Detailed Consequences of an Indo-Pak Nuclear Exchange

Various, incl. FAS, Jane's, RAND, Expats blog | June 6, 2002 | Joe Katzman

[katman]

For obvious reasons, the duynamics of a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India are on many people's minds. What would happen? What would it mean? This answer brings together a lot of new materials, including a picture of likely radioactive fallout patterns, technical basics for atomic weapon terms, a report from Jane's re: each country's nuclear arsenals, and more.

All available here at Winds of Change, naturally!

[anniegetyourgun]

Welcome to FR.

[RightWhale]

TNT yield equivalent is no longer the measure. "...it was redefined (by the DoE I think) to be exactly 10^12 (one trillion) calories or 4.18 x 10^12 Joules

That's interesting for the engineers among us. Now we can do actual international standard calculations instead of guessing how high the stump flew when we dynamited it.

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

Put me on record as saying that another Indo-Pakistani war will not be a good thing- however, from India's perspective, it seems that a pre-emptive strike very soon at Pakistan and it's nuclear weapons (and missiles) is very close to a necessity. Ten years from now will see these two countries no friendlier, but Pakistan will have enough missiles and warheads to devastate all of India- and who knows what group will be in charge of them then???

I believe that it is only the presence of American troops in Pakistan that is preventing such a strike today.

[dd5339]

Bump for later study...

[vannrox]

[brooklin]

I don't see a problem with the fallout pattern.

[BullDog108]

index bump

[Pylot]

I don't think either country every intended to nuke the other.

Arafat told Mushareff that the US would pay big bucks but that he had to threaten the act first.

So far, we have not. When it diffuses, we will have.

If Pakistan were to nuke India there would be the largest mass murder of Muslims ever recorded. There are over 200 million muslims in India. Pakistan was created, essentially by Ghandi, to get them out of India.

Look for this to continue to simmer until we pay Pakistan somthing.

[backhoe]

Welcome... FYI, I will cross-link to this:

The India-Pakistani Conflict... some background information-

[KissOfTheSith]

>I don't see a problem with the fallout pattern.

The devil's in the details. I just know that when the inevitable giant ants grow from the nuclear fall out, the first generation of winged females will fly right to my garage...

-- KotS

[griffin]

Man, that snickers bar I just chowed was 3e-7 kT! No wonder my gut is blowin' up!!

[McGruff]

They must have never seen the movie THEM!

[boris]

"For obvious reasons, the duynamics of a nuclear exchange"

A new science is born--live at FR!

[El Gato]

I don't see a problem with the fallout pattern.

Not a large enough stream heading towards China perhaps?

[BullDog108]

I never said that. You must have meant that comment for brooklin.

[DBtoo]

Thanks for the very informative links!

[backhoe]

Thank you for looking, and I hope you will pass some of that info on to others, especially this one:

Nuclear, Biological, & Chemical Warfare- Survival Skills, Pt. II

[conqueror]

India should make it very public and clear that India will aim the last 3 nukes at Mecca, Medina and (sp) Rahyad.

[katman]

If you read closely, you'll note that most of India's nukes are delivered by aircraft. They do not have ICBMs. Which means that even if they wanted to do this (and with over 200M Muslims in India, that would be a bad idea), they don't have the ability to do it.