Posted on 11/16/2001 1:18:12 PM PST by justme346
OSAMA BIN LADEN and his Arab terrorist cohorts will soon have no place to run and no place to hide if the popular uprising in the Pathan belt of southern Afghanistan continues.
Western intelligence operatives are racing to interview defecting Taliban soldiers and commanders who have arrived in Pakistan and who might know bin Laden's hiding places.
The uprising against Taliban rule in southern Afghanistan, following so soon after the movement's defeat in the north, has left bin Laden with few hiding places.
Along with about 300 Arab bodyguards, he could be in several places but the most likely is southern Afghanistan, where he will find last minute succor with any Taliban forces who have chosen to defy the onslaught.
Since 1996 bin Laden has depended on support, protection and supplies from the Taliban leadership. His Arabs have needed Taliban guides, interpreters and logistics officers to guide them across the difficult terrain, speak to local people and provide the necessary food and water.
Previously that was possible because of the Taliban's ruthless control over the Pathan population. They had to provide bin Laden with support with no questions asked.
Now that structure is suddenly vanishing and, without the support of the population and Taliban logistics, bin Laden runs the risk of becoming stranded. The Arabs are alien and hated by the population and they are now the target of Afghan wrath.
The Arabs are estimated to number between 3,000 and 5,000, but there are believed to be a further 5,000 to 10,000 fighters from Pakistan, Central Asia and Islamic countries further east.
For the first time many Pathans may be ready to betray bin Laden. Hundreds of Taliban commanders and troops have fled to Pakistan with their families and many of them may know the locations of his many hideouts, some that he has constructed deep in the mountains over the years.
These former Taliban will offer the American, British and Pakistani intelligence agencies a mine of real information about bin Laden for the first time.
Washington's reward of $25 million for the capture of bin Laden dead or alive will not just be an incentive and lure, but also a guarantee for their own future security and safety.
Diplomats said America was already flooding the Afghan tribal belt along the Pakistani border with dollars to elicit information from the defecting Taliban. "It's now money that will talk, not guns and bombs," said one diplomat in Islamabad.
"It may very well be that money will talk at some time," Donald Rumsfeld, the US defense secretary, told reporters on Monday. Bin Laden, however, has had years of experience in escaping American attempts to catch him.
After US forces fired about 70 cruise missiles at his hideouts in 1998 in retaliation for the bombing of two American embassies in Africa, it was reported that he had developed several new hiding places.
He was said to be building bunkers and caves in the hills near Jalalabad, in the mountains of Khost close to the Pakistani border, at Jagi Maydan in Paktia province and at several secret locations in the mountainous provinces of Uruzghan and Ghor provinces and the deserts of Helmand province.
Two years ago, Pathan tribesmen reported that Arab-led convoys were taking large amounts of building materials - cement and steel - to an area in northern Urozghan province, where the population is sparse and there are no metalled roads.
Local Pathans were moved out of several locations on the orders of the Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar.
If bin Laden tries to flee the country he is most likely to end up in Pakistan's Pathan tribal belt, where there are many hiding places and there is considerable public support for him.
In recent weeks there have also been reports that groups in eastern Iran have been smuggling Arabs into Afghanistan to fight for the Taliban, so there is a possibility that bin Laden may have developed hiding places in Iran - although that is unlikely.
Wherever he is, the most likely scenario is that bin Laden will be betrayed by the very people who have given him sanctuary for so many years: the Taliban. It is now in the interests of most Pathans to stop the US bombing.
They know that finding bin Laden will certainly do that.
Ahmed Rashid
Actually, we had forgotten what it was like to have real news. I saw a bit of Barbara Walters being interviewed on Larry King last night, and she said that right before September 11, 80% of the prime-time news was devoted to features and "news you can use." She actually said the media was somewhat at fault for not covering the threat of terrorism.
Once again, a jaw-dropping moment. They are becoming increasingly common.
More details as the story unfolds.
Forget Osama Bin Laden and nuclear terrorism, lets get back to the real important issue of campaign finance reform and snail darters, pup fish, and fur coats.
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