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SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN!
e-mail | 3/16/2002 | Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc

Posted on 03/16/2002 6:15:13 PM PST by dalereed

THE INSIDER: Political Information Network

THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties

FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.

RE: Simon Solidly Ahead of Davis in New California Poll

DATE: March 16, 2002

SIMON LEADS DAVIS BY SEVEN!

48% - 41%

SACRAMENTO - A recent statewide poll conducted by the nationally recognized political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), reveals that businessman and charity leader Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41%.

The poll results reveal that Gray Davis is extremely vulnerable in his re-election campaign, and California voters are looking to a new leader like Bill Simon to rescue the state from the litany of crises that have exploded on Davis' watch.

Simon Leads Davis Among Both Women and Men

Despite false claims by the Davis campaign that Simon would have a difficult time attracting support from female voters, Simon actually leads Davis among women by a 46%-43% margin. Among men Davis is especially weak. Simon receives support from a majority of men (51%) while only 39% of men support the troubled incumbent Governor.

Democrats Remain Lukewarm Towards Davis - Republicans Solidly Behind Simon

Davis' failures as Governor have been so pronounced that he has a difficult time retaining the support of even registered Democrats. While 81% of Republicans support Simon, Davis receives the support of merely 63% of Democrats.

This point is even more strongly underscored by the intensity of support the two candidates receive. 71% of Republicans strongly support Simon while only 48% of Democrats strongly support Davis.

Simon Lead Over Davis Extends Throughout the State - Including Los Angeles

Just as Bill Simon's lead over Davis extends across numerous demographics, Simon's support similarly is not limited to a specific region in the state. Simon leads in every media market of the state except San Francisco. Among the major media markets Simon's lead is dramatic.

SIMON- DAVIS Ballot by Major Media Market

SAN DIEGO SIMON 57% DAVIS 33%

SACRAMENTO SIMON 52% DAVIS 34%

LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%

?

SAN FRANCISCO SIMON 38% DAVIS 54%

Davis Viewed Unfavorably By 50% of California Voters

After mishandling the state's education policies, energy crisis and budget and fiscal problems, California voters have formed a seriously negative view of Gray Davis. One out of every two voters (50%) views Gray Davis in an unfavorable light.

Meanwhile, almost half of all voters (45%) have a favorable view of Bill Simon, only 42% of voters have a favorable view of Davis.

Davis Failures and Unfavorable Image Lead Voters to Look for Someone New

Davis image problems and poor job performance have resulted in only 36% of voters expressing a desire to re-elect him. A startling 55% of voters said "a new person should be elected Governor of California." Historically when such a number is higher than 50%, it has foreshadowed a resounding defeat for the incumbent on Election Day.

Primary Campaign Perfectly Positioned Simon for General Election Victory

Simon campaign chief strategist, Sal Russo, said, "the primary election campaign which focused on Bill Simon as the candidate of ideas has resonated well with California voters. While Gray Davis is focused on blaming everybody else for his failed leaderships, voters are responding to Bill Simon's message of ideas for solving California's problems."

###

____________________________________ Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc

770 L Street, Suite 950

Sacramento, CA 95814

(916) 441-3734


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: simon
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Things are looking better all the time!
1 posted on 03/16/2002 6:15:13 PM PST by dalereed
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To: dalereed
God bless you California freepers!
If/when Simon is elected it will be a wonderful day!
2 posted on 03/16/2002 6:18:44 PM PST by katherineisgreat
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To: dalereed
LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%

That's amazing.

However, polls don't mean that much. It comes down to TURNOUT.

3 posted on 03/16/2002 6:20:04 PM PST by Dan from Michigan
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To: dalereed
Gray Davis is a seriously incompetent socialist and Californians would have to be insane to re-elect him.

Uh-oh. Now I'm worried.

4 posted on 03/16/2002 6:22:43 PM PST by Batrachian
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To: dalereed
"Vote for Simon, he's not isane!"

5 posted on 03/16/2002 6:24:11 PM PST by Toidylop
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To: dalereed
And even now, Gray Davis is milking the situation by causing (indirectly) a sharp upward trend in gasoline prices. Elect him, and he will fight the evil refineries and force them to sell gasoline at a loss, which will be made up by taking from the surplus in the California state treasury. It worked for the electric utilities, didn't it?

Small flaw. Not too much surplus left in the state treasury. And the oil companies have other markets for their products, outside of California.

Is Gray Davis deranged, or does he take pills to remain so willfully uninformed?

6 posted on 03/16/2002 6:24:20 PM PST by alloysteel
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To: dalereed
Watch the smears begin.
7 posted on 03/16/2002 6:24:47 PM PST by PJ-Comix
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To: dalereed
Congrats California Freepers! Keep up the great work!

We here in Illinois have some work of our own to do. One lying Incumbent RINO on the way out the door, working very hard to replace him with a Conservative.

Tuesday is primary day here in Illinois. Keeping my fingers crossed...

8 posted on 03/16/2002 6:26:01 PM PST by usconservative
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To: Dan from Michigan
" It comes down to TURNOUT."

I hope that the democrats don't pull one of their nasty tricks and place a bunch of hot button issues on the ballot in order to generate democrat turnout. They have pulled it in the past.

9 posted on 03/16/2002 6:26:12 PM PST by dalereed
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To: alloysteel
Theoretically, Simon is in the position to rebuff these ridiculous claims and place the fault on Davis.
10 posted on 03/16/2002 6:26:16 PM PST by GraniteStateConservative
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To: dalereed
Spectacular!

Now let's not let up. It's going to be a fight to the finish.

11 posted on 03/16/2002 6:26:54 PM PST by CounterCounterCulture
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To: dalereed
Dale if we can get a big turnout at the polls with conservatives we will win. If 70% of the registered republican voters of California come out and vote, even if you live in liberal areas (like SF) Simon will win and win big.
12 posted on 03/16/2002 6:27:11 PM PST by I_Love_My_Husband
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To: dalereed
I think the world of ya. But this polling stuff is w-a-a-y-y too early to shout about. This is going to be a tough race. And there is a very real possibility that Bill Simon will win. But we don't count our chickens before they hatch, do we? We keep our faces to the grindstone and make it happen.

We want the gray out! But the polls haven't determined anything just yet.

13 posted on 03/16/2002 6:28:36 PM PST by Buckeroo
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To: grlfrnd
Every conservative needs to call every Republican they know and make sure they vote.

One thing that i've noticed is that to date I haven't seen one Simon or Davis bumper sticker (except on my pickup and my wifes car) and I drive 500-600 miles a week at all times of the day.

14 posted on 03/16/2002 6:34:35 PM PST by dalereed
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To: grlfrnd
Just Remember,

DUMP DAVIS

That's going to be MY bumper sticker.

15 posted on 03/16/2002 6:38:33 PM PST by Regulator
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To: dalereed
This is going to be one of those buckets of ice cold water that gets tossed into the faces of reporters every now and then, to remind them that nobody reads their stuff and nobody believes them.

This time last month, the liberal jerks in the media had already decided, on behalf of all Republicans, in fact for the Republicans' own good, that the "correct" candidate for the GOP to nominate -- if it wanted to have even a chance -- was Riordan. As far as the California media domeheads were concerned, there wasn't anyone else in the race. This Simon guy was just some right-wing kookburger that those marginalized conservatives in the GOP hoped to score a primary upset with, but he didn't have a chance, and if did he win by some fluke, Davis would dispatch him with a flick of the wrist.

And now this.

Bwaa Ha Ha!

16 posted on 03/16/2002 6:38:35 PM PST by Nick Danger
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To: dalereed
No it's not. We all know that if the Democratic base goes to vote, we're toast. The idea is to let them think Simon is behind, that way they'll stay home. This is going to be a long seven months.
17 posted on 03/16/2002 6:41:23 PM PST by Hildy
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To: dalereed
What has Simon been up to? I have not read anything about him after he won till now. I hope he is not taking a break. To beat davis not only does he need big numbers to turnout but he also needs to work those cities to keep davis and his money locked up.
18 posted on 03/16/2002 6:42:01 PM PST by Libertarian_4_eva
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To: usconservative
I just moved to Illinois about a week ago. Can I vote in the primary (for O' Malley of course)?
19 posted on 03/16/2002 6:42:22 PM PST by Mini-14
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To: dalereed
Hey, does anyone know Simon's position on CCW, and does he have any plans about them?
20 posted on 03/16/2002 6:42:51 PM PST by monkeyshine
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To: katherineisgreat
If true, this is great news. But the LA Times has 6 months to "educate" the sheeple about how "extremist" Simon is.
21 posted on 03/16/2002 6:43:18 PM PST by cutlass
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To: dalereed
Just 18 months ago this guy was on top of the world.
22 posted on 03/16/2002 6:43:47 PM PST by VA Advogado
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To: dalereed
You crazy.
Didn't you know that only a liberal Democrat like Riordan has any chance to beat Davis?
23 posted on 03/16/2002 6:47:16 PM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: Libertarian_4_eva
Many of Simon's campaign staffers have just now returned from a post-primary vacation, and they're currently discussing general election strategies.
24 posted on 03/16/2002 6:47:36 PM PST by research99
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To: dalereed
YAHOOOO!!! Freeep on from Texas ...

As for polls - Yes it is very early, but this is great anyway. First, Simon is a newcomer. Normally, he would have to build name ID to get in the running. Second, Davis is vulnerable; the whole "electability" question has been solved. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR MONEY REASONS. It means Simon can use these poll numbers to agressively raise the cash he needs to compete by showing he is indeed 'electable'. Davis will have a big budget and Simon needs to compete.

Third, and obvious: When incumbent is TRAILING this early, it signals people want a change. Davis will try to run against Bill Simon, but that is not enough. If Bill Simon shows positive leadership qualities and doesnt get 'defined' by Davis, he will win.

In fact, if I were Simon, I'd be crisscrossoing the state making speeches about my plans and hopes for Cali and *not* attacking Davis directly. This is how GW Bush won his Gov race against incumbent Ann Richards in 1994. She was vulnerable, but he ran a *positive* campaign focussed on a few issues. He won by 8%.

Early and energetic activism will make all the difference here - it will stop Davis from winning by 'defining' Simon via 30 second attacks ads. Great idea to get those bumper stickers out there. maybe some flyers too, to share with repub friends. the sooner the better, to get the word out.

25 posted on 03/16/2002 6:48:30 PM PST by WOSG
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To: dalereed
Simon leads by seven? Take a picture, it will last longer. I've been there before, here in New York.
26 posted on 03/16/2002 6:52:25 PM PST by lavrenti
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To: dalereed
So says Bararnabus the poodle so says California!
27 posted on 03/16/2002 6:53:05 PM PST by Bogey78O
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To: dalereed;wphile;Mama-Bear;JustAmy;SiFiPattie;ladyinred;senorita;Saundra Duffy;CheneyChick...
A recent statewide poll conducted by the nationally recognized political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), reveals that businessman and charity leader Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41%.

Just amazing! **Jumping-for-joy Ping**

28 posted on 03/16/2002 6:59:54 PM PST by mtngrl@vrwc
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To: Hildy
"We all know that if the Democratic base goes to vote, we're toast."

That is not what the poll numbers above show--to the contrary, they show that if we get a straight proportunate turn out, Simon wins; even if the Dems get a disproportunate turn out, we still win if they don't beat us in the turn out race by six percent.

Although this poll is an early run, it looks awfully good for Simon. It tells us the people have decided to throw the incumbent out and that they have some positive view of our candidate who also is ahead by more than the margin of error. In that seat, it is difficult for an independent attack ad to do enough damage to beat you.

29 posted on 03/16/2002 7:02:25 PM PST by David
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To: dalereed
it figures that 'queerville' would reject simon.
come on calif., 'lights out for davis' in november!
30 posted on 03/16/2002 7:05:29 PM PST by rockfish59
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To: Dan from Michigan; dalereed
I did a quick spin through the issues coming up, and none of them looked particular interesting to the Democrats, with one potentially explosive exception.

This is a very interesting one coming from Ward Connerley (I think that's spelling is more or less right) saying that California should not collect racial statistics or make purchasing decisions based on race. This is a loaded grenade and is likely to make turnout on both sides high.

The LA Weekly's current issue has one of their trademark political essays, lengthly to the point of tedium, claiming that since the electorate is leftist, especially in LA and SF, Davis was right in his strategy to bury Riordan and help Simon, who of course will be crushed in the general. The much more conservative Jill Stewart of the New Times thinks so as well.

I think disgust with the present administration is going to carry the day. Davis will have a tough time at best spinning his record. Even the LA Weekly admits that they will hold their nose when voting for Davis.

My best guess is that the LA Weekly crowd isn't going to turn out in any great numbers for Davis, a man they despise. Since Republicans are more likely voters in any event, I think that tilts the advantage towards Simon.

I don't think we should be complacent; all of us should get behind Simon. But we should be of good cheer while doing it. I think this story is good as a tonic of optimism in an often pessimistic world; if we are too optimistic, we will not bother voting; if we are too pessimistic, we won't bother voting because we don't think our guy has a chance. So we should continue to this election optimistic, but recognizing that every vote counts.

D

31 posted on 03/16/2002 7:08:34 PM PST by daviddennis
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To: dalereed
Unfortunately, the election is a long way down the road, but better to be ahead by 7 than behind.
32 posted on 03/16/2002 7:09:53 PM PST by Brilliant
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To: dalereed
Let's hope this holds when Grayout Davis starts his 'nasty' campaign!
33 posted on 03/16/2002 7:10:54 PM PST by Salvation
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To: Libertarian_4_eva
He has been keeping busy!

Last Week

Humboldt Creamery Tour - Eureka

Homeowner/Taxpayer Event - Chico

Legislative Republican Luncheon - Sacramento

School Tour - Santa Barbara

School Tour - Monterey

Small Business Tour - Oakland

Hispanic Business Meeting - San Diego

This Week

Iranian Republican Council Reception - Santa Monica

Meeting with RNC Chairman Marc Racicot - Sacramento

Mount Sac Community College Visit - Walnut

34 posted on 03/16/2002 7:14:42 PM PST by dalereed
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To: dalereed
Rats are toast. I expect Daschle to attack Bush real soon. There is nothing left to lose.
35 posted on 03/16/2002 7:16:24 PM PST by VRWC_minion
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To: alloysteel
Well if it's hot summer Davis will be even more cooked. All those air conditioners running with the new super high-tiered electricity rates and blammooo, Davis is the guy everyone will blame as they write the checks. November won't be far enough away for many to forget…
36 posted on 03/16/2002 7:17:13 PM PST by DB
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To: dalereed
The entire press release can be viewed here:

http://www.pos.org/html/simonpressrelease.htm

It's analysis of how the race progressed is interesting reading.

I would have posted it here, but I couldn't get it to format right.

37 posted on 03/16/2002 7:17:15 PM PST by Joaquin
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To: Libertarian_4_eva
"What has Simon been up to?... I hope he is not taking a break."

He's traveling all over the state. He's in constant motion. Getting his message out, building friendships, taking the state's pulse. Go here to find out more, to contribute to his campaign, to volunteer, to get on his e-mail list.

38 posted on 03/16/2002 7:18:37 PM PST by Bonaparte
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To: PJ-Comix
Watch the smears begin.

You said it. We'll see where Simon stands after the patented Gray Davis "Bigot-racist-sexist-fascist-hate-filled-homophobe" campaign begins.

39 posted on 03/16/2002 7:19:14 PM PST by Euro-American Scum
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To: Libertarian_4_eva
What has Simon been up to? I have not read anything about him after he won till now. I hope he is not taking a break. To beat davis not only does he need big numbers to turnout but h

Simon was here in Humboldt County last week. Photo opp at the local creamery to dedicate their new $750,000 generator . Will keep the Jerseys and Holstiens contented when Gov Doofus turns the lites out. Simon then flew to Chico the Velvetta Capitol of the world.

40 posted on 03/16/2002 7:20:59 PM PST by tubebender
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To: Euro-American Scum
It's true, they're going to play all those cards. But Simon is so clean, so above their taunts! BTW, I emailed Simon my thoughts on what to say about a certain hot button issue and to my surprise he said what I said to say almost verbatim! The man is a good man!
41 posted on 03/16/2002 7:22:55 PM PST by I_Love_My_Husband
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To: Euro-American Scum
A few more tirades like he went into with the editorial staff of the San Diego Union last week and Davis is toast.
42 posted on 03/16/2002 7:23:14 PM PST by dalereed
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To: WOSG
Great post, WOSG! All the things you've mentioned are being done. W will be here next month to speak up for Bill Simon and raise some serious money.
43 posted on 03/16/2002 7:23:57 PM PST by Bonaparte
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To: dalereed
Awesome!!!!! Davis has no chance if voters find out what he is truly all about! See California AB 537!!! Go Bill!
44 posted on 03/16/2002 7:24:38 PM PST by gohabsgo
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To: rockfish59
"it figures that 'queerville' would reject simon."

Let them. California rejected 'queerville' by a 2/3 majority in 2000 (definition of marriage amendment).

45 posted on 03/16/2002 7:27:51 PM PST by Bonaparte
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To: daviddennis
Since Republicans are more likely voters in any event, I think that tilts the advantage towards Simon.

I think thay USED to be true. However as many as 4 million rightwingers stayed home in the last presidential election and it hurt us BADLY(That was brought up at the last local GOP meeting I was at too).

I don't think we should be complacent; all of us should get behind Simon. But we should be of good cheer while doing it. I think this story is good as a tonic of optimism in an often pessimistic world; if we are too optimistic, we will not bother voting; if we are too pessimistic, we won't bother voting because we don't think our guy has a chance. So we should continue to this election optimistic, but recognizing that every vote counts

I tend to sound more pessimistic than I am. It comes from my football background. I'm a coach and former player. Everyone wanted to beat our team. It's a "Us against the world" mentality. "Everyone"(The elite) wants to beat the NRA. We don't have the media and all the talent to win. That means we need hard work to win. Giving up is not part of who I am, so that means there is one option. Outwork the enemy and win, and beat them so bad that they will never come back, and put in your 2nd stringers to gain them experience.

Engler did that to Fieger in 98. Coattails took out most of the dems in the swing districts. We control redistricting, so we win, got a good farm club, and are in fairly good shape down the ticket.

Everyone is out to beat Simon. Simon is the underdog. I don't care if he's up by 25 points. He's the underdog. Now there are two options. Chicken out, or outwork the enemy.

There's the choice.

46 posted on 03/16/2002 7:28:24 PM PST by Dan from Michigan
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To: Dan from Michigan
Well, I'll bet alot of Dems stay home. They don't appear too energised to me. Is this registered or likely voters? They never say...
47 posted on 03/16/2002 7:30:26 PM PST by stands2reason
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To: dalereed
This is sweet. If Simon wins and retains his popularity, President Bush will easily carry California in '04.

I have believed for quite some time that VP Cheney will not be on the ticket next time around. Perhaps we will see the likes of Simon?

48 posted on 03/16/2002 7:32:31 PM PST by AlGone2001
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To: dalereed
Great news! But I think I'd think twice before calling my polling company POS!
49 posted on 03/16/2002 7:32:33 PM PST by JennysCool
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To: Mini-14
Nope. Have to be a resident 6 months prior to the primary. You make sure you register to vote in the General in November though!
50 posted on 03/16/2002 7:33:47 PM PST by usconservative
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