Seems like the guy might know about which he speaks...Much more on the site for those Freepers who read articles...
Really? What kind of statistically illiterate would write that sentence? The number of confirmed cases will always grow until the virus is completely eradicated. The news is that the number of new cases has been falling for a week, and is now but a fraction of the recent levels. But to be clear to those who DIDN'T follow the link... Lipsitch didn't write that nonsense; his interviewer did.
Ping
Lipsitch says that this is an uncontainable virus and is likely to be widespread in the US. He also said that it might be a year before there is a vaccine.
Given the source of this article, I am inclined to believe the opposite of its assertion.
Although, I’d have to wait for Dick Morris to agree with the article before I could be certain.
Thank you for this article. It is a quick, easy read. His observations reflect what we’ve been watching here on FR in the daily threads.
Seriously, though, great article. A couple of things stood out to me:
Vaccine efforts are very much needed, but I think we should be clear that they won’t necessarily succeed. There’s a lot of effort being put into them, but not every disease has a vaccine.
Specifically, RNA viruses with highly mutable sections that present themselves to the immune system with variable markers are exquisitely difficult to pin down based on those markers. It's like going after a suspect based on the mask he's wearing when he changes it out constantly. It's the reason we don't have HIV vaccines yet.
There’s likely to be a period of widespread transmission in the U.S., and I hope we will avert the kind of chaos that some other places are seeing. That’s likely if we continue to be prepared, but I think it’s going to be a new virus that we have to deal with. That won’t be because the United States government has failed to contain it, it will mean that this is an uncontainable virus. If we’re dealing with it, it’s because everybody’s going to be dealing with it. I think that’s a likely scenario.
Or because the virus has mutated into a more manageable form over time. This is apparently what happened to the original Spanish Flu virus, but a less manageable form is quite possible. As the Professor points out, the "quarantine" efforts in China aren't really quarantine, they're cordon sanitaire, inside of which contagion from infected to uninfected is very difficult to address. It's like those poor souls trapped on the cruise ship with infected passengers - they're not going anywhere and they will be exposed. Medical personnel are in that position as well, and prayers up for the lot of them because they'll need them.
Good find, thanks.
Corona Virus - Declared Cases - Statistics
Cases Declared as of This Date
. New Cases This Day
. . Percent Increase of Declared Cases Over the Previous Day
. . . Fatalities Declared as of This Date
. . . . New Fatalities Declared This Day
. . . . . Percent Increase of Declared Fatalities Over the Previous Day
. . . . . . Individuals Who Have Been Declared Recovered From the Illness
. . . . . . . Number of People Declared to have Recovered on This Date
. . . . . . . . Percentage Increase of Declared Recovered over the Previous Day
. . . . . . . . . Numbers of Still Active Cases (cases - fatalities - recovered)
Date Time Day . . . . . . . . . . Mortality Rate (fatalities / sum of fatalities + recovered)
01/27/20 20:30 MON 4,474 107 63 4,304 62.94%
01/28/20 23:00 TUE 6,057 1,583 35.38% 132 25 23.36% 110 47 74.60% 5,815 54.55%
01/29/20 21:00 WED 7,783 1,726 28.50% 170 38 28.79% 133 23 20.91% 7,480 56.11%
01/30/20 21:30 THU 9,776 1,993 25.61% 213 43 25.29% 187 54 40.60% 9,376 53.25%
01/31/20 19:00 FRI 11,374 1,598 16.35% 259 46 21.60% 252 65 34.76% 10,863 50.68%
02/01/20 23:00 SAT 14,568 3,194 28.08% 305 46 17.76% 340 88 34.92% 13,923 47.29%
02/02/20 23:30 SUN 17,392 2,824 19.38% 362 57 18.69% 487 147 43.24% 16,543 42.64%
02/03/20 21:45 MON 20,613 3,221 18.52% 427 65 17.96% 663 176 36.14% 19,523 39.17%
02/04/20 21:13 TUE 24,516 3,903 18.93% 493 66 15.46% 906 243 36.65% 23,117 35.24%
02/05/20 21:23 WED 28,280 3,764 15.35% 565 72 14.60% 1,198 292 32.23% 26,517 32.05%
02/06/20 21:33 THU 31,472 3,192 11.29% 638 73 12.92% 1,588 390 32.55% 29,246 28.66%
02/07/20 21:33 FRI 34,888 3,416 10.85% 724 86 13.48% 2,123 535 33.69% 32,041 25.43%
02/08/20 21:43 SAT 37,549 2,661 7.63% 813 89 12.29% 2,718 595 28.03% 34,018 23.02%
02/09/20 22:03 SUN 40,540 2,991 7.97% 910 97 11.93% 3,383 665 24.47% 36,247 21.20%
02/10/20 23:03 MON 43,111 2,571 6.34% 1,018 108 11.87% 4,098 715 21.14% 37,995 19.90%
02/11/20 23:13 TUE 45,188 2,077 4.82% 1,116 98 9.63% 4,856 758 18.50% 39,216 18.69%
Data collected over time at the Johns Hopkins University Web Site LINKTwo things that should be kept in the discussion - China changed the definition of ‘confirmed’ and they have periodically run out of test kits.
A case is now only considered confirmed if the patient displays symptoms and as a result of the test kit shortages there will be oscillations in the number of confirmed cases that do not reflect the real rate of increase.
Of course, if you have shown symptoms but they can’t test you due to lack of a test kit, they don’t count you as a confirmed case, either. All this together simply masks the problem, but I’d guess that the Chinese trying to save face is going to make it all moot since we don’t really know the accurate statistics.
And while they don’t say in the article that this is the flu, they do compare it to the flu and that is misleading in itself. It has some distinct differences (they do, to their credit, point some of those out) that make it much more dangerous.
The epidemiologist that is interviewed, Lipsitch, offers an opinion that there will be a 9% mortality rate overall and that this thing is here to stay and can not be contained. I think the 9% figure is optimistic and the question of containability is still open, but he’s the expert.
Gathering steam here, and falling off on another thread...doctors disagreeing...fascinating.
Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics
Seems like the guy might know about which he speaks...
...
Seems to me like he’s basing his opinion on reports in the media.
The Coronavirus web page at the CDC is very quiet.
Quite simply , I do not believe the Chinese government will be forthright with true stats. The affect on their economy will outweigh a more rational approach. Life is cheap in China and when people are subjugated to the extent that they are it has to be a Stockholm situation x1000 . It is not in China’s interest to be open with the world. It is not very wise to deny God as they do . I post this in response to the article as this man bases his opinion on possibly very muted information and statistic’s .
The ChiComs' data says its plateauing out. If you can't trust them who can you trust? And remember, no one is better at torturing the data until it confesses...Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
LOL...
Some folks need to perpetrate the bad news to have coat tails to ride while they last.
So much contradictory info out there now that we know less for sure than during the first 2 weeks.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harvard-university-professor-and-two-chinese-nationals-charged-three-separate-china-related
***with a death toll of more than 1,000.***
Still has a long way to go to match the common flu deaths in the USA. 80,000 this year.
This is ridiculous. Flu season will be over in another month or two. In a month from now it wont even be in the news cycle.
FYI: New numbers reported today:
BIG News....Agenda Free TV You Tube Stream reporting:
Hubei Province changed the protocols for reporting...
14,840 new cases in Hubei Province today...(with 13,332 of them in Wuhan) and 242 deaths in Hubei...
Total Reported so far...60,000 now (based on new reporting protocols) cases 1357 deaths
As per:
Agenda Free News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bi9ihln5OE
Steve Lookner: https://twitter.com/lookner
Louis Dobbs on Fox Business News program tonight
BNO News:
TWITTER https://twitter.com/BNONews
website;https://bnonews.com/
CNBC: Eunice Yoon https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv