Posted on 03/02/2020 4:10:22 PM PST by 11th_VA
Economist Warwick McKibbin estimates up to 68 million people will die from the coronavirus, including as many as almost 100,000 Australians.
Preliminary economic modelling based on past viruses by Professor McKibbin suggests the loss to Australia's economic output will be between $US4 billion ($6.1 billion) and $US103 billion ($157 billion) in the first year, depending on how the virus spreads, stimulus interventions by governments and actions by health authorities.
The local economy's annual gross domestic product (GDP) loss would be between 0.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent in 2020, if a pandemic breaks out.
Professor McKibbin, a former RBA board member now on assignment at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said that even a contained outbreak could "significantly impact" the global economy in the short run.
"In the case where COVID-19 develops into a global pandemic, our results suggest that the cost can escalate quickly," he notes...
...If the virus reaches a global pandemic, as looks almost certain, between 15 million and 68 million people around the world will die, the modelling suggests.
A global pandemic would result in between 21,000 and 96,000 Australians dying. (In comparison in Australia, influenza on average causes 3500 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 doctor consultations each year according to the Influenza Specialist Group.)
More than 12 million people could die in China under the worst case scenario.
Even for the most benign pandemic scenario, 236,000 Americans would die compared to 55,000 Americans who die from the typical flu each year.
(Excerpt) Read more at afr.com ...
That's what I'm talkin about ...
Crock of shift.
...but how many Australians die of flu every year?
Bullshit.
Nobody knows exact numbers at this point. Making such declarations is absurd. Extrapolating the future from an incomplete picture is simply looking for attention, IMO.
The Australian Financial Review is a very leftist newspaper. Supposed to be business paper, but it anti-business. Just like in the USA where the media is trying to blame everything on Trump, the Aussie media is trying to blame things on our Prime Minister Morrison and bring him down. So they are hyping the decline of the economy and trying to get people to panic. Posting something from the AFR is like something from the NYTimes or MSNBC.
Far as I know, ain’t nobody got a “no expiration date” stamped on their forehead.
If it gets that bad, it is what it is.
If life is a movie, we’re extras that are in a shot for 2 seconds :)
Huge margins of error. Interesting as an exercise. Now comes the test.
Per the article in the 7th line/paragraph -”about 3500”.
“If the virus reaches a global pandemic, as looks almost certain, between 15 million and 68 million people around the world will die...”
“According to the World Health Organization, 56 million people die each year...”
“Worldwide, there are slightly more than 131 million births each year.”
So, even if the virus doubles the deaths, there will still be more people next year than this year.
See the obvious problem here? People who are experts at one thing need to NOT assume they have any clue at all what they are talking about in a totally different much more difficult field like Infection disease and Pandemics
Every day since they have been reporting the dead, TOTAL UP TO 6 AS OF TODAY!
.
68 million will die...
I agree, give or take 67,975,000 to 67,985,000.
Garbage in. Garbage out
“Asteroid could strike US Capitol in the next 10 years.”
Thanks for your reality post about this bs article:
The Australian Financial Review is a very leftist newspaper. Supposed to be business paper, but it anti-business. Just like in the USA where the media is trying to blame everything on Trump, the Aussie media is trying to blame things on our Prime Minister Morrison and bring him down. So they are hyping the decline of the economy and trying to get people to panic. Posting something from the AFR is like something from the NYTimes or MSNBC.
“Per the article in the 7th line/paragraph -”about 3500”.”
Probably a typo - just about everyone here says that Coronovirus is no worse than the flu.
‘Even for the most benign pandemic scenario, 236,000 Americans would die compared to 55,000 Americans who die from the typical flu each year.’
The author is full of B.S. deaths from the regular flu for the 2018-2019 was 65,000+.
The current WORLD death rates just so far, 85,000+ for the flu and about 3,000 for Cov-19.
Cooler weather is coming to Australia. I sincerely feel for them and would rather be here than there.
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