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Hurricane Dorian Live Thread
NHC/NOAA ^ | 28 August 2019 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.





Satellite Imagery Dorian

NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)

Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: alert; dorian; florida; hurricane; hurricanedorian; live; livehurricanedorian; miami; nautinurse; noaa; tropical
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To: NautiNurse

Depending upon how well built and equipped that shelter is, and I can’t find any info on that BTW, it may have been a good call.

Hope to heck those employees are getting hazard pay, though....


1,241 posted on 09/02/2019 5:34:38 AM PDT by mewzilla (Break out the mustard seeds)
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To: mewzilla; All

LIVE streaming from Grand Bahama TV, “ZNS”...

https://znsbahamas.com/

Returned to CO from FL, Jax on Sunday PM.
Lots of rain overnight on Fri and Sat, half inch plus each night.


1,242 posted on 09/02/2019 5:37:17 AM PDT by GRRRRR (Make America Greater Than Ever Before!)
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To: NautiNurse

Yeah really! Supposedly the storm is not in the direct area but I really couldn’t find a map showing where the storm is in relationship to the disney island.


1,243 posted on 09/02/2019 5:38:31 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Maga: USA supports Trump. Home of the Free because of the brave.)
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To: zzeeman

How long does it take to completely replace the eyewall,any estimates on the new eye size?


1,244 posted on 09/02/2019 5:39:40 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Maga: USA supports Trump. Home of the Free because of the brave.)
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To: zzeeman

So, the conventional wisdom is that landfall won’t be in Florida? Why are the airports closing? A lot of rain and wind expected?


1,245 posted on 09/02/2019 5:46:31 AM PDT by Jrabbit
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To: rodguy911

I doubt those are his kids...


1,246 posted on 09/02/2019 5:48:46 AM PDT by EVO X
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To: GRRRRR

Just thinking...there are going to be tens of thousands of people, especially in the Abacos and on Grand Bahama, in need of potable water...

Hope the government there has made plans to get it to them.


1,247 posted on 09/02/2019 5:51:22 AM PDT by mewzilla (Break out the mustard seeds)
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To: mewzilla; rodguy911
Pardon my crude illustration. Note legend (10 miles) bottom right corner. Arrow depicts path of Dorian. Way too close for my comfort. Perhaps a fearless, youthful group of Disney employees enjoyed the adventure.


1,248 posted on 09/02/2019 5:55:02 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Will trans-Atlantic trains cross over or under the ocean?)
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To: Jrabbit
A hurricane is not a dot on a map.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

1,249 posted on 09/02/2019 5:58:20 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Will trans-Atlantic trains cross over or under the ocean?)
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To: NautiNurse

I agree. But if Disney wanted to leave a well-trained, well-equipped, highly-frickin’-paid, skeleton crew there to keep watch, I can understand that. As long as all of my previously mentioned conditions were met. :-)


1,250 posted on 09/02/2019 5:58:58 AM PDT by mewzilla (Break out the mustard seeds)
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To: NautiNurse
I can now see a distinct move to the north on this latest radar sequence.((Sorry if the image comes out too big for your screen.))


1,251 posted on 09/02/2019 6:02:48 AM PDT by Blennos
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To: Blennos

And there she is!

Good post & grab!


1,252 posted on 09/02/2019 6:06:11 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (The media is after us. Trump's just in the way.)
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To: rodguy911
I am not a met so I don't have a science-based answer. My memory from past storms is that you are looking at about 6-8 hours, roughly.

If you look at the image, you can see a rough approximation of the new eye size.

ERC GIF

1,253 posted on 09/02/2019 6:07:19 AM PDT by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: mewzilla
Disney described the shelter on Castaway Cay built for a Category 5 hurricane. Generally, this means built to withstand 160-170 mph.

Dorian boasted sustained winds to 185 mph with gusts to 220 mph at landfall over Great Abaco. More like a Category 6-7 hurricane, if there was such a designation. Since Castaway Cay did not encounter the eyewall, the Disney employees were likely spared the strongest winds. Still too close for comfort, as a wobble would have been devastating.

1,254 posted on 09/02/2019 6:11:07 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Will trans-Atlantic trains cross over or under the ocean?)
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To: Blennos

Holding my breath until it clears north of Cape Canaveral Wednesday. Not gonna breathe until then...


1,255 posted on 09/02/2019 6:13:05 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Will trans-Atlantic trains cross over or under the ocean?)
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To: Blennos

Looks like it’s beginning to bend north.


1,256 posted on 09/02/2019 6:13:56 AM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
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To: Jrabbit
So, the conventional wisdom is that landfall won’t be in Florida? Why are the airports closing? A lot of rain and wind expected?

Well, the projected path based on modeling indicates (at this time) no landfall in Florida.

On the projected path (with no Florida landfall) there is a good likelihood of Tropical Storm force and Hurricane force winds up the Florida coast from Martin County northward. Yes, potentially 6-10" of rain on the immediate coast, and storm surge up to 6+ feet is possible.

If you remember Matthew in 2016, it may end up being analogous to that storm along the Florida Atlantic coast.

1,257 posted on 09/02/2019 6:16:48 AM PDT by zzeeman ("We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality.")
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To: NautiNurse

The winds are one problem. But while you hide from winds, you run from water. And there’s really nowhere to run. I hope that bunker has some means to power pumps and has potable water.

As long as there’s due diligence by Disney, informed consent by the employees along with one mother of a paycheck, I don’t have a problem with Disney doing this. Especially if it helps any locals employed get back to work faster. Folks are gonna need those paychecks.


1,258 posted on 09/02/2019 6:17:07 AM PDT by mewzilla (Break out the mustard seeds)
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To: mewzilla

It will be interesting to learn about the Disney employee adventure. I have doubts whether we will ever know the rest of the story.


1,259 posted on 09/02/2019 6:21:07 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Will trans-Atlantic trains cross over or under the ocean?)
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To: NautiNurse

https://mobile.twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1168495988333600769

Dear God, look at Freeport.


1,260 posted on 09/02/2019 6:23:54 AM PDT by SE Mom (Screaming Eagle mom)
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