Posted on 11/03/2001 2:38:50 PM PST by dobbyman
And another thing conspiracy fans. Even if you think FDR was trying to provoke a Japanese attack, why the hell would he want it to succede? Adm. Kimmel smashing a surprise Japanese attack 500 miles north of Pearl Harbor would have gotten us into the war just as surely.
The "liberal" bent of that era infected our thinking until..well it's till there!
Let's see. He uses Jim Marrs(!) as a source, for a claim that there is a transcript that exists, but he didn't see it or read it and couldn't confirm it, but he accepts the claim at face value.
He cites a reported Russian prediction that the dollar will collapse and their use of a gold coin as meaningful, even though the dollar didn't collapse and there are perfectly good reasons why the Russians would want to do such a thing.
A "scientist" tries to have a certain objectivity and wants to have evidence for his claims. Whatever his job may be, a "scientist" did not write this post.
" ...overt act of war, so much the better."
From Marshall:
" ... if hostilities cannot comma repeat cannot be avoided the United States desires that Japan commit the first overt act stop this policy should not comma repeat not comma be construed as restricting you to a course of action that might jeopardize your defense top ...
So, in other words, Kimmel/Short ... absorb the "first blow."
So much for the Pacific sortie to "surprise" the Japanese Fleet ...
Strained eyeballs, no sign of collapse
Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of U.S. Dollar vs a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue For more information, see: Federal Reserve Bulletin, October 1998, pp811-18.
Source: G.5 Release -- Federal Reserve Board of Governors
DATE TWEXMMTH |
1973.01 108.354 |
1973.02 103.812 |
1973.03 100.000 |
1973.04 100.820 |
1973.05 100.086 |
1973.06 98.309 |
1973.07 96.335 |
1973.08 97.763 |
1973.09 97.956 |
| 1973.10 97.561 |
… |
… |
2000.03 95.610 |
2000.04 96.234 |
2000.05 99.213 |
2000.06 96.662 |
2000.07 97.589 |
2000.08 99.066 |
2000.09 100.647 |
2000.10 102.239 |
2000.11 103.081 |
2000.12 101.263 |
2001.01 100.237 |
2001.02 101.436 |
2001.03 103.976 |
2001.04 105.089 |
2001.05 105.028 |
2001.06 105.914 |
2001.07 106.071 |
2001.08 103.767 |
2001.09 103.324 |
2001.10 104.275 |
I suggest you read "Day of Deceit" by Robert Stinnett. It's an eye-opener. The U.S. had intercepted and decoded both military and diplomatic intercepts that provided the precise location and date of the attack. None of these intercepts were provided to Admiral Husband Kimmel and Lt. Gen. Walter Short in Hawaii.
Roosevelt bated the Japanese into the attack and then withheld vital intelligence information. He knew an attack against America by Japan, Germany's ally, would rally popular support for America's entrance into the war against Germany. In an effort to preserve FDR's sainted image, the mainstream media has gone out of its way to bury this story.
-Un-PC
Check out the following web location:
http://www.independent.org/tii/news/001207Stinnett.html
A Cryptologic Veteran's Analysis of "Day of Deceit" By Philip H. Jacobsen
The author, Robert B. Stinnett, made a thorough search of National Archives files other repositories and contacted numerous personnel to justify his long held belief that President Franklin D. Roosevelt not only actively fomented war with Japan as a pretext to aid Britain in its fight with Hitler but that he purposely made Pearl Harbor an attractive target for the Japanese Navy. Then (as the theory goes) after learning of the of the Japanese plan to attack Pearl Harbor, Roosevelt (through conspiracies continuing today) not only kept Admiral Kimmel and General Short from obtaining information on Japanese intentions to attack Pearl Harbor but ordered or had ordered actions that prevented those commanders from discovering the Kido Butai and adequately defending Pearl Harbor from the expected attack by the Japanese.
"Day of Deceit" argues that Roosevelt was convinced the loss at Pearl Harbor must be of sufficient magnitude to overcome the isolationist views of the general public so that he could safely declare war on both Japan and Germany. Furthermore, after the attack on Pearl Harbor, Roosevelt through his co-conspirators (who apparently include General Marshall, Admirals Stark, Ingersoll, Anderson, Captain Turner and Commander McCollum and by implication Admiral Noyes, Captain Redman, Commander Rochefort and many others), attempted to cover up his and his co-conspirators' dastardly deeds. However, through Stinnett's foresight, expertise and diligence, he was able to see through this monstrous conspiracy and its cover-up to reveal its details to us some 58 years later when all previous efforts by revisionist conspiracy theorists have failed and all the participants are dead and cannot defend themselves. Nevertheless, this book will sell well among rabid Roosevelt haters, many Kimmel and Short supporters, and dedicated conspiracy theorists.
In an effort to support his conspiracy theory, Stinnett came up with many new documents not generally known to be available. However, these documents do not add anything new to the question of who knew what and when. In his zeal, he misinterprets not only some of these "new" documents but comes up with radically new meanings for the plain words and characterizations of well accepted documentation already available in this Pearl Harbor arena. One of the centerpieces of his argument is an October 1940 memorandum by then Lieutenant Commander McCollum of ONI in response to the September 1940 signing of the Tripartite Pact by Germany, Italy and Japan and not as any blueprint for initiating war with Germany and Japan. McCollum recognized the danger to the western powers if Japan was able to connect up with Germany and Italy through Asia and suggested eight actions designed to contain Japan generally and to keep her from making such connection with its other Axis partners. Unfortunately, the book seizes on an off hand comment that is not one of the main points of the memo as the springboard for its conspiracy theory. That comment was if the eight proposed actions designed to contain Japan should by chance cause Japan to commit an overt act of war, so much the better. No proof of any official implementation of this mid-level memo is provided. Furthermore, Stinnett improperly ascribes McCollum's office as "an element of Station US (by which he means OP-20-G), a secret American cryptographic center located at the main naval headquarters" in an effort to tie McCollum closer to OP-20-G than he actually was before WWII. A non-cryptologic fallacy of the book is the fact that Roosevelt had no assurance that Germany would declare war on the U.S. if the Japanese did attack Pearl Harbor thus negating any reasonable conspiratorial design to get the U.S. into war with Germany by forcing Japan to attack the U.S.
It is well established that the SRN series of Japanese naval messages in the National Archives were decrypted in 1945-46 and translated in 1946-47, but Stinnett incorrectly suggests they may only have been transcribed at those times and that these decrypts (or at least some of them) were available not only in radio intelligence centers in Washington, but Stations Hypo (Rochefort) in Hawaii and Cast on Corregidor. Among other things, the book misinterprets an article by Captain Pelletier in the "Cryptolog." Even though Pelletier is now dead, he also wrote in the NCVA History Book that all such JN-25B raw messages were two months old by the time he saw them in Washington and that no Kido Butai transmissions while enroute from the Kuriles to Hawaii were ever found before or after 7 December 1941. Further, the book fails to inform its readers that Rochefort and his Hypo personnel were only assigned to and only worked on the unproductive Flag Officer's Code and not the main Japanese Fleet Code JN-25B as well as the fact that they were only given the go ahead to work on JN-25B a few days or so after the Pearl Harbor attack. As mentioned before, Stinnett also omits the well known information that JN-25B intercepts from Corregidor, Guam and Station H were only forwarded to Washington by mail and took up to two months to arrive mostly by ship and rail. Thus, even Washington's alleged 10 percent capability on JN-25B decrypts had not even begun to be applied to the November and December 1941 intercepts enroute there while Stinnett maintains they were available to all commanders except of course Kimmel and Short due to FDR's co-conspirators.
The book implies more improprieties by the fact that Hypo had no assigned Japanese diplomatic intercept or decrypt authority until RCA President Sarnoff made available RCA cables from Honolulu beginning in early December 1941. Part of Stinnett's overall conspiracy theory includes the allegation that Hypo only decrypted the administrative messages of these low level Japanese diplomatic messages provided by RCA before Pearl Harbor and did not decrypt the "bomb plot" messages until after Pearl Harbor.
Although Stinnett obtained definite information from Captain Whitlock that no significant JN-25B decrypts were made by Station Cast on Corregidor during the period in question, he disputes this fact and misinterprets other documents and sources as proof that Whitlock is wrong. Some navy cryptologic veterans involved in this book have complained Stinnett gained their confidence by agreeing to tell their stories but ignored their version of events in favor of the monstrous conspiracy theory finalized in the book. Admiral Layton terminated his interview with the author, most likely when he learned where the book was going. It should be noted that it took OP-20-G some 14 months to read the much simpler JN-25A system that was used from 1 June 1939 to 1 December 1940. The book misleads its readers by not revealing there were two distinct codes, the earlier JN-25A and its much more complicated successor JN-25B used during the period in question and refers to them collectively as "Code Book D" or "5-Num code." Thus, the final successes of JN-25A are improperly imputed to JN-25B which was not read to any significant extent until March 1942 when the first published decrypt is found. The ever-increasing requirements to provide Japanese diplomatic decrypts and translations during 1941 took most of the time of navy cryptographers so that few people at both Washington and Station Cast were assigned to work on the new version of the Fleet Code, JN-25B. In addition, JN-25B used about eight additive cipher books up through 4 December 1941 further delaying the effort to read any significant amount of this new and far more complicated code and cipher combination.
Stinnett and his sources are apparently not aware that Japanese naval shore broadcast stations transmitted simultaneously on a number of frequencies covering their communications area and it was up to the ships in their communications zone (or U.S. intercept operators) to choose the best frequency on which to copy such broadcast. Thus, the deduction that because an intercept operator copied one message in the 12 MHz. range part of one day and 16 MHz. on part of a different later day means the ship or force has moved further away from the shore station is patently incorrect. These Tokyo broadcast transmitters were active on several of their assigned frequencies simultaneously and the 16 MHz. frequency had long been used by the Tokyo broadcast as a daytime frequency.
Stinnett often claims carriers or fleet units must have transmitted on high frequencies when they are only seen in the headings of messages on fleet broadcasts. He does not tell his readers that many ships are tied up at docks and have landline or cable communications available to them so they do not have to use radio and the original transmissions of such messages will never be heard by foreign intercept operators. In this regard, he maintains that Admiral Yamamoto's messages sent (while tied up at a Kure dock) to the Pearl Harbor attack force and other ships on the Tokyo broadcast violated radio silence when, in fact, the radio silence imposed then only meant that ships (or aircraft) are not permitted to transmit by high frequency radio, not that messages to these units cannot be sent by fleet broadcasts or that fleet units or commands that have land-line, cable or other approved facilities available to them cannot use them.
Apparently, Stinnett did come up with records to substantiate Hypo's summaries about the carrier Agaki being active on the air on 26 and 30 November 1941. However, there is no documentation that any high frequency direction finder (HFDF) fixes were available to Hypo on such transmissions. The single line bearings reportedly obtained by Corregidor's old DY-2 HFDF went by the island of Honshu as well as the Kurile Islands and the former location with acceptable HFDF variations was within Hypo's previous general determination of carrier locations. According to the book, a possible cross bearing from Dutch Harbor was found in that station's November monthly report that did not reach Station H until after 7 December and for some reason was not reproduced in the book. No documentary evidence was shown that such bearing was actually transmitted to Station H or subsequently forwarded to Rochefort at Hypo except a general statement as to routine forwarding by a Dutch Harbor operator.
Although the book claims more carrier and carrier commander transmissions were made after 26 and 30 November, this information is apparently due to a misinterpretation of the TESTM reports from Corregidor to Station H and a misunderstanding of traffic analysis procedures identifying call signs appearing in broadcast and point to point messages sent by shore communication stations. The single TESTM report provided in the book first lists the transmissions heard and their bearings and such bearings are mainly on unidentified call signs. Then, any fleet level call signs identifications made from the traffic analysis of message headings in shore station transmissions by Station Cast are given. In the enthusiasm to support its conspiracy theory, Stinnett apparently assumes that the latter call sign identifications by traffic analysis of shore station transmissions actually represent high frequency radio transmissions by such fleet units and commanders. Layton, Pelletier and Whitlock among others deny such transmissions were ever received. One wonders why Stinnett did not reproduce the other two TESTM reports upon which he relies to make his specific allegations to clarify his identification and deductive processes, especially since the one page reproduced does not support his allegations.
Gross misinterpretations of two decrypts and translations in the SRN series at the National Archives make up the other parts of the book's centerpiece of its conspiracy theory. In an effort to give some credence to its allegation of a massive conspiracy, the book contradicts the plain meaning on the face of translations of these two decrypted messages, established Japanese naval communications practice, and standard decryption procedures. These messages were reported on long ago by Frederick D. Parker in "Cryptologia" Vol. 15 (4) p. 295. However, Parker fully reported that JN-25B was being decrypted at best on a 10 percent basis in Washington and those November and December 1941 raw messages discussed were enroute to Washington D.C. so that they were not available to be worked on until long after the Pearl Harbor attack. The glaring omission in the book of this vital "unavailability" information is instructive.<>p> The first decrypt refers to naval spy Suzuki who was sent to the First Air Fleet on business to be picked up on 23 or 24 November at Hitokappu Wan (Bay). It is abundantly clear from the document that Hitokappu Wan is spelled out letter by letter in five numeral code groups of JN-25B because there was no two or three letter coded geographic designation available for this remote location (like AF for Midway Island.) Nevertheless, the book baldly claims, without any substantiation, that the words Hitokappu Wan were sent in plain language while the rest of the message was sent in code, an incredible absurdity. No other examples of plain language inserts within a high level Japanese naval coded message were ever claimed or reported.
No one else has had the temerity to make such a ridiculous assertion when confronted with the JN-25B code designation on the face of the decrypt and no reference to a plain language insert in the decrypt.,p> The second gross misinterpretation contained in the book is that Yamamoto's famous message of 2 December 1941 only referred to as "Climb Mount. Niitaka 1208" may have been sent in plain language. If so, it implies Rochefort knew of these two plain language "busts" by the Japanese and therefore is part of the conspiracy for not reporting them in his summaries. For this strong implication, one Japanese historian is cited saying the message was sent in the clear while Yamamoto's biographer is identified as saying the message was encoded in a five numeral code (JN-25B). Captain Pelletier in the Naval Cryptologic Veterans Association History Book confirmed this message was sent in JN-25. To show the extreme lengths the book will go to conjure up his implication of conspiracy, it omits the fact in the narrative that this message labeled SRN 115376 by the National Archives had a cryptographer's reference below the heading clearly showing that it was encoded in JN-25B.
Furthermore, Stinnett does not clearly point out to his readers that "Climb Mount Niitaka" was prefaced by the words, "This dispatch is Top Secret. This order is effective at 1730 on 2 December #10." Can you imagine the Japanese sending a Top Secret message in the clear and depending on a transparent underlying meaning for security? Except for battle tactical reports during the war, the Japanese seldom used plain language and even then preferred tactical codes. These are only a small part of the omissions, errors and misinterpretations contained in the book to try to make its revisionist conspiracy theory seem plausible to the uninitiated.
The book also resurrects the old allegations of Robert D. Ogg, a seaman in the 12th Naval District Intelligence office, and disregards Ogg's recorded interview by then Commander Newman that he only plotted two very closely parallel bearings from California stations 100 miles apart. Stinnett now says Ogg had prewar information on Japanese warship transmissions in the Kuriles with HFDF bearings by Dutch Harbor in spite of Ogg's original transcript to the contrary.
The old and thoroughly repudiated hearsay report of dead Dutch codebreakers' prewar determinations that Japanese carriers were in the North Pacific enroute to Hawaii are regurgitated by the book. Only now it has the Dutch putting them in the Kuriles instead of the North Pacific. Stinnett also repeats Parker's reporting of the tanker Shiriya moving eastward from the Bonin Islands in a 1 December 1941 message (SRN 115398) to Destroyer Division 7 with the Kido Butai that was intercepted on the Tokyo broadcast. Again, he does not tell his readers that this JN-25B message was only decrypted in 1945-46 and translated in 1946-47 and that the raw intercept was enroute to Washington DC in the U.S. postal system on 7 December 1941.
To further its revisionist conspiracy theory, the book argues that government censors are still withholding the publication of decryptions (and translations) of hundreds of vital Japanese naval messages whose secrecy is a part of this monstrous conspiracy. Stinnett points to missing Station Message Serial (SMS) numbers and missing versions of original transmissions by fleet units and commanders (supposedly on high frequency radio) that appear on shore station fleet broadcasts to naval ships and point to point circuits. However, the book does not mention that after the war navy analysts discovered that about 7,000 Japanese naval messages per month were forwarded to Washington from Corregidor, Guam and Hawaii from July to December 1941.
During the expanded intercept coverage of WWII, an OP-20-G official estimated that the U.S. intercepted 60 percent of Japanese naval traffic. Therefore, far more than 10,000 messages were probably sent over the airways by the Japanese Navy per month in the months before Pearl Harbor and less than 60 percent were actually intercepted. Thus, the missing SMS numbers and original transmissions could be accounted for by missed intercepts and transmissions originated by land-line, cable, visual means or even hand carried to shore radio stations. In fact, there was a cable office at Hitokappu Wan available to fleet units to send messages to Tokyo without transmitting on high frequency radio. Again, in 1945-46 analysts decrypted those intercepts from the Pacific that were available in Washington. A total of 26,581 messages in seven different crypto systems were intercepted between 5 September and 4 December 1941. Between 15 March 1946 to 20 August 1947, OP-20-G analysts and linguists from ONI undertook the study of these 26,581 post war decrypts and only 2,413 were considered important enough for full translations. Of these, only 188 were isolated as pertaining specifically to the events of 7 December 1941. This information contradicts Stinnett's assertion that government censors are withholding disclosure of hundreds of vital decrypted and translated messages in furtherance of the alleged conspiracy by President Roosevelt and many top an middle level government officials. Those 2,413 messages that were translated in this period are available in the SRN series and no other decrypts or translations are available for this period of time.
To his credit, Stinnett does recognize that the Winds Execute message (a favorite revisionist conspiracy allegation) was never sent. He also recounts Secretary of War Stimson's blatant attempt to reverse the Army Board of Inquiry's determination that Marshall was in dereliction of his duty as to his Pearl Harbor actions. Stimson sent attorney Clausen around the world to obtain new affidavits countering the witnesses' previous testimony of Marshall's neglect to act on Purple decrypts. However, Stinnett omits the fact that Clausen also tried to place the blame for not fully informing Hawaiian commanders on navy cryptologic officers. The latter effort is also part of the aim of this book, but its shot is far wide of the mark.
To those of us who are familiar with Japanese naval codes and communications procedures at the time, available documentation in the Pearl Harbor arena as well as the pertinent personnel and history of OP-20-G, it is abundantly clear that the book fails to prove any part of its massive revisionist conspiracy theory. In fact, the expansion of prior revisionist conspiracy theories to include so many new allegations of wrong doing by Roosevelt and his mid and high level co-conspirators plus a continuing cover-up makes its enormous conspiracy theory a complete impossibility. In conclusion, it is still clear that no U.S. official knew beforehand of the Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbor or discovered that the Kido Butai was on its way to Hawaii for such an attack in spite of this latest in a series of revisionist conspiracy theory books.
As to the SS Lurline logs, these were Japanese commercial transmissions in the commercial shipping band, not Japanese naval transmissions from the Kido Butai. You should also know that the records custodian that Stinnett quoted is very angry that he grossly misquoted her accounting of these files in San Bruno. Typical Stinnett SOP. Stinnett also referred to them as Navy files when they were actually Coast Guard files.
As to Nave and Rusbridgers revisionist conspiracy book, "Betrayal at Pearl Harbor," Nave completely reversed himself on Japanese TV admitting that Rusbridgers allegations were fantacies. I have a tape of that program in Japanese. Recent releases of British cryptologic documents from Kew show that the British were, if anything, behind the U.S. in decrypting JN-25B and that they had only recovered some 3,000 code values out of over 55,000 and only ten percent of the additive book used up to 4 December 1941. This equates on average to one group out of every 100 in a message. Thus your theory that Churchill warned Roosevelt of the impending Pearl Harbor attack is baseless also.
The only evidence to support this is a book of completely unverifiable provenance; it is alleged to be a CIA debriefing of a Nazi war criminal who disappeared at the end of World War II. Supposedly, the CIA was using this guy to run agents in the USSR.
There are some problems. First off, the Gestapo guy was NEVER seen after World War II by any civilians--so there is no independent verification that this guy survived after 1945. Second, there are some basic errors of fact in this book that cast doubt on its authenticity--particularly in the account of the hunt for the "Red Orchestra" spy ring. That calls into question the factuality of the entire book. Third, FDR and Churchill were both EXTREMELY cagey individuals, who would NOT give each other blackmail material in a phone conversation--and this stuff would be political dyanamite.
I in turn suggest you read post #30 & #69 ... Robert Stinnett had an agenda and twisted the data to accommodate his hypothesis.
Where have you heard about this?
Actually, most of the Purple decrypts transmitted to President Roosevelt particulary from mid-1941 on were delivered to President Roosevelt by Ensign Schultz of OP-20-G by hand and not through the mail by Lt. Cmdr. McCollum of the Office of Naval Intelligence. Originally, these messages were transmitted to Roosevelt on alternate days by the Army's cryptologic agency, SIS, and OP-20-G of the Navy. However, the Army found one of their decrypts in a waste basket at the White House and refused to deliver any more to FDR. Therefore, the Navy that is OP-20-G (not ONI) took over and hand delivered them on both even and odd days of the month.
In order to further his revisionist conspiracy theory, Stinnett implies a much closer relationship between ONI and OP-20-G than actually existed. Thus, he invented a nomenclature that did not exist, namely "Station US." McCollum was a part of ONI then called OP-16 headed up by Captain Anderson, while OP-20-G under Captain Safford was a part of Naval Communications. Actually, OP-20-G was also referred to as "Station N" or sometimes internally as "George", the then flag phonetic for G, but never as Station US. Of course, Station US was never a substitute for ONI or OP-16.
You seem to have glossed over my comment that Captain Kirk's response to Lt. Comdr. McCollums so called "Eight Point" memo indicates that it may not have been forwarded on to Captain Anderson at all, but returned to him without such forwarding. In naval correspondence, such and endorsement would normally have started out with "1. Forwarded (with any qualifying comments). The absence of such a forwarding endorsement to me, strongly suggests it was sent back to McCollum with Captain Kirk's listed comments and never got to Anderson much less to FDR as Stinnett unashamedly contends.
Wilford admitted some of his errors and lamely fell back on SRH-355, which clearly referred to JN-25A not JN-25B by its time frame. The best records on JN-25B decrypts are found in "The History of OP-20-GYP" in the Crane Files at the National Archives. Essentially, no formal decrypts were ever made before Pearl Harbor. I have copies of the first 25 decrypts made by the U.S. Navy and they start with one in January, 1942, two or three in February and the rest in March, 1942. British records also do not show any such JN-25B decrypts until 1942.
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