Posted on 06/02/2002 10:06:04 AM PDT by AM2000
ON BOARD AIR INDIA 1: The war clouds have receded, albeit temporarily, with highly placed officials in the Prime Minister’s Office seeking a "commitment" for a permanent stoppage of infiltration and terrorist violence in Jammu & Kashmir from Pakistan President Musharraf.
"There won’t be any knee-jerk reaction, we will wait watch," said a senior official. According to the highly placed official, certain wireless intercepts of communication between terrorists suggest that there has been an "order" from the Pakistan side to stop infiltration.
On the way to Almaty in Kazhakhstan to attend a summit where Musharraf is also expected, Prime Minister Vajpayee told reporters on board his aircraft that there were no plans to meet Musharraf.
Yet, in a statement at Delhi before his departure, the PM had said, ‘‘If we see the result on the ground of General Musharraf’s statements, we shall certainly give it our serious consideration.’’ When asked about a possible handshake between the two, the PM laughed it away.
The senior official echoed this sentiment, when he said, ‘‘The government would be keenly waiting and watching the ground situation to see whether Pakistan has made a commitment.’’ The most important indicator of the lowering of temperatures in the subcontinent was that the government is ready to weigh isolated attacks made by desperate terrorists and the sincere efforts of the Pakistan government.
That is, even if a Kaluchak-like incident occurs in the near future, the government will be ready to weigh it against the level of infiltration and Pak-sponsored terrorist activities in the Valley. This change in attitude has occurred due to the growing understanding that militant groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Taiba are no longer under Musharraf’s control.
The emphasis on a ‘‘permanent commitment’’, was underlined by the official when he said that there is a real threat of terrorist violence stopping for now and then resuming during the rains. ‘‘That is the import of Colin Powell’s statement too. They might perceive that a war cannot be fought during the rains and hence might resume their activities during the monsoon,’’ said the official.
Unfortunately, there may be more than two sides in this equation. I firmly believe that Bin Laden's Al Quaida is exploiting and even trying to ignite war between India and Pakistan, to achieve his broader goal of a world wide war between all of Islam and the West. India is seen as an ally of the US and Russia in this case, and if India destroys Islamabad or Karachi with nukes, Bin Laden envisions the worldwide radicalization of Islamic peoples, their uprising and Jihad against Islam's enemies (the US and the West) he has so long planned for. Don't think in terms of self interest and sanity in Bin Laden's case. He sees his messianic duty as igniting a world war against the infidels, and he will try and do it here.
That's the most encouraging statement I've seen come out of the Indian press in months.
There needs to be zero tolerance for state-sponsored terrorism, with the understanding that not all terrorism is state-sponsored.
It's not always easy to tell the difference, and that's the challenge.
That is, even if a Kaluchak-like incident occurs in the near future, the government will be ready to weigh it against the level of infiltration and Pak-sponsored terrorist activities in the Valley. This change in attitude has occurred due to the growing understanding that militant groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Taiba are no longer under Musharraf’s control.
The above text would seem to indicate that there is a certain level of awareness in the Indian administration that other forces (bin Laden) are at play in Kashmir. This is a major change of declared doctrine - so far, the Indians have said they will hold the Pakistani military responsible for any further attacks. Now they seem to be admitting that it isn't so, and that's progress. It shows that the Indians aren't being suckered into a fight (yet) and that bodes well for those of us fighting al Qaeda. Maybe al Qaeda won't get their Islamic war out of the Kashmir situation, after all. They didn't get it out of the WTC attacks either. I wonder where they'll turn next.
I agree. Things are starting to look hopeful.
There needs to be zero tolerance for state-sponsored terrorism, with the understanding that not all terrorism is state-sponsored.
There needs to be zero tolerance for all terrorism, but state sponsored terrorism has to be dealt with differently than terrorism that's not sponsored by a state.
That would certainly be what I'd expect of him, based on his past deceptions and betrayals.
However, if Musharraf can lessen infilitration, even temporarily, that will alter the balance of power in the Kashmir valley, and give Indian security forces the opportunity they need to wipe out terrorists in the Valley. Once Indian security forces regain the upper hand, it will be difficult for the terrorists to get it back.
India has very small window of opportunity to destroy this nuclear potential of pakistan - currently they do not have a delivery system to reach half of India. two year later - they will - and then nuclear terrorism and blackmail is a reality. India has a lot to lose - robust economy , hopeful people and stable democracy. pakistan is already a failed state so it might not mind commiting suicide then.
That could be true, or a coup could come out of the military ranks.
But Musharraf can't realistically disband either entity. The ISI is equivalent to our CIA and FBI. So, he has to purge it, not eliminate it.
India may have begun to thwart the terorism aimed against it for the time being, but the fact remains that Al Qaida are grouped in Pakistan and we're not able to reach them. The US still remains a target. Does it take another threat as severe as nuclear annihilation to get the Paks to cooperate?
But the Indian government doesn't think that way.
Not if the US does it.
... This change in attitude has occurred due to the growing understanding that militant groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Taiba are no longer under Musharraf?s control ...No longer under Musharraf's control?
I also believe they got a "green light" that the US would no longer ensure the security of Pakistan.
Remember the prez said we'd see some things and not others.
India has moved UP a notch or two in our strategic equation. Three nations have become natural allies......India, Israel and the US........and perhaps we'll have the Russians fully onboard soon.
The UN and the EU become increasingly irrelevent in this new worldwide strategic equation.
There's a master at the helm of geo-political strategy in this administration. Is it Condi? Rumsfeld? Powell? Cheney? Bush!?!?
My bets on Rumsfeld and/or Cheney. One of them should be President, too - not Bush.
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