Reno thinks numbers can work in her favor

Orlando Sentinel ^ | June 24, 2002 | John Kennedy | Tallahassee Bureau Chief

[Cincinatus' Wife]

TALLAHASSEE -- Campaigning in sweltering North Florida, Democrat Janet Reno told the crowd that the key to her victory over Gov. Jeb Bush rests on pulling Floridians to the polls in numbers rivaling those of a presidential contest.

Her remarks showed how the front-running Democrat is looking past her opponents in the September primary and plotting strategy for the November election.

But many political experts call her script for victory pure fantasy, especially with surveys of voters showing her already losing more than a quarter of the Democratic vote to the Republican governor.

"Can she draw those kind of numbers? Sure, it's possible, but I'm not saying it's likely," said David Niven, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.

"People have to perceive that the outcome of a race is in doubt in order to turn out in that kind of force. So far, you don't have that in the Florida governor's race," he added.

Before spending most of last week fund raising in New York and Chicago, Reno campaigned across North Florida -- from down-home Marianna in the Panhandle to posh Ponte Vedra Beach on the Atlantic coast.

Reno's message is upbeat

Her message was the same.

"We can do this. We can beat Jeb Bush in November," Reno told 40 Democratic loyalists gathered at the Blountstown Community Center. "Don't let anyone tell you otherwise."

Reno then explained the mathematical theory behind her strategy. It goes like this:

In 1994, Bush lost to Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles in the closest governor's race in Florida history -- drawing just under 2.1 million votes, while Chiles barely cleared that mark.

Four years later, Bush didn't draw much more. He attracted slightly under 2.2 million votes but easily defeated Democrat Buddy MacKay.

The difference? MacKay's lackluster candidacy inspired only 1.7 million Floridians to vote for him. In her stump speech, Reno then fast-forwards to the disputed 2000 presidential contest.

In that race, Democrat Al Gore generated phenomenal interest -- winning the votes of 2.9 million Floridians even as he lost the state to Gov. Jeb Bush's brother, George W. Bush, by 537 votes.

Those numbers are what Reno is hoping to replicate. And in North Florida, even though Democrats often vote Republican, she is working hard to get out the vote.

"We have to get a presidential turnout in a nonpresidential year," Reno told the Blountstown crowd. "Jeb can be beaten if we get out the Democratic vote."

But there is skepticism.

"I think she's better than Jeb Bush," said Charles Grantham, 70, a rancher and member of the Calhoun County Democratic Executive Committee.

"But I don't know if she's going to be able to gin-up enough interest among Democrats wanting to knock him out. A lot of people around here think he's OK -- even Democrats."

State elections officials don't break down voter turnout by party. But overall statistics provide a glimpse of the mountain Reno must climb if she wins the Democratic nomination Sept. 10 over rivals Bill McBride and Daryl Jones.

She's not only running against Jeb Bush. Reno is up against history by looking to attract a presidential-like turnout in a governor's race.

No candidate in Florida has ever come close.

Without a doubt, Floridians show up for a presidential election. In 2000's feverishly contested race for the White House, 70 percent of Floridians cast ballots for either Gore or Bush. But even that lofty mark has been eclipsed, such as the record 83 percent turnout when Democrat Bill Clinton faced the senior President Bush in 1992.

Governor's races, however, historically are a much tougher draw.

The biggest turnout of any Florida governor's race in the past 36 years was the Chiles-Bush contest in 1994, when 66 percent of state voters cast ballots.

But on average over those years, Florida governors' races have drawn only 58 percent of voters to the polls, records show. Until 1964, the state's governor's race coincided with the presidential contest, making turnout higher in those earlier years.

Proposals drove up turnout

Even the Chiles-Bush election figures may be inflated, experts say. That contest shared a ballot with controversial proposals -- one that would have allowed casino gambling in Florida and another that banned commercial fishing nets.

This time, a constitutional amendment requiring lower public-school class size may be on the November ballot -- but it is considered unlikely by many analysts to drive the unprecedented numbers to the polls that Reno is banking on.

"That 1994 race was really quite remarkable," said Richard Scher, a political scientist at the University of Florida. "You're not going to see anything near that kind of turnout this time."

To reach the ambitious vote totals she's eyeing, Reno also must recapture thousands of Democratic defectors. An Orlando Sentinel poll earlier this month showed that Reno not only trails Bush by 22 percent among all voters, she would lose 29 percent of likely Democratic voters to Bush if the election had been held then.

"It must be a sobering thought for the Democrats to know that for every 100 Democrats that go to the polls, about 30 of them will vote for Gov. Bush," said Todd Harris, a Bush campaign spokesman.

Reno's campaign acknowledges it faces a difficult task. But spokeswoman Nicole Harburger insists the candidate's math can work.

"Janet is a unique candidate, and there is enormous excitement about her candidacy as she campaigns, even during these summer days when it's hard to get people out," Harburger said. "We think she will inspire turnout that's never been seen before."

Black voters could be key

Bush, the Reno campaign insists, cannot expect to top the vote levels he achieved in his two previous elections. And after making modest gains among blacks in his 1998 election, Bush is likely to lose almost the entire black vote to the Democratic nominee, analysts say.

Minority opposition remains intense toward Bush's One Florida plan that abolished affirmative action in state hiring, university admissions and contracting. Bitterness stemming from the 2000 presidential election also may drive black turnout.

While more than 600,000 black voters cast ballots in the presidential contest, only 344,000 voted in the 1998 governor's race. Blacks may prove an untapped reserve of Democratic voting strength for Reno in this fall's governor's race.

"All told, she's wasting her time in North Florida," Scher said. "There's not enough voters there, and most vote Republican. Black voters, though, may be the only pool large enough that, if mobilized, could damage Jeb Bush. Her plan, though, has a long way to go."

John Kennedy can be reached at jkennedy@orlandosentinel.com or 850-222-5564.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Miami Herald (June 24, 2002) Gov. Bush's popularity stumps Democrats***…..Former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno, the Democratic front-runner, whose candidacy had promised to further excite the party faithful, has remained mired about 20 points behind the governor in polls. She continues to combat high negative ratings from her controversial record in Washington.

McBride, whose upstart candidacy appeared to gain momentum earlier in the year when he secured key endorsements from organized labor, has shown some improvement but still lags staggeringly far behind Reno. And despite arguing that he would pose a greater threat to the governor than Reno, he has yet to prove it with polling numbers.

The governor, meanwhile, has marched through a political landscape rich with potential land mines -- a state budget deficit that forced cuts to schools and social services, his daughter's arrest on prescription drug fraud charges, feuding among his party's legislative leaders, and the case of missing 5-year-old Rilya Wilson.***

[backhoe]

My Master File on Reno:

Ghosts of Waco haunt the ruins

THESE CHILDREN CAN NEVER VOTE AGAINST JANET RENO

-David T. Hardy: An Interview With American Gun Owners' Best Friend ( & Waco )--

FBI, Delta Force, ATF, All fire Shots into Mt. Carmal killing children

GOVERNMENT TERRORISM - From Ruby Ridge To Waco And Beyond

Waco: A New Revelation, Reviewed by Gavin Phillips [Free ...
... Waco: A New Revelation, Reviewed by Gavin Phillips News/Current Events Opinion
Keywords: WACO,MCNULTY, DOCUMENTARY Source: Waco: A New Revelation Published ...
Description: Raises questions about a documentary film and suggests violation of human rights in the Waco incident.
Category: Regional > North America > ... > Politics > Issues > Human Rights and Liberties
www.freerepublic.com/forum/a388175d5194e.htm - 46k - Cached - Similar pages

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Doubt the Original Raid Was Publicity Stunt". ...

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... Downside Legacy Research: WACO - Carlos Ghigliotti Death (Thread 2) Crime/Corruption
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and facist director who ordered the kidnapping of Elain at gun point, should ...
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Murder, Inc. [Free Republic]
... from TPDL 2000-May-1, from the Washington Post 2000-Apr-29 p.B3,
by Cindy Loose: Waco Siege Investigator Found Dead In His Home. ...
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... AFTERMATH. DEATHS - TRAGEDY - WACO (86 TOTAL). DEATHS
- TRAGEDY - OKLAHOMA CITY (168+19 TOTAL). DEATHS ...
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... I have long believed that the truth will establish a link bewteen Foster's murder
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A link to a whole lot of Elian! Links:

Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! Elian! and yes, even more, Elian!

Reno for Guv? Recall *this*

---

More Waco links from The War Room:

	Reno to Speak in Waco
	300 Weapons Recovered From Branch Davidian Compound
	Ex-Federal Agent Says Resistance Stiffer Than Expected
	Waco Whitewash
__	Waco Siege Investigator Found Dead In His Home	__
__	Waco & the Supreme Court	__
__	V E R Y  Disturbing Waco Revelations	__
__	Another Waco Death	__
__	Report to Congress on Infrared Footage at Waco	__

--The WACO horror--

Waco producer: Weapons photos falsified

FBI, Delta Force, ATF, All fire Shots into Mt. Carmal killing children

-DANFORTH'S FOLLY EXPOSED--

-FLIR Project--

Accountability at Waco

---

-"No More Wacos"--

- Waco--NewsMax.com Hot Topics --

---

Janet Reno Escapades-Strong Arm Tactics

---

There's more:

Impeach Reno Now

Janet Reno mishandled Elian fiasco; she ...

And even more Injustices:

Yesterday on Mike's Show - Janet Reno's ...

frontline: the child terror

Even more Rot:

Reno Orders CIA-Drug Report Secret

More Reno corruption:

How Joe Gersten was framed

[goldstategop]

Janet Reno must be smoking weed. She'd need the Cuban American vote and no one who's smart in Little Havana will ever vote for her and as much as blacks dislike Jeb Bush, he's not a polarizing figure to bring enough of them to turn out to unseat him. Reno is trying to make the best of a bad hand but its not enough to bring her to Tallahassee in November.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

What a resume!

[ChasingFletch]

"Reno thinks numbers can work in her favor."..

The only numbers involved with The Flame should be the ones across her chest in her MUGSHOT !!!

[Cincinatus' Wife]

She has no appeal and can only campaign on division. She isn't worth anyone's vote.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

[f.Christian]

r6e6n6o

[backhoe]

Despite being raised by old soldiers and sailors, and growing up around working-class people, I do not have enough ammo in my "store of cuss-words" to adequately describe this awful excuse for a woman.

A friend of mine, who is a Federal Title II Manufacturer ( short def- he builds machine guns, silencers, and other exotic weaponry ) said when she was appointed AG:

"She's there to protect clinton..."

Truer words have never been spoken.

[Cautor]

Before spending most of last week fund raising in New York and Chicago...

This ugly ass bag of sh%t can't even raise money in FL. She has to spend time out of state trying to find idiots stupid enough to fund her. I though the TV Prez was her ass...er ace in the hole. Hey Martin, where are you?

[Scuttlebutt]

"I do not have enough ammo in my "store of cuss-words" to adequately describe this awful excuse for a woman"

I would be glad to lend you a few if needed.

[glc1173@aol.com]

""Janet is a unique candidate, and there is enormous excitement about her candidacy as she campaigns, even during these summer days when it's hard to get people out," Harburger said. "We think she will inspire turnout that's never been seen before."" (Orlando Sentinel)

Jackboot Janet will also "inspire turnout that's never been seen before" among the groups her campaign can least afford to have come out to vote - Cubans, rednecks, gun people, and Christian conservatives who don't like lesbians.

Also, many other European-Americans will come out just to vote against her if Jackboot Janet gets too obvious about being "the blacks' candidate."

Jackboot Janet's "girlfriend" - the story she fears will hit Florida talk radio!

[boris]

Let her fall down, just one more time, on camera. Just once more, please. I pray nightly.

--Boris

[archy]

Reno thinks numbers can work in her favor

Indeed. I bet she does. And I bet I know which ones, too:

[summer]

FL Gov Jeb Bush
currently has a 62% approval rating in FL
-- a state where there are more registered
Dems than GOP voters.

[Tymesup]

Any update on the accident she was involved in a couple of months ago?

Any update on her taking responsibility for firing incendiary devices into a home filled with children? Inserting poisonous gases into a home filled with children?

Is she still proud of negotiating with the Gonzalez family while preparing to seize Elian at gunpoint?

[caltrop]

Reno is unelectable in Florida. The Democrats down here actually believe she'll turn out their base like nobody else but IMHO the only turnout she'll actually drive is the vote against her. McBride may be a different story but he'll have to win the nomination first. No easy matter unless he's willing to say things which will kill his chances in the general election.

The most interesting point in the article to me is that 30% of the Democrats will vote for Bush against Reno. While many of these will do so on the gun issue, some will undoubtedly appreciate the effort he's made to govern like a Democrat. He's made the government grow significantly (7 1/2% annually prior to the revenue crunch) and he's gotten the legislature to greatly strengthen the Governor's powers - long a liberal goal in Florida.

[summer]

caltrop, I posted recently about that poll showing almost 1/3 of Dems polled said they intend to vote for Gov Bush.

With all due respect to your analysis, I don't think that reflects Gov Bush governing like a liberal at all. Rather, I think it shows the swing voter nature of the average FL Dem voter in this state -- in which case, his victory is all the more remarkable, because he is already pulling in those swing voters.

I note this because I see Reno has recently been saying all that she can to dismiss the influence of swing voters in FL -- yet, the swing and independents will determine the outcome of this election, not the "black" and "gay" voters she claims will turn the tide. If every black and/or gay voter in this state voted for her, she'd still lose.

In addition, I have to point out that what this guy said below seems to echo my previous comment to you, that many people in FL just plain LIKE Gov Bush -- he has the personality and charisma that appeals to many FL voters:

"I think she's better than Jeb Bush," said Charles Grantham, 70, a rancher and member of the Calhoun County Democratic Executive Committee.

"But I don't know if she's going to be able to gin-up enough interest among Democrats wanting to knock him out. A lot of people around here think he's OK -- even Democrats."

And, last but not least, Tymesup, in answer to all your questions, I would just say the headline of this article tells the whole story about Janet Reno: she has nothing to say to voters about anything, so, all she talks about are 'the numbers.' It does not seem to have crossed her mind that voters have tuned her out for a long list of reasons, and for many voters, the reason includes the fact she has no education plan, no plan for FL's future, and no plan at all -- except her laughable notions about how she can perhaps win this race. She IS unelectable -- and on that, I agree completely with caltrop.

[summer]

BTW, forget the italics on my last paragraph above -- should be regular text.

[summer]

...he's gotten the legislature to greatly strengthen the Governor's powers - long a liberal goal in Florida.

I don't know why Chiles never did it, but, it should be noted that FL ranked near last in the nation in terms of gov powers before the changes made by Gov Bush.