Posted on 12/09/2023 10:41:52 AM PST by lasereye
The Iowa caucuses are less than six weeks away, and only eleven months remain until Election Day 2024. So maybe it is a good time to see what voters think before the nomination process begins.
In the current Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump is up by +2.
--snip--
Let’s look at three items from the polls likely to impact the 2024 election: Joe Biden’s job approval numbers, candidate favorability, and what voters believe are the country’s most serious issues.
--snip--
An analysis of these numbers is pretty straightforward. My first impression is how consistent they are.
Biden’s job disapproval hovers around 55%. Clearly, voters do not believe he is doing a good job as president.
The real issue for Biden is the strongly disapproving numbers averaging nearly 44%. These folks are the ones with the torches and pitchforks. Trump would need the support of only an additional seven or eight percent of the mildly disaffected to get elected.
Favorability ratings are generally underwater for both candidates. The Harris poll was the only one to give either a positive number, which was Trump at +7. Averaging the numbers gives Trump a -8.6 favorability and Biden a -15. Since neither candidate is close to 50%, we will likely choose the person voters see as the lesser of two evils.
The issues voters see as most important are not trending in Biden’s direction. The economy, inflation, immigration, and protecting democracy favor Trump. Climate change did not get high numbers in most polls. Abortion, which was a significant issue in the 2022 midterm elections, is now mostly in the low single digits.
Can the political landscape change before Election Day? Of course. But for now, the Real Clear Politics average of Trump +2 seems justified.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
If they can pull off those two things then Biden can win very ugly. History shows they have good chance to pull it off. Trump's team needs to have a very well defined strategy to counter the Biden themes. Holding a bunch of rallies is not it.
In 2020 Biden was able to score some points on Covid, and he kept repeating the "white supremacists are fine people" lie. They allowed Biden to portray himself as a moderate. The Trump team did not have an effective counter to Biden's lies. Trump's 2020 team and Trump himself were bad at strategery. It has never been clear to me that they even had a strategy. Unless holding lots of rallies constitutes a strategy (it doesn't).
Everyone knows it won’t be Biden
if the polls tighten it will be, but if they stay where they are now next fall... yeah... Biden will suddenly have a medical issue and Democrats will put someone else in that wasn’t even running in the primary.
The only thing which can save Biden is Trump.
There are so many people which take the media for truth and hate Trump.
Anybody else, including Ham Sandwich will handily defeat Biden.
But, among Republicans, Trump is very popular so he will get the nomination.
Last election, in Arizona, Trump endorsed four candidates. None of them really that known. Because of Trump endorsement, they all got the nomination and ALL lost to democrats in general election.
Republicans who did not get Trump’s endorsement all won!
I think we will have pres. Biden for a long while, followed by pres. Harris.
Unfortunatelly.
Due to demographics, I seriously doubt we’ll ever see another Republican president no matter who it is.
Among Biden’s many flaws, stubbornness rank high. I’m convinced they’re squeezing Hunter because Joe is refusing to step aside.
It would be awesome to round up the ones that are negative about Pres Trump and televise a live townhall.
Q1: why do you hate/dislike Pres Trump?
Q2: which one of his policies had a negative effect on your life? Again. YOUR life Not your citrus signaling or emotions projected on anyone else.
It would awesome to watch all those smart people he dumfounded and not say anything more than….he’s a big meanie.
It has never been clear to me that they even had a strategy. Unless holding lots of rallies constitutes a strategy (it doesn’t).
Ok, so pretend you were in the inner circle…..What should they have done?
I should have added abortion as another big Biden issue. I think Trump is giving some thought to how to handle that. It should just be “the abortion issue is with the states where it belongs”. Don’t run from SCOTUS overturning of Roe v Wade.
Biden is the favorite to win. Unmarried women will vote for Biden.
Umm, developed a strategy to counter Biden's lies.
“ Because of Trump endorsement, they all got the nomination and ALL lost to democrats in general election.”
In Arizona?!
They lost to Democrats?
Are you kidding?
I’m still not convinced it will be Biden
> I seriously doubt we’ll ever see another Republican president <
You well could be right. Trump’s 2016 victory was a fluke. The Democrats were sure Hillary would win. So they got lazy. And cheating was keep to a minimum.
Quick story: It’s the summer of 2016. A liberal acquaintance of mine wanted to put some Hillary signs on his front yard. So he contacted his local Democrat party. Signs are $5 apiece, he was told. He passed.
Now it’s 2020. The Biden signs were free. No charge. He picked up two signs.
So the Democrats have learned their lesson. Plus we have mail-in voting and the magical Dominion voting machines. There is also talk of voting via the Internet.
Plus there’s the demographics thing, as you mentioned.
Hunter just got indicted. Possibly more to come.
Daddy pardons him and then something happens. Medically or just the bad publicity of it, whatever, and he withdraws. Or, the actual stress legitimately takes him out.
Either way, he won’t be there next year.
But I do think that people are giving Newsom entirely too much credit for stuff he hasn’t done. California is an absolute disaster. The media can’t block campaign ads. And he has provided a warehouse full of information from which to pull for ads showing that. So, if he’s their best bet, they’re in some serious trouble.
IE….the country is against the immigration mess, he wants to give kids who live in Mexico in-state tuition.
He and the legislature are about to shut down one of the largest, if not the largest, shipping port in the country and destroy the trucking industry in that state. How many jobs are going to be lost.
They did, but who controls the press and what is seen?
When the MSM starts reporting on Biden’s weak numbers then you know it’s serious. The Democrats are really starting to fear that they won’t be able to steal it this time, but they’re in a difficult position because time is running out for replacing him, at least as far as primaries go.
I heard a caller on Jeff Kuhner’s radio show yesterday, suggest that the Democrats might wait until the convention to replace him. That would pave the way for a brokered convention in which his replacement could be chosen behind closed doors. That makes a certain amount of sense, but who really knows? Either way, the Dem’s are in a difficult position. It’s a nice thing to watch.
Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Comments like yours are funny.
Yup, all those candidates lost because of Pres Trump. Even Steven. All fair.
Let’s ignore all that continues to come out about those elections.
And given the human tsunami that is overtaking Arizona because of Biden and Hobbs, I’m sure everyone in Arizona is looking forward to voting for Biden.
Yes, Arizona is still a Republican state.
Kind of close, but Republican.
More registered Republicans than Democrats.
We have Republican state Senate, state House and majority of congressmen. Also most state elected positions are Republicans.
All statewide Democrats we have, are there because Trump endorsement!
At least in AZ Trump endorsement is a kiss of death!
That’s some strategy.
No details?
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