Posted on 03/18/2021 11:43:29 AM PDT by BeauBo
That study only measured immunity for 90 days. I would have expected all covid cases to offer at least 90 days of immunity, but in this study it did not. At 90 days .03% of the previously infected tested positive again.
Only 3% of people who had not previously had covid tested positive.
And the numbers from the nursing home study which was an entirely different study were particularly disappointing. Out of 12 people who had covid in July, 5 of them had it again in October and in each case they had a worse case.
We’ll have to agree to disagree on what “powerful immunity” is...:-)
When would that occur? 1-3 years maybe.
If the vaccine targets multiple epitopes, it would generate multiple antibodies and it would take more mutations for the virus to evade them all. maybe 10 years there. Maybe forever.
The risk is that as the virus mutates into new variants, and neutralizing antibody levels decrease, a point may be reached where the antibodies enhance the viruses pathogenicity i.e. Antibody Dependent Enhancement.
We see this with Dengue fever virus. There are 4 variants of DFV. The first time you get it, it's typically mild. If you get it again, it's likely that you will get a different subtype of the virus i.e. a different "variant".When this happens, you are very likely to get the more lethal form of Dengue fever. It has recently been determined that there is also a direct relationship between decreasing antibody levels and this Antibody Enhancement. High levels of Neutralizing antibodies are found to be protective; whereas, decreasing levels of neutralizing antibodies are associated with the more lethal form of Dengue fever in subsequent infections.
Because of this, I think it's likely that we'll end up needing a booster shot to keep neutralizing antibody levels high as the virus mutates into new variants but, once again, it kind of depends on how specific this vaccine is to the original strain i.e. one epitope or multiple epitopes.
It sounds like antibody enhancement as seen with Dengue Fever Virus. This is a legit risk IMO.
New Danish study just out.
“The vast majority of people who recover from Covid-19 remain shielded from the virus for at least six months, researchers reported on Wednesday in a large study from Denmark.”
“People over 65 are more likely to experience a second bout with the virus, according to a large study of medical records.”
“Prior infection with the coronavirus reduced the chances of a second bout by about 80 percent in people under 65, but only by about half in those older than 65.”
Thank you. I’ll look at the Israeli studies.
I’d caution against considering that report of a handful of reinfections from a nursing home as a study - it is an anecdote. There were no controls, no analysis to weed out confounding factors (most nursing home residents, almost by definition, are at death’s door, with multiple co-morbidities), and far from a statistically significant sample size.
In general, the older people get, the less effective their immune systems are. That is a hallmark of aging, across all infectious diseases. No surprise.
You mention that at 90 days, .03% of previously infected tested positive again, but “only” 3% of those who had not previously had COVID did.
99% reduction is generally seen as quite strong protection.
Thanks for your thoughts.
I don’t know how many epitopes are targeted by the vaccines. I have often seen the singular “spike protein” used (but “journalists”).
I did see a report that Walter Reed was researching a general purpose coronavirus vaccine, with multiple targets, to cover broad ranges of sub-types or mutations. That was just developmental though.
Maybe mixing and matching the vaccines might be helpful, if they target different epitopes.
We still have relatives/friends, across America,
who still haven’t gotten their first shot.
Or if they got their first shot, they have not been able to get their second shot or even an appt..
Some have been told, that they will get notified before their 42 day wait period is over. Just don’t call us.
Illegals are getting shots via pop up shot clinics in the same areas where our family/friends can’t get their first shot and or their second shot.
“I think it’s likely that we’ll end up needing a booster shot to keep neutralizing antibody levels high as the virus mutates into new variants but, once again, it kind of depends on how specific this vaccine is to the original strain i.e. one epitope or multiple epitopes.
No one knows how long our shots will last. Each of us have an incredible # of variables that will impact that reality.
We an be sure that some testing companies are working on quick tests which will help determine, when we might need another booster shot. Those tests could used at home or at shot clinics to determine if we need a booster and how much.
The data are in. These vaccines are in the same safety ballpark as others.
_____________________________________________________________
Check back on this post in 5 years.
“Illegals are getting shots via pop up shot clinics in the same areas where our family/friends can’t get their first shot and or their second shot.”
Maybe try scheduling appointments at those sites, or in the majority minority areas...
“Maybe try scheduling appointments at those sites, or in the majority minority areas...”
A 50 something male relative did that a couple of weeks ago. He got an appt. in a different county at a pharmacy there,
He drove 50 some odd miles each way, passing shot clinics and pharmacies which said “No shots for you.!”
He and his wife watched drug deals going down in the pharmacy parking lot.
There was one POC of color in the group getting a shot. The rest were without Color and not living in the county where they got their injection.
Haven’t seen anything out of Israel so far, but I’m sure we will over the coming months.
The original clinical trial participants are still tracked. The first doses of COVID-19 vaccines were given over a year ago (March 16, 2020). To date, I’ve seen no published research to indicate that they’re any worse off today - in terms of COVID-19 risk - than they were after inoculation. Unless and until there’s published, verified data to the contrary, file it under fear-inspiring noise.
“This NCBI article discusses the matter in much greater detail.”
It seems to me that the article does an analysis of what particular set of COVID features (epitopes) would produce the most thorough immune response - B Cell response, as well as CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell response. They used a bioinformatics (computational analysis) approach, to try to identify which would work best. Kind of an engineering analysis.
“11 selected CD4+ T-cell epitopes were shown to cover 99.36% of global population alleles whereas the 13 CD8+ T-cell epitopes exhibited 91.21% global population coverage” ...”A total of seven linear B-cell epitopes were predicted after filtering based on their antigenicity, surface accessibility, and confirmation using ABCPred” ...”Finally, we have indicated seven multi-epitope sequences where five of the sequences we believe could be integral in the development of an effective peptide-based vaccine that is highly immunogenic and has a wide global population coverage.”
Apparently, this analysis was conducted well after Moderna and Pfizer were already in testing. Those companies may have done their own similar analysis in designing their vaccines, but I did not catch any indication of that in scanning the article, or of how many epitopes those actual vaccines used. I think they used a particular spike protein, how ever many epitopes that might represent.
The article did say that some multi-epitope vaccines had been created (but they may have just been lab experiments, I don’t know - footnotes 44 and 73).
The authors indicated that it might (implied should) be possible to select a set of epitopes to cover a very wide set of viral variations - beyond just COVID-19, possibly including SARS, MERS, or even basically all coronaviruses.
Since this article was published (Oct 2020), I have heard reports that the Army’s/DOD’s Walter Reed medical Center was working to develop such a broadly-based coronavirus vaccine. May or may not be related.
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