetent.
They folks they need to show up are folks Trump got outside the traditiona R base, and the GOP ecosphere appears to either not understand this, or has no idea how to court and motivate those voters.
A stopped clock is correct twice per day.
Hopefully, this is one of Dick Morris’ “stopped clock” moments.
SIGH, With his sorry Prediction record, I HAVE TO get worried.
Dammit!
If Dick “Mitt’s Gonna Win” Morris makes a prediction I should like I get very VERY nervous ... having said that, he did see the path for POTUSVSG to win in 2016 ..
The democrats want a red wave all right, communist red.
Well, he wasn’t wrong about Hillary running against Condi way back when......he even wrote a book about it.....
oh wait......
Romney did in fact win the election in ‘12.
there was documented and verifiable evidence of rampant and massive vote fraud in many key states. (e.g. Ohio)
obozo was not fairly “elected” by any measure.
obviously you don’t like Dick Morris but do you ever read anything or can you discern historical facts ?
Bravo Zulu!!
thank you Sir !
Oh, have no doubt about it this election will be about Trump and Democrat obstruction with a topping of massive misuse of the Intelligence apparatus.
Headlines are only going to get worse for the Democrats, so many that it becomes impossible to follow all the connections without spending more time to trace them that almost all do not have.
Republican candidates are going to get an education.
Where did I say I didn’t like Morris? All I said was the guy predicted Romney would win in a landslide.
Oh crap. The pubbies are screwed.
MAKE IT HAPPEN!
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