Based on previous experience with SARS2003 and MERS2012, we should expect immunity to last between 1 and 3 years. That holds for either someone recovering from infection or someone receiving a vaccine. That doesn't mean we'll necessarily need to continue vaccinating. Once smallpox was stamped out of existence, there was no need to continue vaccinating for it. Routine smallpox vaccination ended decades ago. That may happen with this as well.
“Based on previous experience with SARS2003 and MERS2012, we should expect immunity to last between 1 and 3 years.”
Did you see the (unreviewed, unpublished) Scottish study that Cathi posted at #27?
It seems to indicate a rapid fading of protection - declining in weeks 5 and 6 (as measured by likelihood of being hospitalized with COVID). They looked at Pfizer and AZ.
It does not seem to jibe with other indicators, but I find it troublingly short.
I wonder if anything has come out of Israel, for the weeks after full vaccination?