Venezuela: Social Tension May Be Nearing Breaking Point

Summary

Snipers opened fire on police in Caracas Aug. 2, amid protests and violence resulting from a Supreme Court ruling that rejected an indictment recommendation against four military officers accused of leading a presidential coup in April. Even if the violence was not government-orchestrated, it could signal that the Chavez regime is losing its ability to control social tension.

Analysis

Armed civilians loyal to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez opened fire Aug. 2 against Metropolitan Police (PM) officials on Sucre Avenue in western Caracas, Union Radio reported. The snipers also fired at an PM helicopter from rooftops in the low-income neighborhood of 23 de Enero near the Miraflores presidential palace, as sections of Caracas experienced a second day of violent street disturbances by hundreds of Chavez supporters who attacked PM patrols and anyone who looked like a journalist.

The violence erupted late July 31 after the country's 20-member Supreme Court rejected a writ from one of its members urging the indictment of four senior military officers on charges of leading an armed coup against the Chavez regime April 11-13. Eight justices voted to indict the officers, but the other 12 abstained. The high court then ordered Judge Alejandro Angulo Fontiveros, who voted to indict, to produce a new writ.

The Supreme Court's decision left open the likelihood that the majority of the court will accept the legal case against the four officers when the new writ is submitted for review next week. However, Chavez loyalists interpreted the court's decision as a result of pressures by political opposition leaders, including former Interior and Justice Minister Luis Miquilena. Miquilena at one time was Chavez's most important and experienced political ally in the government but is now one of the president's greatest foes.

After the judicial decision was announced July 31, about 100 members of the Bolivarian Circles -- armed gangs loyal to Chavez -- who had been camped outside the Supreme Court building for days reacted with violence, forcing PM units to suppress the group with tear gas and water cannons. The protests and violence continued sporadically throughout daylight hours on Aug. 1 but were controlled by police security forces. However, the violence escalated sharply early Aug. 2 when a handful of snipers near the presidential palace began firing at PM patrols.

Preliminary eyewitness reports from the scene of the shooting said that at least five people had suffered gunshot wounds, according to Union Radio. The reports indicated that several of the snipers appeared armed with heavy-caliber automatic weapons like the FAL 7.62 mm assault rifle, which is the Venezuelan military's standard issue infantry weapon. Hundreds of FAL rifles disappeared from military and National Guard arsenals after two failed military coups in February and November 1992, and most have never been recovered.

PM officials said the snipers are believed to be members of a group called the Tupamaros that has existed in the low-income area for at least a decade. Alleged members of this group told the Caracas daily El Nacional earlier this year that they are not members of any Bolivarian Circles, but they identify strongly with Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution" and were prepared to defend it -- violently, if necessary. However, Tupamaros leaders promptly denied the assertion and said they would only act as part of a larger national popular movement to defend the revolution.

Iris Valera, a National Assembly deputy from Tachira state with a reputation as a firebrand pro-Chavez loyalist, denied her Fifth Republic Movement party was using pressure tactics to intimidate the Supreme Court. However, she also warned that "popular movements" would launch a nationwide campaign of "civil resistance and violence" if the Supreme Court does not indict the four military officers. She also called Miquilena "a political Mafioso."

Government officials denied that the Chavez regime was orchestrating the street violence. Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel personally visited a blockade set up by armed civilian groups to persuade them to call off the protest. Additionally, Libertador Municipality Mayor Freddy Bernal, who has been identified as a key leader of the armed components of the Bolivarian Circles, told Union Radio that police patrols had been reinforced in the areas of western Caracas where shooting and scattered incidents of looting had been reported.

The western part of the city is where most of the poorest residents live and also is the source of a substantial Chavez popular following. It's possible that the Chavez regime may be telling the truth when denying orchestrating the recent violence in western Caracas. However, if the government is being truthful, then the events of the past 48 hours would suggest that social tensions among the poor -- including many Chavez supporters -- could be nearing a boiling point that the government may be unable to control.

Right now these Chavez regime supporters are focusing their anger at the four military officers and the Supreme Court, who may symbolize politically what many of them perceive as an effort by rich elite groups to end the Bolivarian revolution that promised the poor a better standard of living. However, the anger and frustration felt by many poor Venezuelans is being fueled mainly by the economy's deterioration. As the reality of the economy's deterioration bites down even more painfully on the poor, the Chavez regime may be unable to control the resulting turmoil.

Chavez has done incalculable damage to Venezuela, and I do not see a happy outcome.

Venezuela is a bitterly poor country, despite its wealth in potential, and the people have always been frustrated by the difference between the vision of what could be, and the poverty that is.

Chavez gave voice to the popular belief that the problems lay in the corruption of the ruling class, and in the cruel capitalist system, which he calls neo-liberalism.

The joke in all of this is that Venezuela has never had a free-enterprise system. The key industries have always been controlled by the government. Chavez blamed their poverty on a free economy that has never existed, and promised to solve their situation with even more socialism.

It is tragic.

It is more tragic because I haven't seen any evidence yet that the Venezuelans understand the source of their misery. It is not neo-liberalism, whatever that is. It is not free enterprise, or capitalism, or foreign capital, or foreign interests.

Their misery is the natural consequence of a state run economy. It is the natural result of economic decisions made by political people for political reasons. And if they do not grasp this truth, their misery will continue even if they manage to rid themselves of Chavez.

Chavez' brand of populism resonates with the people because it is in harmony with the way they already think. But populism is nothing but envy inflated into philosophy, and it does damage where ever it takes root.

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