Posted on 07/15/2020 11:59:30 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
I was in Rice Lake, WI not long ago and saw my first Biden signs.
Well there was that one thing when the Rally got trolled by the tic toc mob and the entrance blocked by antifa. I’m pretty sure that was Parscale was running the show when that happened. This would have easily been anticipated by anyone who was paying attention to the planning. Trump’s a savvy corporate leader, guaranteed he’s got a Root Cause on that event. He’s not going to allow it to happen again.
Yep, Hillary was up in the polls in 2016 yet Trump won, so polls are irrelevant to this election...OHH....except this firing.....OOOPs!
Change of tactics from rally led campaign to traditional ground based house to house campaign needs different executive experience.
Reagan was trailing both times big according to the polls.
I don’t. And I don’t think that’s what this is about.
In case you forgot, Trump went through essentially FIVE campaign managers in 2016: Lewandowski, Manafort, Bannon, Conway, Parscale, with Jared always an unnamed manager.
Manafort was brought in right before the convention for one job only: get Trump’s delegates to stay in line. He succeeded. He was out within five weeks.
To this day, none of the “insiders” (including myself) who wrote about the 2016 campaign are sure who was actually directing things. It appeared to be management by committee, with scheduling generally handled by Conway, strategy/message by Conway and Bannon, then Parscale finding interesting data points like how close they were in WI, PA, and MI. Jared handled the finances like a pro, doing the campaign on a shoestring.
Right now, the messaging is inconsistent. That’s for a reason: right now it’s not clear WHAT the message should be-—whether the main target here is the economy and reopening or whether it’s BLM/antifa riots, or whether it’s a combo of the two with the Deep State thrown in.
I personally think Trump is wise in NOT choosing yet and watching things shake out for a month. August is a good time to really roll out “the” message. I have sent the campaign a suggestion for a “Justice for ALL” motif that would address the
*Injustice of destroying businesses through continued lockdowns
*Injustice of ordinary citizens in big cities afraid for their lives because of rioters
*Injustice of no-knock warrants (a sop to Libertarians and some on the left, and yes, you have to have SOMETHING that appeals to other than conservatives)
*Injustice of a two-tiered system of elites getting away with everything (the coupsters).
I think properly refined and focused, this message could be a real killer. But before it comes out, Trump must make sure that the citizens of the big blue cities are ready for it. They are alcoholics who haven’t quite reached “Leaving Las Vegas” levels yet. They must BEG for the help. (Not the mayors, the people). Also, I think the lockdowns will wear REALLY thin especially on parents who are nuts to get their kids out of the house and back to gubment schools.
Trump will have to carefully pit the “people” against their mayors and governors, which I think can be done. It will be trickier in TX and AZ where he needs local help to have rallies, etc. But the entire message must be framed as “In so many ways we’ve become a lawless, uncivil society. Time to take back our lives.”
Now, I. DON’T. BELIEVE. POLLS. I’ve given up poll analysis, but Mike Sheppard on Twit still does it, and they are ALL D=5 to D=12 (yes, 12). Baris told me two weeks ago he had Trump up 2 in PA; Trafalgar has him up 1 in WI; I think he’s up here in AZ. ALL the pollsters told me they are having real serious trouble identifying Trump voters this time around, even when at the beginning of a personal call poll they say they are Trump voters but won’t say so on the poll out of fear. They both think the level is DOUBLE the 2016 level.
So just a reminder of why the polls likely are way, way off:
1) Voter registration in FL, PA, IA, NH, NC is Republican positive. In each state, PLUS NM AND NV, the Rs have shaved big % (and in some case big actual #s) off the D registration leads since 2016. In FL it’s over 100,000; in PA, 85,000; in NC, 82,000, in NM 10,000, in NV 13,000. These are significant. If Trump was losing, you would be seeing the opposite.
2) Student vote will be down HUGE in November as I showed in my uncoverdc.com article last week. My estimate is that nationally Ds are looking at a shortfall of 1 to 1.5m but that’s at a “reopen” rate of 70%. Many big universities, including the whole U Cal and Cal State systems (plus USC, Pomona, Harvard, Georgetown, Princeton) are going to be 100% remote. This could drive the student turnout from 45% in 2018 to as low as 30% or more in 2020. Don’t discount this. Several individual House districts will be deeply affected including NM2 (New Mexico State), whatever IA district Ames is in (IA State), Maricopa County, AZ (AZ 9) which has 100,000 students . . . you get the picture. Figure out in your state’s most competitive district what a shortfall of 30% students would do.
3) The black vote has shifted. Not overwhelmingly, but substantially. Sheppard has followed six polls for 3.5 years. They all come out the same: Trump is at 16-28% black approval with some outliers like Zogby even higher. Let’s assume only HALF those “approvals” vote for Trump. He will almost certainly come in at 11-12% (was at 8% in 2016) with ANOTHER 3-5% not voting. The stay at homes may be massive. Two consecutive polls (there you are with the polls if you want them) show Demented Perv Biteme at only 78% black support (Cankles lost at 88%).
When you combine 95% GOP support with -1m D Students (and that’s the DEMOKKKRAT shortfall... I already factored out College GOP), combined with a shortfall of 8-15% blacks off 2016 levels?
Sorry, but the numbers show a hugely different picture than the “polls.” They show Trump at 320-340 EVs and probably a popular vote victory. They also show a lot of House races tight.
If your numbers are correct and Trump wins in November, expect riots in the streets — again.
Brad, you’re not a wartime consigliere...
Such are the times in which we live...
I’m in Twitter, Parler, and Facebook. What I’m consistently hearing is that there are more “shy” Trump voters this year than four years ago. A lot are getting polled. They are all telling the pollsters that they are voting Biden, but they aren’t, and they are staunch Trump supporters. A lot, like us, don’t answer the phone. I’m in the WalkAway group on Facebook. I’m what they call a “WalkWith”. People are leaving the Democrat party in droves. I have followed and been followed by a lot of former black Democrats that have left the plantation are are voting Trump. I didn’t see that in 2016.
Our main focus should be to make SURE we physically go to the polls (if able) because Democrats will be cheating more than they ever have. We have to overwhelm the cheating level. The President really needs to campaign in CA and NY to siphon off some of the popular vote. Too much voter fraud there that runs up the PV numbers for Democrats.
About college students, based on overhearing some college students discussing shutdowns and affect on internship..they are not happy campers.
I agree Larry. I think a lot of Trump voters will not identify themselves out of fear. On the local Nextdoor site when I stand up from a Conservative standpoint to the liberals I get private messages as to how “brave” I am. To me I am just making a stand against all the craziness going on in this country. I even put up my Trump sign early this year to take a stand in face of all that is going on.
__________________
Bingo. Well said!
___________
Yep.
Ames is in IA-4, which is safe now that Steve King lost the primary.
But Iowa City (U of Iowa) is in IA-2.
post #46
There’s too much detail lost in national polls. Any RAT candidate will roll up huge numbers in California, for example, but 60% doesn’t win any more EVs. Same for NY and IL.
It’s a good move!
Boo-ya. We can get that seat from Loebsack (Isn’t he retiring anyway?)
BTW, what other university heavy districts are on your radar for a flip?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.