Taking Back the Senate

PollingReports.com | 6/21/02 | Bryan

[Bryan]

Following are the most recent polling results available for each of the US Senate races in November. I have a trial membership at PollingReports.com and thought I'd share these results. Notice that some of the polls are quite old. Incumbents are marked by an asterisk (*). I'll give you an update in a couple of weeks.

Alabama (Feb. 4-7): Sessions* (R) 55%, Parker (D) 22%

Arkansas (May 13-14): Hutchinson* (R) 51%, Pryor (D) 43%

Colorado (April 16-28): Allard* (R) 43%, Strickland (D) 31%

Georgia (Feb. 19-23): Cleland* (D) 54%, Chambliss (R) 30%

Illinois (April 25-29): Durbin* (D) 49%, Durkin (R) 32%

Iowa (May 28-29): Harkin* (D) 53%, Ganske (R) 38%

Kentucky (March 1-2): McConnell* (R) 51%, Weinberg (D) 24%

Louisiana (May 3-11): Landrieu* (D) 62%, Cooksey (R) 25%

Maine (May 10-15): Collins* (R) 53%, Pingree (D) 21%

Michigan (March 18-21): Levin* (D) 53%, Raczkowski (R) 27%

Minnesota (April 10-11): Wellstone* (D) 42%, Coleman (R) 40%

Missouri (April 20-24): Carnahan* (D) 50%, Talent (R) 44%

Montana (April 19-21): Baucus* (D) 57%, Taylor (R) 24%

New Hampshire (June 14-18): Sununu (R) 37%, Shaheen (D) 33%. Currently held by a Republican defeated in the primaries.

New Jersey (June 11-17): Torricelli* (D) 44%, Forrester (R) 36%

North Carolina (March 24-27): Dole (R) 62%, Bowles (D) 27%. Incumbent is Jesse Helms (R), retiring.

Oklahoma (Dec. 18-29): Inhofe* (R) 44%, Walters (D) 36%

Oregon (May 4-9): Smith* (R) 49%, Bradbury (D) 33%

Rhode Island (Jan. 26-28): None available. Incumbent is Jack Reed (D).

South Carolina (Feb. 2-6): Graham (R) 51%, Sanders (D) 26%. Incumbent is Strom Thurmond (R), retiring.

South Dakota (Apr. 22 - May 2): Thune (R) 46%, Johnson* (D) 42%

Tennessee (Apr. 21-23): None available. Incumbent is Fred Thompson (R), retiring.

Texas (Mar. 24-27): Kirk (R) 43%, Cornyn (D) 41%. Currently held by a Republican (Phil Gramm, retiring).

Virginia (June 3-5) None available. Incumbent John Warner (R).

THERE IS CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM AMONG REPUBLICANS.

Notice that the only incumbent who's behind is Tim Johnson of South Dakota. His voting record is virtually identical to that of his fellow South Dakota Democrat, Tom Daschle, who has mentioned retirement and a run for the White House among his options for 2004.

Democrats Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Jean Carnahan of Missouri are ahead, but the lead for each of them is within the poll's margin of error. They are in serious trouble, particularly since the GOP has been raising bundles of cash for campaign advertising. And in New Jersey, Torricelli looks vulnerable as well.

Democrat Tom Harkin looks like he has a comfortable lead. Don't be fooled.

On the Republican side, there are several seats that were held by retiring Senators and all of them appear to be safely passed to younger Republicans, except one. John Sununu of New Hampshire may have some trouble.

Kirk appeared earlier in the year to be having some trouble holding Phil Gramm's seat in Texas, but now he seems to be pulling away from Cornyn. Hutchinson in Arkansas also seems to have put his springtime troubles behind him.

SUMMARY: Johnson will lose. Out of four other Democrats who are in some trouble (Carnahan, Wellstone, Harkin, Torricelli), I predict that two will lose -- probably Carnahan and Wellstone.

Out of three Republicans who are in trouble (Sununu, Kirk, Hutchinson), I predict that one -- probably John Sununu -- will lose. Net gain will be two seats.

The House is still a messy picture since there are some redistricting battles to hash out in the courts. But if I had to estimate how many seats we'll pick up, I'd say 16. The most high-profile losers will probably be Cynthia McKinney of Georgia (in the primaries this August) and, believe it or not, Dick Gephardt (who will be shafted by redistricting).

[Bryan]

Volley flag ... FIRE! ... CEASE FIRE! Chambers open, weapons down!

If you'd like to donate to the Free Republic Legal Defense fund, please click here. (Or at least help keep the thread bumped.)

bigotry \Big"ot*ry\, n. [Cf. F. bigoterie.] 1. The state of mind of a bigot; obstinate and unreasoning attachment of one's own belief and opinions, with narrow-minded intolerance of beliefs opposed to them.

I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
It smells like victory.

Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum.

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

Bryan - this is fantastic! Thank you! But wishing and hoping won't get these people elected and as good as your predictions look - PLEASE NOBODY SHOULD ASSUME THEM TO BE TRUE! We know the Rats are already scurrying about - and we all had better be involved in one or more candidates fight to take back the Senate! ALL of us!

[Torie]

Gephardt was not shafted by redistricting (his district was made more Dem), and he will win easily. Your 16 gain for the GOP in the House is a number that is way high in my opinion. I think it will be closer to 3 seats. Your senate predictions I think are more on the mark. Torrecelli, Wellstone, and Johnson are in deep trouble I think. In the end, I don't think any GOP seats will be lost if I had to guess.

[PianoMan]

Dick Gephardt (who will be shafted by redistricting).

You'd better have some facts on your side to get my hopes up like that, pal... :)

[PianoMan]

Gephardt was not shafted by redistricting (his district was made more Dem),

Certainly it would be in the interest of Iowa Repubs to do this. Gephardt is by far the most prominent figure in Iowa, so pack the Dems in his district since he'll almost certainly win, enabling swing districts to become more GOP. Your analysis sounds more likely than the above.

[Bryan]

The last I heard regarding Gephardt, he was losing some of his Democratic neighborhoods and gaining some Republicans from the suburbs. The good news about redistricting is that a lot of state legislatures passed from Democrat control to Republican in the past ten years, through elections and through party switches -- a total of over 430 Democrats switched to the Republican Party since 1992. (Thanks to Alamo-Girl for keeping track!)

http://www.alamo-girl.com

By comparison, there have been about three switching from the Republican Party to the Democrats -- and one of them, a three-term House incumbent from Long Island with millions in his campaign fund, was beaten in the Democratic primary by a retired librarian who spent about $70,000. (It was hilarious.) And then, of course, there was Jim Jeffords. He claims to be independent but voted for Daschle for Majority Leader, and caucuses with the Democrats.

[Torie]

Gephardt represents some of St. Louis (including some more appended black precincts to help him), and suburban Jefferson County. St. Louis is in Missouri I think.

[MJY1288]

Thanks for the ping, It will be sure nice to see Daschle dethrowned from his illegitimate seat. Things would certainly a lot different if it wasn't for Daschle's backroom bribery

[PA Engineer]

Thanks for the bump.

[Torie]

Actually Gephardt gained some black precincts in St. Louis, and shed some GOP suburban precincts. You can review the stats here. Gore won his old district by about 4%, and his new one by 10%.

[Dan from Michigan]

If that's an EPIC/MRA(aka democrap poll), on Carl Lenin at 53%, then we may have a shot, especially since most people don't know who Rocky is(Raczkowski).

That COULD be a sleeper race, especially since Carl Lenin is wrong on all the issues and doesn't even live in Michigan.

If Rocky can get his name out, I think he can do it. It's tough, and I wouldn't put money on this race, but he's the best GOP Candidate against Lenin since 84.

[McGavin999]

I agree with most of what you said on the senate, but I think Sununu might pull it off.

What's this thing with Gephardt? I haven't heard anything about that before.

[TC Rider]

North Carolina (March 24-27): Dole (R) 62%, Bowles (D) 27%. Incumbent is Jesse Helms (R), retiring.

Should this race be considered a 'replay' of Clinton/Dole in '96? After all, we've got Liddy versus a Clinton hack, who has yet to admit he ever worked for Bill.

heh heh

(Don't go off on Liddy either, I know she's a RINO and I'm not with her on some issues, but she's a nice lady. She might end up more like KBH of Texas and less like the two in Maine. I doubt she'll end up like McCain/Jeffords. Plus, I remember what it was like when very conservative Loch Faircloth forgot to campaign and we got Edwards. Besides, Jesse endorsed her.)

[Torie]

Gephardt's district is the 3rd CD in Missouri by the way.

[Bommer]

Texas (Mar. 24-27): Kirk (R) 43%, Cornyn (D) 41%. Currently held by a Republican (Phil Gramm, retiring).

Kirk is the Democrap and Cornyn the Republicant.

[Bryan]

I'm not arguing, it's just that it's pretty hard to keep track of everything. In April 2001, on the way back from helping Clarity out in Los Angeles with the appellate brief on LAT/WP vs. FR, I had a layover in St. Louis for a few hours and I picked up the Post-Dispatch. There, on the front page and extending inside for a couple of pages, was a huge write-up about how much trouble Gephardt was in due to the redistricting plan drawn up by the GOP guys who control the Missouri state legislature.

I posted a thread about it, but I didn't bookmark it and now I can't find it. He was losing some St. Louis Democrats to his neighbor Clay, and gaining suburban Republicans. He won by about 4-5% in 2000, so I figured he was cooked. But now that you mention it, I do recall that redistricting plan getting thrown out by the courts. Oh well. There's a lot of time left -- four-and-a-half months.

If you're living in Missouri, I'm sure you're more on top of that story than I am. My eyes are definitely on the Senate, especially the Judiciary Committee.

[Bryan]

Kirk is the Democrap and Cornyn the Republicant.

Oops! I think you're right ...

[PianoMan]

Gephardt represents some of St. Louis

Oops. Looks like it's time for PianoMan to do more lurking and less posting. :)

[Torie]

No, the GOP and the Dems cut a deal. Gephardt was made safe, and the two marginal GOP incumbents were made safer. One of the Dem seats is held by a rather conservative Dem (Skelton) that will go GOP when he retires. The Dems ended up with 3 safe seats, and the GOP with the balance of the seats (six including over the longer term the Skelton seat) as either safe or more leaning in their direction that before. All this is part of the trend to get rid of swing districts.