Your scenario is probably something that would occur within ten to fifteen years.
I think they will reach the stage where they approach Congress and ask for a 250 billion dollar loan (zero interest), and the red states basically say ‘no’. Then the red states will insist on fundamental reforms to be written into the California constitution (like state and local retirement), and to have the state supreme court stamp it as official. It’ll never happen, and the state will basically fail at that point.
Over the next decade, home values decline....businesses will shut down, and California will become Mexico-West.
This. It's a certainty, and there are people in the know in Cali who realize they aren't prepared.