NEW FORECAST MODEL: HWRF just came in...It expects a landfall of a major hurricane in Central or North Florida. #Dorian helps pump the ridge to its NE -- meaning no escape route. pic.twitter.com/zanSF9x7qe— Andrew Wulfeck (@andrewwulfeck) September 1, 2019
Man, oh man.
Close Shave region: Southern Brevard County
If Dorian wobbled just 10-20 miles west this goes to 70 gusting 100+. If it wobbled 10-20 east it's TStorm Gusts & thundershowers. North thereof playing with fire.
NWS Discussions, Forecasts, all direct linked:https://t.co/6xQnVWSWOb pic.twitter.com/kUgk8KqjVN— crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) September 1, 2019
And due to prayer, Jesus compensates! ...storm veers out to sea.
That model has always been an outlier. Most of the models (and the ones I consider most reliable such as the UK Met) still predict a northward jog keeping Dorian well off the FL coast.
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_05_ens.gif