US desperate to reassure Israel as Scud fears grow [Israel has Iraq in crosshairs]

THE United States is engaged in a critical effort to identify Scud missile launch sites in Iraq, analysts say, in an effort to avoid a disastrous counter-attack on Israel if it moves against Saddam Hussein.

With Israeli officials making it clear they reserve the right to respond to any Iraqi attack, Washington is desperate to reassure Tel Aviv that the Scud "issue" has been dealt with.

In 1991, Israel’s restraint in the face of Baghdad launching 39 Scud missiles at Israeli cities - causing heavy damage but few casualties - was a key factor in Washington’s ability to keeping friendly Arab countries in its Gulf war coalition.

The warning that this time, Israel would retaliate - particularly in the face of a biological or chemical attack by a cornered Saddam - has made plain the minefield Washington could face in the event of a second war designed expressly to drive Saddam from office.

The Israeli health ministry said yesterday it had inoculated 700 health workers against smallpox, as a precaution against a biological attack. A decision is expected on whether to vaccinate up to 150,000 more key personnel. It came as Israeli officials underlined that their response in a second Gulf war could be different.

In an interview with Israeli television, the air force commander Major General Dan Halutz warned: "You can’t take what happened then and think it will also happen this time, neither in the way the war will be conducted there ... nor in the manner of Israel’s reaction."

The Israeli defence minister, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, has warned several times flatly that Israel would hit back.

US intelligence officials, meanwhile, have told the US Congress that Israel could use nuclear weapons if an Iraqi attack with non-conventional weapons causes heavy casualties, the Haaretz daily newspaper yesterday.

In London yesterday, the US national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, described Saddam as "an evil man who , left to his own devices, will wreak havoc again on his own population, his neighbours and - if he gets weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them - all of us".

"It is a very powerful moral case for regime change," Ms Rice told BBC radio. "We certainly do not have the luxury of doing nothing."

The question of whether and how Saddam would launch a strike on Israel is now the "number one issue" facing the US as it plans an Iraq campaign, said Magnus Ranstorp, a specialist on the Middle East with the University of St Andrews’ Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence.

After 11 September, Israeli military intelligence said Iraq had 11 to 15 Scud missiles pointed at Israel.

The tough line from Tel Aviv ahead of a threatened US military action to topple Saddam may be a predictable one. But analysts are focusing on what happens to the "Arab street" in pro-Western Arab countries in the event that Israel is drawn into the war.

In the Gaza strip yesterday, several hundred Palestinians staged a rally in support of Saddam, chanting: "Dear Saddam, bomb Tel Aviv."

In 1991, Israel reluctantly complied with Washington’s request to hold back. But today, Israel is not hampered in the same way because there is no coalition to hold together, said Dore Gold, an adviser to the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon. Mr Sharon has hung his reputation on hitting back hard in the face of terrorist attacks.

"The tone has changed," said Mr Ranstorp. "The context is different. If Israel is attacked by Scuds, it changes the entire equation on the US war on Iraq."

Jordan’s King Abdullah has made plain his opposition to a US attack on Iraq. Iran, meanwhile, views with alarm the prospect of US troops across the border in Iraq.

The question of Israel’s response is a subject of rising debate. Moshe Arens, Israel’s defence minister at the time of the 1991 war, wrote this week that Israeli ground forces had been training for an invasion of western Iraq to search for missile launchers, but the war ended before it could take place.

Gen Halutz did not say how Israel would respond to a new Iraqi attack, but Israeli officials have hinted that the response to a conventional attack would consist of air strikes and ground attacks by airborne forces.

In 1991, the US supplied Israel with Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries, but the Patriot, designed as an anti-aircraft missile, proved ineffectual against Scuds. Since then Israel, with US financing, has developed the only anti-missile missile in the world, Gen Halutz said.

In addition to the smallpox vaccine, Israel’s atomic energy committee said yesterday that anti-radiation iodine tablets would be distributed to people living near Israel’s two nuclear reactors. It denied the move was connected to the Iraqi threat.

But who knows what stupid thing that the Arab & Muslims of the world do in response to the counter attack & so on & so on.

LOL! Bring it on!!! If another Islamic state wants to join in the rumble, let it. The US, Turkey, and Israel combined could stomp every Islamic state [other than Turkey] for a thousand miles. Just give Turkey all the territory it wants, and I bet we have a deal.

This is the dynamic.... Israel is a wild card that we have no control over. The Islamics will rip their beards off and shave their heads in frustration, because we would be unable to do a darn thing about Israel.

When it comes to insults, Saddam isn't half bad. He called G W 'Little Bush'. So I would imagine that Bush's one insult would inspire many others from Saddam that would make him more respected than ever. "The Little Bush left like a tiny dog with his tail between his legs, turning back with bluffing growls." No, insults are easy for dictators. Bush has to process everything he says diplomatically with his advisors.

I don't think Israel would ask you to... but I believe America should not pressure Israel not to counter-attack should Iraq attack her the way we did in 1991. We must not impliment a double standard against Israel and prevent her from responding to Arab-backed terror-- since we ourselves have responded.

We Israelis have long been aware that we want peace and "they" don't. We do whatever we can to promote peace and they reject it. We have educated the Arab peasants, given them western medicine and brought them generally into the 20th/21st centuries. However our money and patience is not unlimited and there is much bureaucracy in the civil service; I suppose because we are a new country which is establishing its infrastructure during a time of continuous warfare, where most resources are devoted to defence. There is also the fact that some Israelis have a personal debt to settle with Arabs. The courts never support such racist behaviour, but the Arabs take it personally. Each failure to perform is taken as a personal insult, each success is taken for granted.

Considering the intense spotlight thrown on every aspect of Israel's dealings with the Palestinians I think we have actually come out of it quite well. Can you imagine if this intense scrutiny were turned on other countries and their shortcomings?

The President is the most powerful man on the Earth, yes I believe had Bush wanted to do it, he could have. However the alliance was such at the time that he chose not to go against what the alliance wanted. Was it a mistake, most definately. But Politics is a fickled mistress and sometimes we don't get to do what we wanted to do.

I have no end of respect for the tolerance of the Jews toward their Arab neighbors. You have continuously shown a willingness to work with a people who have denied your very right to exist. When terrorists blew up two of our buildings we declared war on the country that harbored them. You have to put up with many such bombings on an almost daily basis, yet have continued to try to make a way for this new nation of Palestine to be created as your neighbor - sacrificing some of your land to accomplish the task.

In the mean time, their own leaders treat them like dirt. There is no question that the Arabs in Israel had it much better under Jewish rule than under "Palestinian rule". Money that was intended to reduce poverty has been used to fatten the coiffers of the leaders and to buy weapons. ArafRAT and his cronies get richer and the "Palestinians" get poorer and the Jews get the blame.

May Ha Shem bless Israel and grant peace to Jerusalem.

Shalom.

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