AZ Senate-POLL: McSally has lead over Sinema as election nears.

ABC 15 Phoenix ^ | 0/31/2018 | Justin Pazera

[Deplorable American1776]

Arizona citizens, vote McSally...

[LS]

McS’s lead isn’t seven but she does have a lead, and it’s hard, meaning the indies have all been flushed out.

AZ Rs hugely outperforming Ds: so far up 100,000 in absentee/early voting; R women OUTPERFORMING D women!!

And, congress wise, there may be a surprise on election night.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Larry, Looking at FL and the day-to-day comparison (adjusted by two days), today was a day you might have expected the Dems to take a chunk out of the GOP lead. This time in 2016, they sliced approx 10,000 off the GOP lead. Instead, GOP lead grew by a few hundred.

If it is fairly muted like this for the next couple of days, the GOP has a shot at actually leading the EV and absentee combined going into election day.

I have been prepared that the Dems will probably take the lead but by much less than the 96K lead in 2016. Been preparing for about a 40K lead.

Fingers crossed.

[LS]

It’s not seven, but McSally leads and it’s a HARD lead (tremendous allocation of indies to Enema).

McSally will win.

There may be a surprise or two in the Congressional races.

[LS]

Overall, yesterday, Rs gained 600!
By election day in 2016, Ds were up 96,000
I estimate they will gain net 35,000 by election day (70% of 50,000, their 2016 Sunday total), or Rs will finish up 30,000 by election day.

That’s a net flip of 159,937!

Trump won by 113,000 + 125,000 (diff between 2016 D lead and 2018 R lead) = final estimated R lead of 238,000 on election night.

That should be a 4-5 point Scott victory and a 1.5-2 point DeSantis victory.

[Tennessean4Bush]

That would be sweet.