"Praetorian Guard" - Chavez purging military - 106 generals axed

CARACAS - Amid new threats of a military coup, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has purged nearly half the armed forces leadership and replaced it with younger officers believed to be loyal to his leftist ideals.

Chávez has removed so many generals and admirals since a failed coup last month that he has been obliged to appoint some lower-ranking colonels in their place, further irking proud commanders by bypassing requirements that top officers fill top posts.

But the crackdown has not stopped secret groups of mid-level officers from issuing threats, including one last weekend, to topple Chávez unless he amends his populist pro-Cuban course and efforts to politicize the military.

Chávez promised there would be no ''witch hunt'' against the military. Only six senior officers have been officially charged in the coup that saw Chávez deposed and then reinstated. But publicly announced command changes since his April 14 return to power show a massive purge in the 80,000-member armed forces.

In the past month, the president has axed 106 of the 260 generals and admirals, leaving them without posts. But he's allowing them to stay in service, at least until new promotions scheduled for July.

Another 500 lower-ranking officers were sent home under suspicion of supporting the coup or failing to back the president on April 11, said Fernando Ochoa Antich, a retired army general and staunch Chávez critic.

They include the commanders of all five infantry and tank battalions stationed in central Caracas, critical to any potential coup, plus 30 members of the secret police, known as DISIP.

Far from creating stability, the crackdown has increased the political fragility of the world's fourth-largest oil producer, which remains bitterly divided between backers and foes of Chávez's avowed ''peaceful revolution'' on behalf of poor Venezuelans.

''A new coup is the topic of the day because the military see a clear danger to themselves if Chávez keeps turning them into a praetorian guard,'' said Aníbal Romero, a political analyst who teaches at the Navy War College.

DISIP's new head, Lt. Col. Miguel Rodriguez Torres, served on Chávez's staff after his election in 1998. He later served as chief organizer of the Bolivarian Circles, groups of pro-Chávez civilians allegedly armed and trained by the government to help defend the president's revolution.

Chávez also gave top posts to three generals who helped return him to power: Alí Uzcátegui as head of Military Intelligence; Luis García Montoya as army chief; and paratrooper brigade chief Raúl Baduel as commander of the 4th Army Division.

Gen. Lucas Rincón, who was commander in chief of the armed forces on April 11 but did not join the coup, at least according to Chávez, was promoted to minister of defense and has retained day-to-day command of the military.

Chávez has long angered many officers by insisting that they support his ''revolution,'' promoting friends over more qualified candidates, creating the Bolivarian Circles and befriending Cuba and Marxist guerrillas in neighboring Colombia.

'The military is no longer a solid monolithic block. It is split into Chavistas and anti-Chavistas, revolutionaries and `institutionalists' who reject all politics,'' said retired Vice Admiral Mario Iván Carratú.

Chávez said last week that he had information that civilian opponents were ''trying to urge on the military'' to stage another coup. ''For those who may think that Chávez has a wounded wing, they are wrong,'' he warned.

But his purges have only fueled the discontent within the armed forces, Ochoa and Carratú added, especially because Chávez has appointed some colonels to posts traditionally reserved for generals.

Gen. Guillermo Rangél, once regarded as a radical Chavista, sparked a standoff last week when he refused to turn over command of the 41st Armored Brigade to a colonel. Eventually, he turned it over to his immediate superior, who then turned it over to the colonel.

Chávez, who under his tailor-made 1999 constitution has the power to make all military assignments and promotions, appears to have tried to appoint loyalists to the newly vacant slots.

But loyalties are doubtful in today's divided Venezuelan military. Most of the senior officers that Chávez sent home after April 14 had been promoted to their ranks by the president himself since 1998, Carratú said.

But the greatest danger of a coup, all analysts said, comes not from unemployed generals but from mid-level officers known as Comacates, a Spanish acronym for Lieutenant Colonels, Majors, Captains and Lieutenants.

''A general sees the present. A colonel sees the day after tomorrow. But a lieutenant has to look down 30 years of career,'' Romero said. ``And while generals command big units, Comacates command real troops and tanks.''

A clandestine Comacate communiqué circulated last week in Caracas branded Chávez a ''traitor'' for his friendship with Fidel Castro and vowed: ``At the next failure of the government it will not be the generals going out. It will be we soldiers of the motherland.''

Chávez has dismissed that and other similar communiqués as fakes, but journalists who have talked to self-described Comacate leaders say they believe the declarations are the work of secret cells of officers opposed to Chávez.

A Comacate coup is likely to be more violent than April 11 because, instead of generals persuading Chávez to resign, it would involve small units such as infantry battalions trying to push him out, and possibly battling pro-Chávez units, Ochoa said.

Ironically, Chávez himself, while an army lieutenant colonel in 1992, led a failed coup attempt against President Carlos Andrés Pérez, in which no participant was above the rank of lieutenant colonel. He was jailed and later pardoned.

''There's going to be another coup here,'' predicted Henry Ramos, president of the opposition Democratic Action party, not by generals but by ``officers with command posts and troops.''

They include the commanders of all five infantry and tank battalions stationed in central Caracas, critical to any potential coup, plus 30 members of the secret police, known as DISIP.

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February 22, 2002 (pre-coup) - Chavez security chief alleges FARC links*** I am resigning because I disagree with the DISIP's policy of providing security to Colombian guerrillas ... this policy is more than just irregular, it approaches treason to Venezuela given the innumerable deaths, kidnappings and other crimes for which these groups are responsible in our country." Egui Bastidas said 90 percent of his fellow officers "obey orders but do not agree with them" and called on President Hugo Chavez to reverse his policy of tacit support for the rebels.

………. The official said he was also concerned at the growing role of Russian and Cuban security advisers in Venezuela. Egui Bastidas said he had experienced "the direct participation and the attempts at indoctrination by the Russian and Cuban intelligence services, who have direct and virtually unlimited access within the Helicoide (DISIP's headquarters building)."

The official's lawyer, former DISIP Secretary-General Joaquin Chaffardet, said around 100 members of the Cuban intelligence services are currently operating in Venezuela. *** [Many more Cuban advisors, teachers and sports trainers are currently working in Venezuela]

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What's really happening in Venezuela ***As Castro did in Cuba after 1959, the armed forces of Venezuela were reorganized by putting Chavez's cronies in charge of all important positions in the military. And as in Cuba, promotions became conditional on political beliefs. Cuban military advisers and intelligence operatives descended on Venezuela to help organize the repressive apparatus necessary to keep the new dictator in place.

The so-called "Cubanization" of Venezuela was well underway when, on June 10, 2001, Chavez, following Castro's example and guidelines, created paramilitary battalions to repress and intimidate his political adversaries. While in Cuba they are called "Rapid Response Brigades" Chavez called his "Bolivarian Circles." As the infamous Cuban "Committees for the Defense of the Revolution," Chavez created in Venezuela similar repressive organizations to spy on the citizenry in each neighborhood with branches in companies, hospitals, schools and universities. His excuse for the creation of these repressive organizations was "to defend the Bolivarian revolution against counterrevolution." Meanwhile, Chavez exported great quantities of oil to Cuba at subsidized prices in exchange for Castro's help with all of these efforts.

.......According to reports coming directly from Venezuela (not being reported by the U.S. network television), Chavez's paramilitary thugs have been well armed with expensive weapons. *They are intimidating the people on the streets, and forcing them to stay inside their houses. *Gunshots from automatic weapons have been heard in many neighborhoods. *Calls for police protection are not being answered. *There has been heavy looting by Chavez's thugs of the businesses that participated in the general strike. *Radio, TV stations and newspapers have been surrounded by Chavez's paramilitary thugs, reporters have been intimidated, and many remained hidden inside their offices. There is chaos and fear in Venezuela.

Among the many messages asking for international help and to publicize the nightmare that has befell that country since Chavez came back to power, there is the voice of a Venezuelan woman (for obvious reasons I will not disclose her name) that sent this desperate message via email on April 15, 2002, to the international community: "My country has been deceived. We need to ask for help more than ever from international organizations and beg them to come to Venezuela to see what is really going on. The reality is not as it appears.

"I worry about my country, the freedom of expression and its security. Don't let yourself be deceived. This man [Chavez] instructed by Fidel has been intelligent enough to manipulate the whole world." Are American television journalists going to support and show their solidarity with the Venezuelan journalists killed, the injured and those whose lives are in peril by Chavez's thugs? Somehow, I doubt it, based on their long record of protecting -- and covering-up for -- left-wing dictators, including Chavez, a protege of the American media's favorite dictator, Fidel Castro. So far, the U.S. television network media has only superficially reported the incidents in Venezuela, and usually in relation to the effect on the price of crude oil. This clearly shows their true lack of concern for the welfare of the people of that nation, one that is located in our own Americas.

Jim Guirard, Jr., former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Senators Allen Ellender and Russell Long, called me on April 12th and told me of a motto that he created and gave me permission to use. It clearly defines the reality of the struggle of the people from Venezuela: "Venezuela si, Cubazuela no!" So, I pass it on to you: "Venezuela si, Cubazuela no!" Is the U.S. media going to do justice for the people of Venezuela and report what is happening? ***

Chavez's citizens group, "political army," is fueling tensions***Perhaps more than any other action, the creation of the Bolivarian Circles has heightened the impression -- consistently denied by Chávez -- that he is building his own political army. As a result, the groups have become a critical point of confrontation between the president and his opponents.

Opponents now say they've had enough of the Bolivarian Circles and are demanding that the president disarm and disband them as the first step toward the reconciliation that he promised following the April 11 coup attempt. The debate over the fate of these groups might go a long way toward resolving -- or deepening -- the political crisis engulfing Chávez. ***

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

I think these articles / editorials are germain to this thread, so I will post them here instead of starting another. They are from VON.

AD issues new coup warning

Leaders of the center-left Democratic Action (AD), the country’s largest opposition party, have warned that another military uprising was on the horizon.

"There is going to be another coup here," said AD President Henry Ramos Allup, adding that the forthcoming military rebellion would be ld by middle rank officers that control command posts and troops.

Ramos Allup said that leaders of the putsch won’t make the same mistake as Pedro Carmona, the prominent business leader who led the short-lived interim government that was sworn in April 12.

An unpopular decree drafted by Carmona eliminating all democratic institution so infuriated the military that he was removed just 24 hours after he was sworn in.

"They are not going to arrive like Carmona , wasting time with an uncertain decree. They have had this ready for a long time, prepared by law experts," said Ramos Allup.

Coup leaders would put civilian leaders at the head of an interim government rather than establishing a military junta and would immediately call for new elections, said Ramos Allup. He refused to go into details.

Many political analysts and retired army officers agree that another uprising is possible, or even likely, because Chávez has launched a massive purge of the armed forces trying to eliminate all those officers that oppose his leftist authoritarian regime.

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OPINION: The end-game

By Tony Bianchi

In chess a skilful end-game is crucial. No matter the advantage that a player may have over the other, if the end-game is not well executed it can prove fatal or simply end in a stalemate.

This also applies to politics. Take for example the lucky Hugo Chávez, he has already taken advantage of his opponents because of two bad end games.

If you don’t believe me, ask former President Rafael Caldera, who is suffering from a permanent hangover caused by the unforgivable pardon he granted Chávez.

Or ask Pedro Carmona and General Efraín Vásquez Velasco. Wasn’t that about the worst end game one ever witnessed?

Just the same, in less than a month since his return to power Chávez looks weaker than ever, the opposition is on a roll and he is ready to face a third end game.

To start with, he has erased his temporary advantage by jumping back on his high horse charging again in the name of the "revolution." Then he went in a short-lived remorse mode pretending he was implementing a rectification that borders the ridiculous.

It was equivalent to him saying: "Say fellows, come over and let’s dialogue so I can tell you what I don’t want you to do," all this while devising ways to strengthen the infamous Bolivarian Circles.

Boomerang

Even more compromising is the testimony given by several generals and key coup figures in the ongoing National Assembly inquiry of the April 11-14 events.

What started off as an apparent congressional farce orchestrated by Chávez’s devious point men in the Assembly to ostracize those who did not rally to his rescue while being temporarily deposed, boomeranged.

With at least three or four more important "witnesses" still to appear, the president is in trouble, Vice-President José Vicente Rangel is in trouble, Defense Minister Gen. Lucas Rincón is in trouble, Attorney General Isaías Rodríguez is in trouble and the Fifth Republic looks like a house of cards.

The charges made against the presidential team are serious. We are talking about, disregarding the Constitution and military rules, endangering lives of people, sending people to their deaths and leading the country into a civil war.

In any other civilized and truly democratic country Chávez would have fallen hard a long time ago, facing a trial and a possibly a long prison term.

In today’s "revolutionary" Venezuela this is hardly the case because Chávez was allowed to grab too much power, that, one must admit, he skillfully managed to secure.

Showdown

Another showdown is near. Chávez is battling on the military and the political fronts. On the military front he is desperately trying to purge the already purged armed forces where over 60 generals that have not bowed to the comandante’s wishes have been sidelined, most of them sitting at home with nothing to do.

The ground they are standing on is shaking under the effect of the National Assembly explosions, while all this time they are being looked down upon by an important number of low and middle-ranked officers.

The word is that even Chávez’s military pals of his graduating class have told him straight out that he has gone too far.

Will the military respond with a more careful and sensitive end-game or will they allow the more adventuresome to indulge in a crazy scheme?

In the political front, even the respected, moderate former political advisor of the president, veteran deputy Alejandro Armas, is rebelling, marching in the streets with the opposition to protest.

He and former Chávez mentor and right-hand man Luis Miquilena are siding with twelve other political parties, the workers, and, yes, the private sector again, seeking a way out of the Bolivarian quagmire.

Will they remain united and come through with a smart, viable plan and take advantage of the fact that the government is also facing an economic debacle, or will they spoil it all by trying to outsmart each other to grab the thickest slice of the power pie that is in the oven?

Show me a good end-game and I will show you who is worthy to lead a Sixth Republic.

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Economic woes add more instability

University students of the prestigious Simón Bolívar university (USB) and the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB) held separate demonstrations in Caracas Wednesday adding their protests to those of professors, oil drillers, civil servants and pensioners, all demanding overdue government funds.

The financially strapped administration of leftist President Hugo Chávez owes USB alone over $31 million and is having a hard time meeting its obligation in the face of an $8 billion fiscal deficit.

The crisis is mainly due to low oil prices early this year, billions in capital flight and a political unrest that exploded into a three-day coup last month.

University professors are into their ninth day of strike and both UCAB and the Central University of Venezuela (UCV) the largest of the nation, said it would close down by the end of the month if it does not receive government funds.

Following his short removal, Chávez tried to win over the 1-million strong Confederation of Worker Unions (CTV) by announcing a 20 percent wage increase starting May 1 but unions have denounced that no such increase showed up in mid- May paychecks.

"The government is doing exactly what anybody without money would do. Fail to pay," National Assembly financial advisor Francisco Rodríguez said.

Recently appointed Finance Minister Tobía Nóbrega has promised to reduce the budget to $24.4 billion, a $2 billion cut, but the measure may not ease criticism and pressure on the government in the short run.

Chávez is not making life easy on himself either. During the weekend he promised to strengthen the costly maintenance of his Bolivarian Circles militia and further irritated many Venezuelans by flying off to Spain for a European-Latin American summit on his $70 million new presidential jet.

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My comments: What the last article does not state is that the Venuzuealan government is expected to run a deficit of US$7-8 billion. On top of that, they owe PDVSA US$4 billion that they cannot pay, so the oil company is going to have to go out and seek loans to cover the amount. US$4 billion. That is a tremendous strain on the business that shouldn't be there at all. Talk about vanishing capital. On top of that, the government can't pay other obligations to ordinary citizens. After witnessing the rhetoric and actions of the Chávez, who will want to give them credit? They are headed for an economic meltdown, and Chávez is too inept to see that he has caused it much less orchestrate a turn-around.

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