Posted on 03/24/2020 7:03:16 PM PDT by gas_dr
During the gulf war, reporters were broadcasting from undisclosed locations from somewhere in the Mediterranean. Tonight this will be a brief update, and I am also on the front line tonight
I will apply the preamble from the previous three threads, you are welcome to read it to understand my methodology and where I am generating my sources.
Today has been an interesting day from the data. Yesterday, there were multiple bad reports from Europe, however that has reversed today. One has to wonder if there was a weekend backlog because of the rise in numbers. However what is very compelling is the United States Data, the world data, and particularly the data from Italy which means that there is now three days of improving rates of new infection.
COUNTRY ANALYSIS:
CHINA: In the last two days, 41 and 39 new cases respectively. All the usual caveats apply regarding the validity of this data
ITALY: Growth Factor last 3 days: 0.84 - 0.86 - 1.09. This data demonstrate a three day trend of either decreasing cases or linear expansion. This is the first three days that this has reversed. This means that there has not been exponential expansion in over a week. It appears that the inflection point was march 22.
UNITED STATES: Growth Factor last 3 days: 1.94 - 1.08 - 1.08. This is great news for two reasons, the trend has gone from exponential to algebraic for the last two days. New York is widely accepted to have the most aggressive testing and as such gives us a pretty good view (like a country) here in America. Also, I note that Washington growth factor is <1.0 and New Jersey is <1.0 We have been warned to look for bigger numbers the next couple of days as testing expands, and I think this may be true, but there continues to be increasing optimism that perhaps the disease is being limited in the United States. New York is the epicenter, so will continue to watch there. BUT, and THIS IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND, the population of the New York Region hot spot is 20.1M, The overall penetration of the population is 0.1%. More on this later
SPAIN: Growth factor last 3 days: 0.83 - 1.94 - 1.08 Algebraic trend today, however what is interesting about these numbers is in every other country there is a very large single day spike in the data. Will watch this closely, however I am hopeful this remains algebraic.
GERMANY: Growth Factor last 3 days: 0.99 - 1.66 - 0.94 So here again we see the Monday spike, but then outside of that <1.0 growth factor. Interestingly, Germany has a very low death rate. This should be studied closely
FRANCE: Growth Factor last 3 Days: 0.80 - 2.46 - 0.63 Here again is the Monday ugly number bracketed by encouraging data. Not sure how to analyze this, hopefully and outlier day on Monday, but will continue to trend the data through Friday.
UK: Growth Factor last 3 days: 0.64 - 1.45 - 1.47 Probably on the upward curve. Will continue to monitor tis extremely closely
Switzerland Growth Factor last 3 days; 0.48 - 1.95 - 0.81 Switzerland also had miserable Monday, but now improved today. Will put this country on the watch list.
GLOBALLY: Growth Factor last 24 hours was 1.05. The previously 24 hours was 1.21, however this had several countries with the spike that is not being continued in the last 24 hours.
Take home: Is it possible that we have regressed to algebraic expansion globally? Yes, I think so. This would mean that globally we are beyond the inflection point. America has remains <1.10 growth factor the last several days showing linear instead of exponential growth. The daily mantra from Washington seems to show some optimism in ending the lockdown and seeing the disease controlled.
But here is the most compelling data point of the day. The Italian population is 60.48M Given deceleration, we can calculate population penetrance 0.11%. China population penetrance 0.004%, South Korea 0.017% population penetrance.
What this means is that if we assume Italy was the worst case scenario and is now past its peak, assuming a total population penetrance of 0.15% and applying to 330M population of the United States, we would have a total of 495,000 cases. Compared to Influfenza: Cases: 30M - 40M Medical Care: 300,000 - 500,000 Deaths 30,000-50,000
If the population penetrance remains at the rate above, then we can expect 7000 - 12000 deaths which is a very generous application of death rates.
Looking forward to the usual donnybrook and discussion.
Quick analysis tonight, but the data support some interesting forecasts. I am sure I will be deemed a flu bro and excoriated but I think there is good cause for optimism.
I saw US numbers took a big jump today, but I haven’t looked closely at the details.
Are we still pre-peak do you think?
Have the NYC serious cases overwhelmed the local Hospital Capacity
How much headroom do they have?
I love your posts and look forward to them!
I believe the US has seen peak
NYC May be an exception
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-updating-charts-us-world-compare
I predicted peak would be march 22 - 24, all the data points to nonexponential growth so the inflection point has been reached or curve has flattened. We have been cautioned that we are doing a lot of testing, so I imagine the numbers will stay in the 10,000 range, but what is important is that I think the curve will have flattened
I don't think you can look at this globally and have to look at it country by country. Italy appears to be on a linear growth curve. The US as of yesterday was still on an exponential growth. South Korea has tapered off and new cases are a fraction of resolved cases. Taiwan never had anything other than random uncorrelated infections, etc.
The important thing is that social distance and other public health measures are essential to containing and controlling this.
Death numbers for the last 3 days
3/22 413 +111 (From the day before)
3/23 553 +140
3/24 775 +222 (as of now 10:10 PM EST)
New cases
3/23 +10,168
3/24 +11,074 (as of now 10:10 PM EST)
Keep up the good work.
It is not exponential in the US. look at the graphs and data. If growth factor is less than 1.10, it implies algebraic growth. The transition from exponential to algebraic is the inflection point. That appears to have happened.
What floored me today was the actual penetration into the population. We also know that < 10% of total tests are (+). Advanced data considerations: Washington is on the downward trend. The question is how many people in NYC got the hell out and do they seed other areas in the country?
Seems like you can ask the folks of New Jersey. Doesn’t seem to be spreading as fast elsewhere.
I don’t know, but this certainly didn’t help. From Feb 09, 2020 =>
______
Commissioner Oxiris Barbot
@NYCHealthCommr
Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus.
A Guide to Lunar New Year in NYC
Where to celebrate the holiday.
nycgo.com
9:10 AM · Feb 9, 2020·Hootsuite Inc.
https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1226508570646269954
Do you have a ping list?
I read that as Worldoometer
I am a 20 year freeper and have no idea how to create a ping list :(
How do you calculate growth factor?
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