Hurricane Florence & Isaac

NHC/NOAA ^ | 9 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.

The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.

Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.

Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.

Click on the images below to enlarge

Hurricane Florence	Isaac
Florence Public Advisory	Isaac Public Advisory
Florence Forecast Discussion	Isaac Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Florence	Buoy/Observations near Isaac

National Data Buoy Center

Local Weather:
Norfolk VA
Morehead City NC
Wilmington NC
Charleston SC
Jacksonville FL
San Juan PR

[Lazamataz]

[NautiNurse]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM Advisory...
----------------------------------------------
About 355 MI...SW of Bermuda
About 670 MI...ESE of Cape Fear NC
Maximum Sustained Winds...140 MPH
Present Movement...WNW at 17 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...946 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.


RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
35 inches near the storm's track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--

[Lazamataz]

[Lazamataz]

[NautiNurse]

Correction: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

[Lazamataz]

Diabetus rap (this is a must-listen)

[NautiNurse]

Enough, Laz. Start your own thread to discuss DM.

[HollyB]

A few days ago Joe Bastardi said 3-4’ of rain. Just The sound of that much rain is terrifying. But, he was right!

[mplsconservative]

Prayers up for all FReepers in harm’s way. Wish I could provide a respite for you in Minnesota. Our tornadoes can be terrifying but they don’t go on for days. :( My heart goes out to you!

[Guenevere]

How much impact do you think Western North Carolina will get.....?
We’re a good distance from the coast......over 300 miles

Unfortunately our ground is already soaked from constant rain all summer, the trees are already toppling.

[Rebelbase]

The Track change is insane based on NOAA’s forecast of the past few days.

Post 509 above was inspired by the FEMA/Trump briefing earlier today.

Trump asked, “What are the chances it veers off course and the hit won’t be so direct?”

Brock Long the FEMA Administrator replied, “Unfortunately I believe there’s quite a bit of certainty in the track forecast because the forward speed is picking up, it’s getting faster and when system forecasts do that it becomes a lot more accurate”

And now the track changes!

[Lazamataz]

[Lazamataz]

[eyedigress]

Starting to push south.

[TADSLOS]

Flash flooding in low lying areas. More downed trees, especially pines.

Biggest impact will most likely be the large influx of evacuees looking for lodging and food.

[Lazamataz]

Hurricane Florence.

Hurri-cane Florence.

Hurri-SUGAR-CANE Florence.

Sugar gives you

[eyedigress]

Are you ok?

[Guenevere]

There’s not a lot of lodging in the smaller mountain towns........Sylva, Cashiers, Franklin........but the higher elevation town of Highlands no doubt has room...although pricey

[TADSLOS]

I can’t stop laughing.

I know I shouldn’t.

It just encourages you.

[Lazamataz]

Are you ok?

No.

I have....