Neither the presence of his DNA on/near her, NOR the presence of the Watch on or near her, will really prove anything against him.
What terrified him about the Watch must have been, NOT that it was on the body or near it, BUT that HE DIDN'T KNOW WHERE IT WAS, it had come off, gone awol, lost in the fracas, and probably at some site that was his or related to him, where its finding would be highly incriminating to him, probably the place of the killing.
Mirzayan was killed in August.
Good point, but Condit could have been hoping to keep the lid on the affair. Obviously, it was something she had. BTW, if the watch was not on the body ... then she may have been killed elsewhere.