Posted on 05/30/2002 10:53:19 AM PDT by swarthyguy
You have to admire the Pakistanis. Each time the Indians get ready to bash them for sending terrorists into Indian Kashmir, the Pakistanis move the same old missiles around in circles, threatening nuclear war. The world rushes in to restrain - India! In its turn, India whines the Americans aren't doing enough to control Pakistan, as if its America's problem and not India's. The US assures India it understands, but President Musharraf needs more time to deal with domestic opposition.
Then Washington tells Pakistan "Oh Behave!". President Musharraf says no terrorists will cross into Indian Kashmir, and he'd love to America kill the Al Qaida/Taliban. But you see, he says sorrowfully, I've had to move all my troops to the East because India is threatening me. So Washington starts turning the screws on India. No matter that when the US wants to go after Al Qaida who are now treating Pakistan's Tribal Zone as their Grand Hotel, Islamabad says - also sorrowfully - we cannot alienate the tribals too much, and in any case, there are no Al Qaida here such as you say. Your intelligence says they are? Tut tut old boy, your intelligence is worthless. Also, no matter that President Musharraf is concerned, the men crossing into Kashmir are freedom fighters and not terrorists, so as far as he is concerned he is true to his word.
Today lets discuss the alleged shortage of troops to police the Afghan-Pakistan border because the threat of war in the East is diverting Pakistani resources.
The Pakistan Army has close on 625,000 troops and 120,000 or so well trained paramilitary troops. Troops from Peshawar, the corps HQ most concerned with stopping infiltration, can be in the east within 24-48 hours. Pakistan can indeed spare troops for the west, and even wait till war actually starts before moving them.
There are complications. Regular Pakistan Army troops do not, as a rule, enter the tribal zone except if their peacetime bases happen to be located in tribal territory. Even then, they do not watch the border. The border is the responsibility of the Frontier Corps. They know every kilometer of the border. The regulars that have been sent there do not. The regulars are good as backups should fighting erupt, but when it comes to heaving to up and down hills, talking to locals, reading trails, checking out streams, the Frontier Corps are the people to do the needful. Now, the Frontier Corps battalions have secondary roles in the event of an all-out war with India, but they can certainly stay in the west till the actual outbreak of war, backed by a couple of regular brigades.
Not so, some will say. The above argument is fallacious because the Frontier Corps troops are hand-in-glove with the locals, if only because they themselves are locals. They will not be helpful to anyone, even their own government, in the matter of Al Qaida and the Taliban.
The above refutation indeed has serious merit. Except for one thing. Its true the regular army's rank and file may have few ethnic or kinship ties to the tribal zone. Most troops, despite the names of regiments like the Baloch (Baluch) Regiment and the Frontier Force are Punjabis. This, however, means nothing. The Inter Services Intelligence officers does have a cadre of regulars, but a large number of its officers are deputed from the regular army, returning to their units when their posting is over. Being ISI is just another job in the promotion ladder. The ISI does not want the Taliban touched, and probably does not want most of Al Qaida touched. Its unlikely the regular army battalions will be much more willing than the Frontier Corps to take on the job of betraying their close friends..
There is a further complication. The Frontier Corps may have a better ability to police the frontier than the Pakistan Army, but it's not clear what that capability is. It's unlikely much policing has been done since the Corps was formed over a century ago. To the people in the region, the Durrand Line is an artificial border. This was never a border as most of understand the term, and it has not been policed as one. Particularly so after 1990, when Pakistan developed its strategy of integrating Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Frontier Corps is used to man isolated checkpoints and watchpoints, not to trek for hours each blistering day up and down mountains. It keeps a kind of overall peace in the frontier regions; infiltration has never been any kind of priority in a region where people come and go as they like between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Consider. India has a 650 km border with Pakistan in the Jammu and Kashmir region. We ignore Ladakh, since no meaningful infiltration takes place there. India has approximately 100,000 troops including paramilitary, watching the border. Your editor has seen reports that in peak infiltration season, up to a thousand Indian patrols are out each night looking for terrorists. The results we know: the terrorists continue to infiltrate and exfiltrate, despite every Indian attenpt to stop them. The Pakistan-Afghan border is twice as long, and the Pakistanis have no interest in stopping men wanted by America. Logically, even 200,000 men will not suffice.
So: regardless of what's happening with India, Pakistan cannot, and will not stop transborder movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
What's America to do? Well, your editor has his own problems, so the Americans had best figure this out for themselves. Meanwhile, it's as well to remember one thing. A brigade has perhaps 250 officers and senior NCOs. It takes just one or two sympathetic to the Al Qaida/Taliban to blow a search operation. Don't anyone in Washington hold their breath waiting for the Pakistanis to do the job. This does not mean they are evil or liars. It just means helping America hurts a big part of their regional interests.
One thing it does point out, perhaps unintentionally, is how demands from any country that it seal the borders is logistically impossible. We can't do it in Southern California, and it sure as heck isn't going to happen in Pakistan or Kashmir.
Perhaps if something like the Berlin Wall were constructed along entire borders like the Great Wall of China there would be some hope, but for long and remote borders to be patrolled by a few thousand soldiers is ridiculous. It's a gesture, and nothing more.
Kashmir is different. There the pakistani army is actively supplying the terrorists with arms and covering fire in order to facilitate their attacks on india.
I have to give Musharraf credit for thoroughly yanking America's chain with his so-called cooperation. The same jihadis attacking American soldiers are now killing indians.
But even if it does, or already has (as Musharraf claims), I question whether it would prevent infiltrators from crossing. As I understand it, the LoC isn't really a border but is more of an unofficial ceasefire line that the armies withdraw from during the winter and return to in the summer. It's virtually unmanned for weeks on end.
Maybe it's time to see if "good fences make good neighbors." Lay down some razor wire, create a DMZ, and bring in some international observers.
It wouldn't hurt in reducing the number of jihadis. The LoC was the ceasefire line from 48, with a few changes due to war since then. If Pakistan had agreed, India may well have acquiesced to formalising it as an international border, effectively partitioning kashmir. But pakistani instransigence and subsequent use of kashmir as a jihadi motivating tool and more importantly, as a rallying cry for pakistani 'unity' and national purpose have precluded that option.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.