You are not very astute in knowing which candidate can win and which won’t. Reason Trump prevailed over 16 seasoned republicans in primary and over the smartest woman in America (as defined by democrats) because of one reason more than other reasons. It is his ability to attract crowds and make them love him. Roy Moore has the charisma of a sick cat.
If you had attended one of his 100+ rallies, you would have the answer. I attended his rally during primaries in Washington State (a solid blue state) and when the rally was over, I already knew Trump was going to win in general. I have never seen 10,000+ people cheering their guts off for any other politician. Trump has amazing presence and charisma.