Posted on 03/21/2022 10:02:27 AM PDT by Wuli
A credible deterrent is designed to alter a potential aggressor’s calculations of risk and reward. Vladimir Putin determined that the potential cost of invading Ukraine was relatively low, and on Feb. 24 he attacked. It will be the job of historians to try to understand why deterrence failed.
Deterrence involves two factors: capability and will. Capability means having the military strength to deliver intolerable damage to an adversary. Will is the determination to use that strength and deliver that damage.
.....snip..... By signaling that the U.S. had no intention of using its capabilities, the Biden administration seriously weakened their deterrent value.
The White House has consistently broadcast what it won’t do, removing a crucial component of deterrence: the ability to amplify risk through ambiguity. Mr. Putin now knows exactly how much to escalate the conflict because U.S. officials have told him exactly what the maximum U.S. response will be.
.....snip.......
Could this conflict have been averted with a more convincing demonstration of American resolve? We will never know for sure. Deterrence is an art, not a science. But the U.S. almost certainly faces a challenge if it wants to keep the peace in the future. Restoring the perception of American will to deter conflict may, ironically, require an even more forceful manifestation of that will on the battlefield. In a world of diminished deterrence, the desire for peace could make conflict more certain.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
WSJ farms out its opinion page to the Counsel of Foreign Relations.
“Do not make a moral equivalence between the US and Russia. Despite what some are saying, we really are better than them and we need to quit pretending otherwise.”
Actually, what we need IS moral equivalence. Russia is no longer the communist USSR and hasn’t been for 30 years. And similarly, we are not the moral nation of Reagan from 30 years ago.
They are rebuilding churches destroyed by the Bolsheviks, and banning homo abuse of kids and out of their culture.
We force churches to close with stormtroopers, push faggotry on children, and fete it throughout our culture. Lies are the currency of the realm in DC.
Cultural relevance is exactly what we need. Not more fake history lessons. Too many wagging fingers discussing today tell us all about the USSR. And they also tell us how we are spreading freedom.
Judging from the last 2 decades, we have lost our moral compass, and they have found theirs. As enraging as it is to us here at home... it’s a fact.
That’s the bottom line. There was no deterrent presented, only vague empty blustering. Same now with China. Blinken says do as we say or “there will be consequences.” Xi smirks.
Yeah all this stuff just seems like commonsense to me, I have a hard time understanding certain freepers on here cheerleading our involvement in this. Fighting a proxy war (which could easily pull us in) against Russia is about the last thing Trump would have done, whatever happened to our America First agenda? And this totally corrupt and incompetent administration is about the last one I would trust leading us into anything, particularly after witnessing our embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan. The whole thing makes zero sense to me, and I’m afraid it’s all going to end in a calamity unless we somehow put a stop to it. And that prospect doesn’t look good considering most Republicans in Congress seem to be all for it.
Love Trump, but on issues regarding Ukraine and Russia, I regard him essentially the way a cop should heed the statements of a hostage with a gun to their head.
Trump cannot freely say whatever he pleases or he will be a “Russian asset” again. He cannot call out Uke Nazis and corruption either. Last time he did that he was instantly impeached.
Also he is in a political campaign.
That’s just how it is.
And the entire GOP is in lockstep for Ukraine. If Trump says anything different, it will hurt his efforts. That’s just a fact on the ground.
“Did the United States carpet bomb Havana over Soviet missiles?”
The missiles were withdrawn from Cuba after JFK agreed to remove our missiles from Turkey, although this part wasn’t disclosed at the time. So we compromised with the Soviets back then, but apparently are unwilling to do the same today under Biden. Not comparable at all.
Plus the same cretins (and US intel) expected Ukraine to fold in a few days. Now they're like deer in the headlights: clueless.
LOL Ukraine is just a tad more important than Rwanda. And the notion of giving up our forward defense so we can fight on our own territory is lunacy.
We send Special Forces into Nicuragua and overthrew the government, TWICE!
We invaded Grenada.
We almost risked a nuclear war with the Cuban missile crisis.
We most certainly did take “military action” to prevent the Soviets from playing in our backyard.
The Russians aren’t carpet bombing shit. There is a lot of posturing, information operations, etc. But when it comes to the shooting war, “it’s a highly limited conflict” not unlike our Iraq campaign. We didn’t want to level Iraq and those opposed to the war tried to pretend that was what were were doing, showing images of burnt out buildings, rubble, etc. We had the firepower to literally turn Baghdad into the likeness of Hamburg Germany 1945, in one night.
They have heavy/strategic bombers and big bombs just like us. They have heavy rocket artillery, just like ours. They have big tube artillery, in fact bigger than ours. They have the firepower, and that is beyond any doubt, to level Kiev in a matter of hours or even just minutes, they are in range, and control the air. If the Russians wanted to, Kiev would look like this: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/159B0/production/_102669488_colourstreetcut_alamy.jpg
Don’t believe what you read. This is a limited war where the Russians do not want to turn Ukraine into a heap of rubble. Ukraine is one of their major trading partners as well.
But the longer this rages on, the more damage is done.
The US is an economic empire. We do hold posessions and have territories. But more important than that, we are a hegemon through the use of the US dollar as the worlds trading/reserve currency, NATO, the UN, and our own economic might.
“And the notion of giving up our forward defense so we can fight on our own territory is lunacy.”
Our forward defense is Britain, France Norway and Spain.
Anything further east is Europe’s problem. They should solve it. They have the money and the tech.
Good points. We also stationed ballistic missiles in Turkey up to the Cuban Missile Crisis just south of the Soviet Union. They were part of the motivation behind Krushev’s decision to place them in Cuba.
“Ukraine is just a tad more important than Rwanda”
Not to US interests.
Thank you
I pretty much agree that this war would not have happened under trump’s watch.
Then my answer would be there is no/there never was any deterrence and the question is baseless. ChoMoeJoe was doing business with them.
We thought Europe was important to US interests either after WWI. It bit us in the behind.
I looked up the Budapest Memorandum. And the Minsk Accord. I read them both. They are short and easy to read in their entirety. Neither one said anything whatsoever about NATO expansion or the stationing of NATO troops. Perhaps you have a different secret version of the documents which differ from the official UN versions. Or perhaps you don’t know what you’re talking about.
All the “climate change” babble convinced Putin that Western leaders were incredibly stupid.
I would even say that is not directly relevant to the question of "What is the US national security interest to becoming more overtly involved in Ukraine?"
Either we have that national security interest or we don't. For example, chemical weapons were used by Syria. What was the extent of our overt military involvement there?
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