Posted on 08/02/2018 11:33:22 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
Can you tell the difference between one degree Celsius?
Hurricanes can. At least that’s what Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach is banking on.
His team released its last hurricane forecast of the 2018 season on Thursday, and Klotzbach offered encouraging news for those who live in the path of Atlantic storms:
HURRICANE GUIDE: Everything you need to be prepared for the 2018 hurricane season.
He predicted the season will bring a slightly below-average number of storms. Klotzbach anticipates the rest of the Atlantic storm season will see nine named storms, including three hurricanes and one major hurricane — a Category 3 storm or above with winds speeds of at least 111 mph.
This season has already seen three named storms and two hurricanes, including Subtropical Storm Alberto in May. An average season delivers 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
This latest forecast reverses the position scientists took before hurricane season, when Klotzbach and researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration all forecast above-average seasons.
That pivot, Klotzbach said, hangs on that one single degree.
The tropical Atlantic Ocean, from the west coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles, is on average 26 degrees Celsius. It’s normally 27 (for those who only use Fahrenheit that’s 78.8 and 80.6 degrees, respectively.)
But even 1 degree Celsius or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, makes all the difference.
"Right now it’s the coldest on record in mid July, in the tropical Atlantic," Klotzbach said. The record goes back to 1982.
Hurricanes feed off warm surface water, so that tiny discrepancy could result in a significant reduction in the number, and severity, of storms.
Atlantic surface waters were colder than normal this spring, as they’ve been in years past. But unlike last year, when those waters rapidly warmed and produced one of the strongest, destructive and costly hurricane seasons on record, the summer warming has been slower than expected. And since the season is already approaching its peak — normally late August through early October — there’s little time for the ocean temperatures to catch up.
"Given how cold the Atlantic is, as Yogi Berra would say, it’s getting late early," said Klotzbach, invoking the great and quotable New York Yankees legend.
The likelihood of storm landfall was also reduced. Klotzbach estimated Florida and the U.S. east coast have a 63 percent chance of being struck by a named storm, down from the usual 81 percent.
So what’s keeping the Atlantic temperature down? Klotzbach said it’s likely a combination of two factors. There have been strong winds across the Atlantic, and winds tend to churn deeper, cooler water to the surface. Also, the air over the water has been dusty. The particles tend to reflect sunlight before it warms the ocean.
Another factor in the weaker forecast is that a weak El Niño could develop, Klotzbach said. El Niño is the presence of warmer-than-normal water in the tropical Pacific that creates strong winds over the tropical Atlantic. Those winds can tear apart storms before they can coalesce into dangerous cyclones, dampening hurricane development and growth.
A weaker season would add another wrinkle to the debate hurricane scientists are having about whether the Atlantic Ocean is in a period of relatively high activity, as scientists agree it was from 1995 to 2012, or if it switched to a period of relative quiet. The 2013-16 seasons were slower seasons, and some scientists wondered if the ocean had transitioned to a slow cycle. A slow 2018 season could lend more credence to the theory that the Atlantic switched back to an inactive period in 2013, and last year’s historically hyperactive season was an anomaly.
The cool ocean temperatures, while welcome, were surprising, Klotzbach said.
"In this day in age, you expect everything to be hot, record high," he said. "So when you see record cold, that makes
Our power to control global weather through our purchases is indeed one of the amazing mysteries of the natural sciences. I once bought a Jeep Wrangler and for four years we never had a serious snow. Then I sold it. Blizzard a few weeks later. Someone needs to study this phenomenon.
Caused by global wring after Trump fired up those coal burning plants.
“It was a tornado in the hurricane that did in Punta Gorda...”
A few days after, we drove down to Wachula, not far from Punta Gorda. Drove by a strip mall with a 40 ft wide chunk ripped out of it. The tornado kept going out the back and cut a clean path through the forest for what seemed like miles.
Serious power in those tornadoes.
yup...right at 2pm friday it hung a right. We were looking at the right side of the storm going right over us. The storm surge would have turned our first floor condo into a parking spot.
Just damn!
The Left just can’t catch a break!
What’s a Marxist/Socialist/Communist Pinko supposed to do these days?
COOL ATLANTIC?! DURING THE HOTTEST YEAR EVAH!? AS PROCLAIMED THIS VERY MORNING ON THE NEWS!? NO WAY?!
Or not. They dunno shit.
And this is why evacuation should be last option, not first. Governmental convenience is not the categorical imperative.
Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell.com has been talking about this for the last two months. See his latest report from this morning’s ‘daily summary’ at: https://www.weatherbell.com/
Thanks for the ping and the link. Joe Bastardi is usually reliable.
I’m interested in a wicked winter forecast
On what do you base youprediction?
What fortells a harsh winter?
Soon the polar bears will begin moving quietly to the south.
Cold winter on the east coast due to pressure ridge arrangement where there’s a big high over Canada pumping cold air into the East and SE US.
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