China Space Chief Vows Manned Flight By 2005 (Nov 27, 2001

The head of the Chinese space agency declared on the first anniversary of the release of China's long-range space plan that the first manned mission would take place by 2005. In a remark that he gave at the anniversary forum here on Nov. 22, and published the day before in Science and Technology Daily, the Administrator of China National Space Administration (CNSA) Luan Enjie reiterated the different elements of the space plan that China would pursue in the current and 10th five-year economic development period, dubbed "10 5" which ends in 2005. Luan also reviewed achievements in the past year since the government issued the space plan.

Last year on Nov. 22, 2000 the Information Office of the State Council released a White Paper on the long-range Chinese space plan, the first ever of such a plan. The release of the White Paper coincided with the first anniversary of the maiden unmanned test flight of the Shenzhou manned spacecraft, which completed its 14-orbit, 21-hour mission on Nov. 20, 1999.

Attending the forum, which the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) sponsored, were more than 100 leaders from the Information Office; State Development Planning Commission; ministries of Foreign Affairs, Agriculture, Land and Resources, Water Resources, and National Environment Protection Administration; Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Meteorological Association, State Oceanic Administration, and various aerospace research institutes.

Luan said that the space program along with high tech programs in electronic information, biology, new material, new energy, and advanced manufacturing would received State support as key development projects in the "10 5 Plan".

Under the guidance of the White Paper, COSTIND announced earlier this year the " '10 5' Civil Space Development Program" which described the goals and blueprint of the civil space program in the immediate five-year period and beyond.

Perhaps the components that would draw the most attention are the manned space project and the development of a lunar exploration program.

Since the publication of the White Paper, China successfully completed the second unmanned test flight of Shenzhou in January this year. Some of the science experiments returned to Earth in the Descent Module after a 6-day flight, and Principal Investigators claimed major breakthroughs in many of these experiments. The Orbital Module with other science experiments on board continued to operate until the reentry of the module on Aug. 24.

Luan said, "China had initiated research in manned spaceflight technology for several years, and successfully launched two unmanned test missions of the [Shenzhou] spacecraft in 1999 and 2001 respectively. In the '10 5' period China will realize manned spaceflight."

Although Chinese space officials have not publicly confirmed launch preparation of the third unmanned test flight of Shenzhou, the respected website Go Taikonauts! reports that the launch may come as early as next month. However, in a recent report in the African newspaper The Namibian a Chinese space official hinted that the SZ-3 launch might not take place until early next year.

Chinese space officials have said repeatedly that no manned mission will occur until the safety of the yuhangyuans ("astronauts") can be guaranteed.

Meanwhile one of the least known components of the manned space project, the training of yuhangyuans, is publicly acknowledged recently. In an interview published in the Nov. 12 issue of Aviation Week & Space Technology, Luan confirms that about a dozen yuhangyuans are in training. However, none of the trainees have been named as the crew of the historic manned mission.

Mooning About With Future Plans China's first venture in deep space exploration will be an expedition to the Moon. The " '10 5' Civil Space Development Program" calls for preliminary study on lunar exploration and identification of scientific objectives of lunar missions. But both the White Paper and the " '10 5' Civil Space Development Program" do not specify any details and timeline. Such information was not discussed at the anniversary forum last week either.

However, Beijing Morning Post wrote on Oct. 10 that in the report "Policy and Perspective of China Aerospace Development" which Luan Enjie delivered at the China Aerospace Industry Hi-Tech Forum, China would aim at building a moonbase in ten years. Other news articles said that Luan's report listed a timeline of a Chinese lunar outpost by 2005, a moonbase in 2010 and an experimental factory and farm by 2020.

The two-day Hi-Tech Forum took place here on Oct. 8 and 9. At the time the news caused a stir in both domestic and foreign media.

Interestingly a scientist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Ouyang Ziyuan, wrote of such a visionary scenario with a very similar timeline in a book that the academy published last year.

Some aerospace experts expressed reservation to such a claim. In an interview with China Youth Daily on Oct. 12 Jiang Jingshan, a member of CAS, said with a surprise: "There seems to be a mistake with the timeline. Even the United States, which leads in space technologies, cannot possibly accomplish the three main objectives [of establishing an outpost, a moonbase and an experimental factory and farm] in such a short timeframe!"

He added, "Scientists at other countries recognize that establishing a lunar base for human use would take tens of years!"

Sun Zengqi, a space robot specialist and Vice Dean of the Department of Computer Science and Technology at the prestigious Tsinghua University in Beijing shares the view of Jiang.

In Oct. 2000 he told Xinhua News Agency that robotic missions would precede any manned expedition to the Moon. "Robots will take on key exploration tasks before Chinese yuhangyuans land on the Moon," said Sun.

According to Sun robot explorers would scout for manned mission landing sites and areas of scientific interest, place science instruments on the surface and collect samples, and transmit video imagery.

Jiang, the former chief of the National High Technology Space Science and Applications Group, also delivered a report last month at the Hi-Tech Forum -- incidentally on lunar exploration. In his report he described exploitation and utilization of energy and mineral resources on the Moon.

Jiang thinks that China would launch orbiters in its initial lunar exploration, then lunar rover and sample return missions, and eventually human expedition. The ultimate goal, in Jiang's opinion, is setting up a "lunar village".

He emphasizes that China would definitely begin exploration of the Moon and believes that the current level of Chinese lunar exploration technology is comparable that of developed countries at 20 to 30 years ago.

Jiang explained in China Youth Daily: "Lunar exploration is really a complex science and technology system engineering. The so-called outpost, permanent habitat cannot be completed in a few years time. They require an attitude of recognizing and understanding human sciences and a relatively lengthy effort."

Jiang added, "China has only made its first steps in lunar spacecraft research. People still need to have plenty of patience waiting."

This overlooked item is worth noting.

The US ended Apollo almost 30 years ago. Space travel and lunar bases seem more distant now than when 2001 was released. The High Frontier came and went. There is barely an operating space station up there.

The problem seems to be commercial; without some payoff there is no incentive to invest the resources required to swiftly complete any space oriented project. A threat to security seems to be the only imperative that would make space buffs wide-eyed again. Seeing how tough a sell a space based national security system of global and lunar security would be, it seems we are forced to wait for an enabling event that forces us to generate the necessary response.

China putting a man on the moon and claiming it for nationalistic reasons might be one such event. Look at the bright side, there'd be some killer Chinese restaurants for all the tourists.

China plans lunar landing, Mars Mission-CNN

From October 2000, a more honest expression of China's goals.

Although details were few, one thing the experts made clear: China sees manned space flight as key to securing its international stature and economic survival.

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I've heard they're on track for a 2003 manned flight after the successful flight of their last Shenzou. I don't think we'll sit idly by and let them claim the moon. I hope enough Americans still care enough to do something about it.

I hope we would not; Wonder how long it would take for us to get back there. All the guys from Apollo are long gone by now. Fully expected as a kid that by now we'd have those 2001 hotels at least. Oh, well, Nixon had to buy that social programs vs space program argument when he cut the space program.

NEVER FORGET

...Communist China's real 1st Man in Space =

...GOD Speed ...JOHN GLENN...!!!!

NEVER FORGET

A scenario that could happen is that once we're done with the ISS, NASA will be compelled to establish another goal. Conventional thinking would say that they will try for Mars. In ten years it's likely that China will have made considerable progress towards landing someone on the moon. It might be enough that it would cause some discomfort to the American public. This in turn could compel a future president to set a goal for NASA to go back to the moon to set up a base there. At the same time, private companies should have some degree of success at space tourism within the next ten years. The moon is a very attractive and natural tourist destination. We could see the first efforts to set up hotels there in about 15 years. IMHO private companies can do this a whole lot better than NASA. It's possible that NASA could,by presidential mandate, rush back in Apollo-like fashion to set up a base there. It's also possible,given the interest of private companies, they would want to move in to NASA's base and let paying tourists begin going there. It doesn't seem that far-fetched, after all this is exactly what's happening with the ISS.

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