Posted on 07/25/2002 9:34:11 AM PDT by Joe Hadenuf
Next month a newly discovered asteroid will pass close enough to Earth to be easily spotted in small telescopes and even binoculars.
According to calculations by Gareth V. Williams, associate director of the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the asteroid's August 18th flyby should bring it to within 530,000 kilometers (330,000 miles) of Earth, just outside the Moon's orbital distance.
Astronomers first detected this object, designated 2002 NY40, on July 14th with the 1-meter LINEAR telescope in New Mexico. Thus it was picked up a full month before brushing by Earth, unlike asteroid 2002 MN, whose pass well inside the Moon's orbit was not realized until several days after the fact. The best current estimates suggest that this new interloper is about 500 meters (0.3 mile) across — significantly larger than 2002 MN.
Still quite faint at magnitude 18, 2002 NY40 is making a very tight loop around the star Beta Aquarii. During the next few weeks it will brighten tremendously and yet remain almost motionless in the sky — the eerie signature of an asteroid hurtling right toward Earth!
On the night of Saturday, August 17th, 2002 NY40 should reach magnitude 9.3 when well placed for viewing from North America. At that time its angular velocity will exceed 4 arcminutes per minute, a motion easily perceptible in small telescopes. Sky & Telescope plans to issue detailed observing instructions, through AstroAlerts and SkyandTelescope.com, in the days leading up to this rare event.
A mere 24 hours after it goes by, the asteroid plunges hopelessly beyond reach of Earth-based telescopes as it heads closer to the Sun. (We will then be viewing its unilluminated side, which explains why it becomes so faint, so fast.)
While there is no danger of 2002 NY40 striking Earth during this flyby, a future impact has not been ruled out. Both NEODyS, operated by the University of Pisa, and NASA's Near-Earth Object Program have identified a number of very close encounters in the years to come. These occur either around August 18th as the asteroid heads in toward the Sun, or near February 14th when on its way out. Both agencies are focusing on a flyby just 20 years from now (on August 18, 2022), when there appears to be a 1-in-500,000 chance of an impact — extremely unlikely, but worrisome just the same.
Meanwhile, professional astronomers are gearing up to make the most of this encounter. "2002 NY40 is a potentially very good radar target," notes Michael Nolan (Cornell University). He urges advanced amateurs to obtain detailed photometry of the asteroid on the nights leading up to the flyby. A good light curve, revealing the object's rotation rate, would help in selecting the radar instrumentation to be used with the 1,000-foot dish at Arecibo, Puerto Rico.
As a conservative, I generally oppose spending on government programs.
But in this case, I believe these close calls with asteroids warrant the U.S. government to find out where these asteroids are and research how to deflect them.
A few million dollars spent on asteroid detection and defense will pale in comparison to the trillions of dollars in damage that would result from the impact of an asteroid of this magnitude.
Or better yet, maybe Steven Speilberg can spend the money he made from Deep Impact to fund such programs.
Opinions?
Won't be a few $1 million. More like $100 billion to $1 trillion.
Also, another reason the old space program was so costly is that Democrats and democrat-kin like Johnson and Nixon funded it. One of the only accomplishments of the Clinton administration was NASA's inception of more numerous, cheap and more powerful space exploration platforms. Maybe a little too cheap, given the failure of the Mars missions. But overall it's a sound idea.
Yes, Liberals must fund this. Its their fault.
Unfortunately, it takes more energy to get to the sun than to about anyplace else in the solar system. About all we can do is predict an asteroid impact and then nudge it so that it just misses.
It would be interesting to see if a hit would even change the course of somthing almost a half mile wide. I imagine it would. What a target though, 330,000 miles from earth. That would be like hitting a fly at 500 yards with 22 rifle.
Of course, if one were on a collision trajectory, we could wait until it was a lot closer. Then again, if we broke it up, it could rain down 500 boulders the size of houses, instead of one big one.
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