Posted on 04/13/2021 2:08:22 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
Believe it or not hurricane season starts in less than 50 days in the Atlantic. So what’s in store in the tropics here in 2021? Will it be a repeat of 2020? Will it be quieter?
Enter Colorado State University (CSU) and their 2021 hurricane season outlook -- one that may not be what you want to hear.
Researchers at CSU are once again predicting an above average hurricane season this year. The main driver behind that prediction is the likely absence of El Niño, according to the release. Other factors include near-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and much warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
So why does the presence of El Niño -- or lack thereof -- matter for hurricanes in the Atlantic?
“El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form,” according to CSU’s Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
The lack of El Niño is what led CSU researchers to forecast 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (category 3+). Those numbers are above the climatological average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Yep!
“They say this EVERY SINGLE YEAR.”
You beat me to it.
And they never show the after-the-prediction scorecards. Of course, even if they did, they would manipulate the results through careful word play.
Global warming for sure.
Somewhere in an office, Jim Cantore is smiling as he hears this.
What was with last year’s voyage into the Greek alphabet?
Really genuine or hyped hopes?
Bookmarked for Schadenfreude come November.
Linked text: After exhausting the OED, we started numbering them. When overlapping hurricanes formed at all points on the Earth's surface, and our scheme was foiled by Cantor diagonalization, we just decided to name them all "Steve". Your local forecast tomorrow is "Steve". Good luck.
Actually, you don’t have to look hard to find scorecards.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#list_2020s
When average is Nothing ,LOL
Dang..I was coming into this thread to write this exact comment.👏💯
Always above average.
It’s like following the science. But with math.
The only thing I worry about is that Al Gore will be in Florida when I travel to the beach. Gore Effect: unseasonably cold temperatures that follow Al Gore wherever he speaks
Don’t forget “Warmest Winter EVER©” every year as well.
They started naming storms that in the past weren't considered big enough to name. Just another way to manipulate data to feed climate change hysteria.
Used to be, they only named actual hurricanes, not tropical depressions (ie cloudy days). Also for the record, over the long run since start of the 20th century when we began watching, hurricane activity has declined
Since the modern satellite era they’ve been able to track storms out at sea—that never hit land before dissipating—as major storms. So that’s one big jump in number of storms.
I’m also convinced they’re playing with the data—pouncing on wind speeds anomalies to push tropical depressions to tropical storms and storms to hurricanes. It could very well be that some minor storms cross up into a higher category for an hour or so and then fade back down, but to the climate change people—bam! Muh hurricane!
And the fear porn is so great for ratings the media laps this up like starving wolves.
More agressive naming could be seen by an increase in the number of tropical storms vs hurricanes and a decrease in average duration (it hit TS speeds for one afternoon rather than being organized long enough to get a hurricane hunter plane into it).
Didn’t they also say this winter was colder than usual because of global warming? /S/
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