Posted on 10/31/2018 8:33:06 PM PDT by Az Joe
Arizona citizens, vote McSally...
McS’s lead isn’t seven but she does have a lead, and it’s hard, meaning the indies have all been flushed out.
AZ Rs hugely outperforming Ds: so far up 100,000 in absentee/early voting; R women OUTPERFORMING D women!!
And, congress wise, there may be a surprise on election night.
If it is fairly muted like this for the next couple of days, the GOP has a shot at actually leading the EV and absentee combined going into election day.
I have been prepared that the Dems will probably take the lead but by much less than the 96K lead in 2016. Been preparing for about a 40K lead.
Fingers crossed.
It’s not seven, but McSally leads and it’s a HARD lead (tremendous allocation of indies to Enema).
McSally will win.
There may be a surprise or two in the Congressional races.
Overall, yesterday, Rs gained 600!
By election day in 2016, Ds were up 96,000
I estimate they will gain net 35,000 by election day (70% of 50,000, their 2016 Sunday total), or Rs will finish up 30,000 by election day.
That’s a net flip of 159,937!
Trump won by 113,000 + 125,000 (diff between 2016 D lead and 2018 R lead) = final estimated R lead of 238,000 on election night.
That should be a 4-5 point Scott victory and a 1.5-2 point DeSantis victory.
That would be sweet.
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