Primary Polling Is All over the Map

electoral-vote.com blog ^ | March 2, 2023 | Andrew Tannenbaum

[Eagle Forgotten]

Here are the major polls taken since November of a Donald Trump vs. Ron DeSantis primary race. The ones with an asterisk show Trump's share of the Trump + DeSantis vote in a multiway poll.

[Chart in source doesn't reproduce. The takeaway: At one extreme is an Emerson poll that has Trump at 55%, at the other extreme is an Ipsos poll that has him at 25%, and the other 16 are pretty evenly distributed among those two endpoints.]

So we know in a Trump vs. DeSantis primary, Trump will get somewhere between 25% and 55% of the vote. Good to know.

[Eagle Forgotten]

FR has had posts about Trump-versus-DeSantis polls. My take on it is that no one should get very excited or dismayed about one poll, because, as this piece notes, the results, even from capable pollsters, are wildly inconsistent. (The link is to an anti-Trump site but they do try to give objective analysis of polls.)

The author thinks the key is that “Pollsters have largely given up on random-digit-dialing telephone polls.” That time-honored method doesn’t work any more for various reasons. Instead, different pollsters have different ways of trying to get a random sample, and these differences account for the huge discrepancies in results. The author does some wonky analysis of polling methods, and links to a New York Times piece that’s even wonkier.

Another point to remember is that it’s early. The author points out that DeSantis is a tougher opponent than any Trump faced in 2016, but that DeSantis has never been tested on the national stage. If, as many expect, those two are the principal contenders in the campaign, including a series of debates, there’s really no telling what will happen.

[hattend]

It’s F’n 2 years to elections. Let us breathe for the summer.

[ifinnegan]

About 1 year to primaries.

[Opinionated Blowhard]

Polls now are meaningless. If they had any meaning, Rudy Giuliani would have been the 2008 nominee, Rick Perry would have been the 2012 nominee and Scott Walker would have been the 2016 nominee.

[GoodBadUgly]

Also, DeSantis has not undergone the scrutiny that Trump has had to endure and Trump comes up clean every time

Truly there is no cleaner politician in the USA.

This is a great counter to the Biden Crime Family and should play well on the stump

[brownsfan]

Here’s all you need to know:

The public is stupid and easily led. People want to feel they are part of the in group, (meaning media, celebrities, online groups).

Without compelling motivation, the default will be for these people to vote Democrat. The GOP is horrid at educating and providing motivation.

[HandBasketHell]

Voting no longer matters as long as states allow cheat-by-mail-in ballots, drop-boxes, and Dominion machines.

[Vaduz]

If the democrats plan another 2020 type election it’ll like seeing a page with all the dots as the pour ink on it.

Another democrat so called win.

[SPDSHDW]

Poll don’t matter.

They haven’t been remotely accurate since 2012.

[Eagle Forgotten]

It’s F’n 2 years to elections. Let us breathe for the summer.

You give good advice. I wish I had the willpower to follow it. But I keep obsessively reading the stories about the latest polls, who might run, would Haley make a good running mate for Trump or DeSantis, can the Republicans take the Senate, and on and on and on.

I need a 12-step program.