Posted on 04/19/2020 12:19:22 PM PDT by Freeze923
Something stinks in the State reporting. We are 4 to weeks into this virus. And the recovery data is not being reported accurately. Or should I say certain places data on recoveries are about as believable as the China Numbers.
From Worldometer Data on 4/18
State - percent of cases recovered
South Carolina - 64.5% Oklahoma - 59% Montana - 49% Minnesota - 49% (kind of an outlier) Wyoming - 49% Tennessee - 48% Alaska - 47% Maine - 45% Arkansas - 47% Iowa - 40% New Hampshire - 38% South Dakota - 36% North Dakota - 32% Nevada - 31% Idaho - 27% West Virginia - 26% New Mexico - 26% Texas - 25%
What do all these States have in common??
Bottom of the list
State - percent of cases recovered
Michigan - 10% New York - 9% Maryland - 7% Colorado - 5% California - 4% Missouri - 3% Florida - 3% Wisconsin - 2% Pennsylvania - 2% Nebraska - 1% New Jersey - 1% Arizona - 1% Ohio - 1% Alabama - 0.4% Connecticut - 0.4% Rhode Island - 0.2% Louisiana - 0.2% Illinois - 0.2% Georgia - 0.2% Indiana - 0.1% Mississippi, Oregon, Vermont - 0% (not one recovery reported)
So Statistically speaking don't get the covid-19 in a blue state (or Mississippi) because you will never recover.
Exactly my point they don’t make it easy — they could easily put it in a nice column.
Total cases - Deaths - Active case = Recoveries
I throw it onto an excel spreadsheet get percentage recovered
I was way off, it’s actually about 95% of cases that are mild.
I doubt many of the mild cases are followed to their outcome.
They would mostly be recovering at home.
Worldwide, 97% mild.
Active Cases
1,619,236
Currently Infected Patients
1,565,021 (97%)
in Mild Condition
54,215 (3%)
Serious or Critical
I’ve been noticing for weeks that my state, Missouri, run by a petty tyrant governor, doesn’t give any recovery numbers on the local news - just “new cases”, probably most from testing and probably most mild. Our death rate is low and our hospitals are half empty, except for St. Louis which is where it started here. Also all of our numbers go up and then down and then up, suspiciously, as if nobody in the state can keep track of what they said yesterday. And we’re still under lockdown until May 5th. BUT the Governor of Arkansas, which reports we get because I’m in SW MO., didn’t lock down his state, gives accurate daily reports including recoveries, and has a lot more on the ball. Both Govs Republican but ours in MO is a globalist.
I guess you missed my sarcasm.
My point why can some states run out and report BAD things (deaths) everyday — some cases twice a day.
But they are NOT reporting GOOD things like recoveries.
It is an impossibility that Vermont has zero recoveries and New Hampshire next door has 531. So Vermont and as you state Arizona are not reporting recoveries. Why NOT?? That positive informantion is at least secondary in importance to reporting on deaths. Why are some states not reporting it?
The only two numbers I take seriously from worldometers right now is reported cases and reported deaths. Those are likely to be accurate. I suspect, at least in the US, that recoveries is incomplete due to things like HIPPA, preventing reporting due to privacy.
That said, the ‘cases’ number ONLY reflects people who bothered to go to a doctor and who then managed to wrestle a test from the health “care” bureaucrats. I’m serious, I’ve had a couple family members try to get tested and getting a test when they had probable symptoms was like pulling teeth. And even then they screwed around for a week before the results came back. You can bet there are a LOT of people who had basic run-of-the-mill crappy cold symptoms and didn’t want to bother with our cobweb-of-red-tape medical system. I don’t. I NEVER go to the doctor for mild symptoms because it’s normally a waste of a $100 copay to be told to buy some over-the-counter crap that I could have just saved the step and bought anyhow.
Unfortunately, there is currently no good data on the potentially large pool of people who just suffered yet another lousy cold and got over it. If I were to guess (and it IS just a guess to be honest) the overall real death rate is well below 1% for most cases, though this virus seems to be particularly cruel to vulnerable populations.
IMO, one thing that needs to be investigated is the nursing home system in general. The terrible deaths being seen in nursing homes may well be due at least in part to this virus being more potent, but I have a bad feeling it also will turn out to be a shameful indictment of the nursing homes in general. Personally, I’m rooting for the “big one” before I ever end up in one of those places.
That strains all mathematical credulity.
Changes in United States Data following the new CDC guidelines on “Case” and “Death” definition
“Following new CDC guidelines: “As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.
A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19” [source]
This change is a further example of one of the many reasons why the label “confirmed cases” (used by some to designate total cases) is incorrect (see definitions for more details). The US CDC (and Worldometer) has always used the label “Total Cases.” Canada is another example where the “total number includes publicly reported confirmed and probable cases [source]
On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as “probable,” defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent” [source].
From April 14 onward, New York City has provided - and will continue to provide - the updated number of probable deaths in its daily reports.
On April 15, in the daily press briefing, New York Governor Cuomo said that “we will begin reporting all categories of fatalities pursuant to new CDC guidelines and are contacting facilities to get updated numbers.” He also added that there may be additional people who died that have not been counted because not in a hospital. In the April 15 update, the New York State Department of Health official website had still not included (nor reported separately) the additional “probable” deaths reported by New York City the day before. On April 16, when asked about the issue, New York State officials commented on their decision to not add the New York City probable deaths in the official State count saying that probable deaths have been reported by New York City in a new and separate category, without adding the two numbers (confirmed and probable) together into a single category.
The state of Ohio is an example of a state that has started reporting total cases and deaths correctly, in accordance with the new CDC guidelines. On its “Overview dashboard” it show total cases and total deaths, while also providing the breakdown between confirmed and probable, with the note “CDC Expanded Case Definition (Probable)” and “CDC Expanded Death Definition (Probable).”
Another example is Idaho, which shows a total which includes both laboratory confirmed and probable cases.
Worldometer is also following the new CDC guideline of including both probable and confirmed in the total case and death counts.
As with similar instances in the past (with other countries), we have added the additional data on the day it was reported. If and when the historical distribution is provided, we will make the needed adjustments.
Finally, since every probable death necessarily implies a probable case, logic mandates that the adjustment be made to both deaths and cases, and not only to deaths. We have now adjusted April 14, April 15, and current data for New York State and the United States accordingly.”
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/
That's interesting.
From the Johns Hopkins site a few minutes ago, in the U.S. there have been 755,533 cases, 40,461 deaths, but only 67,172 recovered. After subtracting out the dead, that leaves 647,900 either still hospitalized, recovering at home, or just not counted. As your post illustrates, I'd say relatively few are hospitalized.
I think the reporting of those numbers isnt the best. I take those lists and put them into spreadsheets to do my own calculations on them, and you find some weird outliers and downright unbelievable numbers..
Another interesting fact about the Princess Ship is they are showing only 46 test were taken with 46 positive and current still 46 active cases. (not possible)
That is totally incorrect.
Everyone on the cruise ship was given a test. The people taken off the cruise ship said they had to test positive 3 consecutive times before being allowed to leave quarintine. So vastly more tests were conducted than 46.
They just are not being reported.
Darn right those numbers are not being updated.
States with later 1st cases also have a lag time in when recoveries begin.
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