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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
One thing I did for my Florida family was buy them solar powered cell phone chargers. Communication is one of the most difficult things after a big storm.
Any idea why there is no 8:00 update from the hurricane center?
For sure forward speed is all important in this thing and if it slows down that’s a really bad news
The general shape of the NHC track / cone is similar to the HWRF 06z that arrived about 1-hour ago.
This model is the "highest resolution" with an innner-nest model grid of 1.5 kilometers. The ECMWF is 9-km and GFS is 13-km, so HWRF is considerably more detailed for 'canes. pic.twitter.com/2YOHQXSEQF— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 29, 2019
Thanks fish I think will be alright you should be out of the loop on this one too so A Few of us won’t get much route still hard to tell exactly where this thing’s gonna go
BookMarkDorianTrack
“Storm Of The Century” was a good book.
Years ago, I was in the Keys and stopped by the mass grave in Islamorada where the veterans were buried. very solemn.
I can’t possibly imagine how hellish it must have bene in those camps as the wind, rain and storm surge hit.
You are welcome!
bkmk
So it's clear Joe B is playing the ensemble.
Sh*t that looks like a direct hit at me.
Not lookin’ good! Even though we’re as far inland as one can be in Florida, it ain’t lookin’ good! Stay safe!
"Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this shear diminishing within 12-24 hours.
With lower shear and very warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids during the first day or two."
That intensity forecast of theirs currently peaks at 125mph sustained winds, putting it at a solid Cat 3 and within handshake distance of a Cat 4.
Also of note... with the now-forecasted turn to the north while over Florida, the whole thing is gonna be slowing down.
In fact, it looks like it could take a full 24 hours to cover the last 100+/- miles from the Atlantic to Orlando... and still could be a full hurricane once it gets to Orlando.
Will there be an increase in size of the storm over all size along with an increase in intensity
News sites in Florida now calling for a cat 4 at landfall.
Unknown. That’s storm-dependent... it’s a weird thing. Andrew as a Cat 5 was about as compact as you can get. Others are less intense, yet enormous in scope.
Right now, it’s hard to guess on Dorian until it gets it’s act fully together... which should happen within the next 24 hours or so.
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