Hurricane Dorian Live Thread

NHC/NOAA ^ | 28 August 2019 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.

Satellite Imagery Dorian

NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)

Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay

[SE Mom]

I’m getting dizzy from this storm. More than most it’s confounding!

I see the models roughly in agreement but remember reading yesterday this scenario would give temporary, false comfort and not to change preparations if we saw this, but it would be great if it just skedaddled it’s way due east.

[rodguy911]

After watching that 18 minute video by the guy named Berny he showed brilliantly just how difficult it is to track these things.Basically, after Sunday night they are going with a hand-off of Dorian being steered by an ever weakening low pressure moving west of the Keys to a yet to be named Upper level high pressure that will become a weak steering current and who knows how it will take Dorian when or where.

About as tough as tracking storms can get with just about as many opinions as well.

[alancarp]

Category 4.

[tomkat]

Category 4

If not, it'll do til one comes along.

yikes  :-\

[musicman]

BFLR

[NautiNurse]

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian

Summary Of 800 PM EDT...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 400 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
About 575 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
Max Sustained Winds...125 MPH...
Moving...WNW at 10 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...950 MB...

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 mi.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[NautiNurse]

Corrected for Category 4 130 mph sustained winds...

Category 4 Hurricane Dorian

Summary Of 830 PM EDT...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...About 400 MI E of the Northwestern Bahamas
About 575 MI E of West Palm Beach FL
Max Sustained Winds...130 MPH...
Moving...WNW at 10 MPH...
Minimum Pressure...950 MB...

[CJ Wolf]

My prediction is kill devil hills nc landfall.

[rodguy911]

Is it just me or is that a tight little circle of hurricane force winds? Gotta wonder if that's likely to expand or not?
My guess is one of the worst factors of this storm will be if it slows down and starts dumping lots and lots of rain.Along with higher than normal tides that could be a really bad flooding scenario.
Do you buy Bernies theory of the upper level low off the keys steering Dorian for now and than Sunday night a hand-off to an upper level low which seems difficult to define?

[SE Mom]

Thank you, NN. Hope you’re getting family squared away...

[Rebelbase]

” all Jamaicans flown in to cut and burn the cane fields, “

I rode past those cane fields south of Clewiston one night when they were burning them. It seemed like it went for miles and miles.

Always enjoyed eating at the old Clewiston BBQ.

[rodguy911]

Than you are buying into what Bernie claims will happen that Dorian may not even hit the Fla. coast but skirt all three,Fla. Ga. SC and hit KDH on the outer banks.very well might happen,I'm not smart enough to know.

[rodguy911]

That place used to be awesome haven’t eaten there in years now.

[CJ Wolf]

I dont know bernie. So nothing to buy into. I dont think it will hit Florida.

[NautiNurse]

Thank you, dear! Bringing Mom over to Gulf Coast tomorrow. All packed and ready to go. I hope you are ready for this crazy storm.

[NautiNurse]

Very healthy storm. The loop is mesmerizing.

[Rebelbase]

I don't think it's open anymore.

[rodguy911]

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqJDnzLvPYKV

Bernie Rayno with an 18 minute video here,really good.

[Rebelbase]

I found the menu of the place from lord knows when.

Beer was .39. Rib plate was $1.79 with fries, garlic toast and slaw.

https://i.imgur.com/gnk9jYO.jpg

[alancarp]

Hearing that 'hand-off' theory from multiple sources and it's not uncommon for other storm types, too, so yeah - that has a ring of truth to it.

It is a relatively compact storm, but that can change. Here's a quote from popsci.com about that:

"When Irma rapidly grew into a hurricane on the morning of August 31, 2017, its hurricane force winds only extended 15 miles from the center of the storm. To put that in perspective, the storm's core of intense winds was only about the size of Florida's Lake Okeechobee. But by the time Irma made landfall 10 days later, it was large enough to engulf the entire state."

They go on to suggest that storms grow as their organization improves and evolves. Eyewall replacement cycles contribute to this, too. Dorian is looking really good right now with a cleared-out eye, so... tomorrow might mean some changes.

Unfortunately, a slowing storm may also help it grow before landfall. Oy.