Posted on 07/15/2020 11:59:30 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
Absolutely. But both Trafalgar and PPD know there is a severe “shy Trump voter” problem this time, and even Politico (I think) noted this about PA. They know its real.
“Sorry, but the numbers show a hugely different picture than the “polls.””
And those are mainly the MSM polls. But Rasmussen and a few other pollsters are now showing a tightening race, RAS now has Trump within 3. Factor in the hidden shy Trump voters and Trump is likely ahead by at least a few points.
Rush has mentioned this and I think there is something to it:
It may well be that they are “goosing” these national polls for Demented Perv Biteme precisely BECAUSE they know he will lose big, and that will be their excuse to claim “collusion” and “foreign interference” all over again.
We cannot discount that.
Larry, your “Justice for All” is a real Winner! I hope your message gets to the president and his campaign staff. I’m sure it will because who more than the president wants to see real justice prevail?
The Silent Majority, of all stripes, is going to carry the day.
As always, thanks.
California is being turned into Hitler’s Germany by design and on purpose by Dictator Gavin Newsom whose as corrupt, amoral, and self-serving as any Marxist ever. Believe me when I tell you the people and businesses in CA loathe and despise him.
The GOP and the Deplorables in every state need to get behind this recall. Newsom’s recall and the destruction of his political aspirations will send the Blue State governators, mayors, and city councils a clear message; you’re not wanted; get the hell out of office.
The Left is nothing if not opportunistic.
Agree. I posted the same thing yesterday:
At this point in 2016, candidate Trump replaced Corey Lewandowski with Paul Manafort to go into the convention.After the convention, nominee Trump replaced Manafort with Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway for the general election.
Should the MSM be working on their next "Trump Replaces Campaign Manager" story, just to have the spin ready when it comes?
Right now, the messaging is inconsistent. That’s for a reason: right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be... I personally think Trump is wise in NOT choosing yet and watching things shake out for a month. August is a good time to really roll out “the” message.
Also agree, but for different reasons. I think it's best for President Trump to wait until he has a nominated candidate after the convention. I posted this at the end of April:
- While it might seem like the post-convention chaos of changing the nominee might hurt the Democrats, they are a lock-step hive mentality that will simply follow the replacement.
- Replacing Biden at the convention will give the Trump campaign a permanent candidate to craft a targeted strategic message that accentuates the President's accomplishments in contrast to the Democrat candidate's weaknesses.
- Replacing Biden closer to the election will force the Trump campaign to have to remessage their campaign. This runs the risk of the President's message becoming "old news" or "trite" or "stale" if it was deployed against Biden and then recrafted for a new candidate. It sets up President Trump for charges of being "cookie cutter," suggesting that he only has "one note" that seems weaker and weaker as he tries to play it against different people.
Now, I. DON’T. BELIEVE. POLLS. I’ve given up poll analysis, but Mike Sheppard on Twit still does it, and they are ALL D=5 to D=12 (yes, 12).
I haven't given up, but I don't decompose them; I forecast probabilities based on them. If someone does what statespoll.com did last cycle and "corrects" the polls publicly, I will use those in place of the published polls.
-PJ
Amen, Larry, here is what I say:
President Trump runs his campaign and staff much like a gold medal hockey team does. They generally have about three different shifts. Every 20 to 40 seconds a new shift comes on the ice as the other one goes off. It keeps the most important players fresh. I have no problem with this as it is putting in a fresh shift. This way the enemy can never figure out any weak points, and only sees strength. Sun Tzu. PDJT also does not surround himself with yes men, instead, more stable geniuses.
I don’t. And I don’t think that’s what this is about.
In case you forgot, Trump went through essentially FIVE campaign managers in 2016: Lewandowski, Manafort, Bannon, Conway, Parscale, with Jared always an unnamed manager.
Manafort was brought in right before the convention for one job only: get Trump’s delegates to stay in line. He succeeded. He was out within five weeks.
To this day, none of the “insiders” (including myself) who wrote about the 2016 campaign are sure who was actually directing things. It appeared to be management by committee, with scheduling generally handled by Conway, strategy/message by Conway and Bannon, then Parscale finding interesting data points like how close they were in WI, PA, and MI. Jared handled the finances like a pro, doing the campaign on a shoestring.
Right now, the messaging is inconsistent. That’s for a reason: right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—whether the main target here is the economy and reopening or whether it’s BLM/antifa riots, or whether it’s a combo of the two with the Deep State thrown in.
I personally think Trump is wise in NOT choosing yet and watching things shake out for a month. August is a good time to really roll out “the” message. I have sent the campaign a suggestion for a “Justice for ALL” motif that would address the
*Injustice of destroying businesses through continued lockdowns
*Injustice of ordinary citizens in big cities afraid for their lives because of rioters
*Injustice of no-knock warrants (a sop to Libertarians and some on the left, and yes, you have to have SOMETHING that appeals to other than conservatives)
*Injustice of a two-tiered system of elites getting away with everything (the coupsters).
I think properly refined and focused, this message could be a real killer. But before it comes out, Trump must make sure that the citizens of the big blue cities are ready for it. They are alcoholics who haven’t quite reached “Leaving Las Vegas” levels yet. They must BEG for the help. (Not the mayors, the people). Also, I think the lockdowns will wear REALLY thin especially on parents who are nuts to get their kids out of the house and back to gubment schools.
Trump will have to carefully pit the “people” against their mayors and governors, which I think can be done. It will be trickier in TX and AZ where he needs local help to have rallies, etc. But the entire message must be framed as “In so many ways we’ve become a lawless, uncivil society. Time to take back our lives.”
Now, I. DON’T. BELIEVE. POLLS....................
Genius stuff, Larry, I read this audibly to my wife and she thinks so, too...not far from what PDJT is doing...we do agree his team is like a hockey shift...and a team, not one manager. I think the obvious thing here is the “manager” is PDJT himself, the others fill their specialty roles...it is a kitty laser pointer to “fire” Pascale”, and really, we’d believe PDJT will fire another campaign manager for more kitty tease effect between now and November... the usual Freeper “sky is falling” shallow thinkers will think their world if falling apart.
PDJT in my book is +15-20 right now.
Strategy is NOT the issue.
Things are much DIFFERENT in the 2020 DIGITAL realm than they were in 2016.
That is why these two workers were re-positioned and re-assigned... and neither is complaining or bad mouthing Trump, which would mean he knows what he's doing and what he needs to WIN in November.
Right! It's as simple as that.
“...right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—“
I realize a campaign message is supposed to be simple and focused -,like MAGA, but I wonder if this year might be different.
The President’s Rose Garden address yesterday was the opposite of simple and focused. It was literally a long list of horrible things Biden is promising to do if elected.
But it sounded like a winning message to me and left me feeling extremely pumped up.
So, before we dismiss this “list” approach as being too unfocused for an effective campaign message, maybe we should consider the fact that the Declaration of Independence was also essentially a list of grievances, yet one of the most powerful messages ever delivered.
As President was going through the list, he seemed genuinely shocked that Biden would adopt such absurd and unpopular campaign positions.
At several occasions while reading the list of Biden’s stupid campaign promises, the President sighed, and said “think of it, the Biden campaign is really saying these things. I’m not making this up”.
The exasperated look on his face reminded me of Harrison Ford in the famous Sword vs Gun scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark.
As if to say, “Seriously? The Democrats are going to run against me by promising to raise taxes, kill jobs and defund the police?”
I know, a political message should be positive, not negative.
But not always. Ronald Reagan beat Carter with a decidedly negative campaign; the misery index, asking - “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
“...right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—“
I realize a campaign message is supposed to be simple and focused -,like MAGA, but I wonder if this year might be different.
The President’s Rose Garden address yesterday was the opposite of simple and focused. It was literally a long list of horrible things Biden is promising to do if elected.
But it sounded like a winning message to me and left me feeling extremely pumped up.
So, before we dismiss this “list” approach as being too unfocused for an effective campaign message, maybe we should consider the fact that the Declaration of Independence was also essentially a list of grievances, yet one of the most powerful messages ever delivered.
As President was going through the list, he seemed genuinely shocked that Biden would adopt such absurd and unpopular campaign positions.
At several occasions while reading the list of Biden’s stupid campaign promises, the President sighed, and said “think of it, the Biden campaign is really saying these things. I’m not making this up”.
The exasperated look on his face reminded me of Harrison Ford in the famous Sword vs Gun scene in Raiders of the Lost Ark.
As if to say, “Seriously? The Democrats are going to run against me by promising to raise taxes, kill jobs and defund the police?”
I know, a political message should be positive, not negative.
But not always. Ronald Reagan beat Carter with a decidedly negative campaign; the misery index, asking - “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Excellent post.
I have a conservative Black friend in Denver and a month ago he told me that a surprising number of Blacks will vote for Trump and other “R”s and will simply keep it to themselves or share only with other like minded people.
Very good post.
That’s right. we can put nothing, and I mean nothing, past them.
Thank you. Most black people are afraid to tell anybody. They see how white Trump supporters are treated and know it will be worse for them. The ones on Twitter get death threats daily. One thing I see a lot of them post is that they had no idea how nice and not racist Trump supporters really are.
Thanks for the ping.
You have a very good understanding on what’s going on. I agree that they understand that the Left had better not win.
I think we’re going to see the “Silent Majority” of all stripes turn out like never before. Hopefully it will overwhelm the voter fraud.
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