Posted on 8/26/2002, 7:01:48 PM by rightwing2
Marxist May Win the Presidency in Brazil This Fall
David T. Pyne
August 25, 2002
[Note: This column originally ran as a two-part series.]
Brazil seems poised to elect the standard-bearer of a Communist-aligned coalition movement as its president this October. Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, the perennial candidate of Brazil's Communist-aligned Popular Front who continues to lead his opponents in every presidential poll during this election cycle, is currently polling 37 percent of the vote. If elected president, da Silva would revolutionize Brazil and form a 'Castro-da Silva-Chavez axis' along with the Communist leaders of Cuba and Venezuela. Secretary of the Treasury, Paul O' Neill recently expressed concern over this potential development. Such a new dominant regional power bloc would threaten to radicalize much of the rest of Latin America as well.
Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for October 6th with a run-off vote on October 27th for the top two voter getters if no candidate gets a majority in the first vote. According to the latest poll, the only non-socialist presidential candidate, Jose Serra, has slipped to only 13 percent of the vote. Running in second place is the candidate of the Popular Socialist Party and the Worker's Front, Cero Gomes, who has recently surged to 27 percent of the vote. Even though his party is a fairly recent offshoot of the Brazilian Communist Party, Gomes, is invariably mischaracterized in the liberal 'mainstream' press as a 'center-left' candidate. The final socialist party candidate, Anthony Garotinho is polling 12 percent. The Brazilian right, whose candidate bowed out of the race amid corruption allegations, is badly fractured and has divided most of its support between Serra and Gomes.
The good news is that the latest polling data indicates that da Silva is highly unlikely to be elected in the first round with a 50 percent or better showing unless one of the other candidates bows out of the race prematurely. The bad news is that the strong polling numbers of his ideological comrade-in-arms, socialist Cero Gomes increases the highly disturbing prospect that Serra will lose the first vote and that Brazil will be forced to choose between two Marxist candidates in the second round. Current polling data show da Silva and Gomes either tying or Gomes narrowly winning in the second round. Much, if not most, of the 39 percent of the vote that is going to the other two socialist candidates would likely go to da Silva in a second round run-off vote with Serra who polls show da Silva beating Serra handily.
This is da Silva's fourth run for the Presidency. I was living and working in Brazil in 1989 when he first ran. At that time, there was a lot of fear among Brazilians that if da Silva was elected the nation's industries would be nationalized, press freedoms and other rights would be curtailed, and Americans would be deported out of the country. One of da Silva's conservative opponents even ran a TV commercial that Brazilians would have to 'jump the wall' if da Silva was elected. [This was before the collapse of the Berlin Wall.] Ultimately, he succeeded in capturing 47% of the popular vote in Brazil's first democratic presidential election in 30 years. Da Silva has been somewhat successful in moderating his image since then though his Marxist-oriented policy positions remain essentially unchanged..
Constantine Mendes, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute has characterized Gomes as 'the Communist candidate.' In fact, Gomes was a member of the largest centrist party of Brazil until a few years ago and is a fairly recent convert to socialism. While Gomes is clearly not a Communist, his party does have a Communist heritage. Regardless, it is clear that given Da Silva's strident anti-American rhetoric and his alignment with America's enemies like Iraq, Libya, Communist China, Cuba and various unsavory terrorist groups, it is Da Silva, not Gomes, which represents the greater threat to the US, were he to be elected President of Brazil.
Da Silva has enjoyed the support of both of Brazil's Communist Parties working together with his Marxist Worker's Party in the 'Popular Front' to help him get elected on every occasion that he has run for President. Joining together in a popular front coalition with a 'mainstream' socialist party is a longtime Communist tactic to take power in a country. Were Da Silva to win the Presidency, he would most assuredly appoint cabinet ministers from the ranks of his Communist Party coalition partners. Da Silva stated back in June that he believes Brazil's current economic model is 'worn out.' If elected, he would bring an end to Brazil's free-market experiment, greatly increase social spending, and likely default on Brazil's debt resulting in a widespread economic crisis throughout Latin America. A default on Brazil's debt could trigger greater economic turmoil throughout Latin America and to a lesser extent the US. Gomes, on the other hand, is perceived as more mainstream although he is a leftist firebrand in his own right.
Mendes recently suggested in one of his recent editorials on the electoral crisis in Brazil, that if the US loses Brazil to a Marxist like da Silva, one of the issues of the 2004 presidential election might well be, 'Who lost South America?' This will be a very valid question and it is possible that in a close presidential election, the very Presidency of George W. Bush may be decided over this and related potential foreign policy failures if it is perceived that the President did not take action to avert this likely potential crisis.
President Bush should act immediately to shore up the forces of freedom in Brazil. The US should strongly encourage the non-socialist democratic parties of Brazil to unite behind a single candidate to challenge da Silva for the Presidency—preferably Serra. President Bush could hold a meeting with Serra to give him increased credibility. He could endorse his candidacy as well and talk about the great importance he places on forging a new relationship with Brazil based on full equality and the improvement of bilateral relations across the board. The President could send campaign advisors to help with Serra's TV campaign ads, which appear to be his only hope for winning the election. Bush could declare that da Silva is outside the mainstream, warn of his links to terrorists and rogue states and state that his election could turn back the clock for US-Brazilian relations that have become increasingly friendly in recent years. In Nicaragua, the Administration sent high-level officials to give speeches denouncing Daniel Ortega and saying that a vote for him would mean a return to totalitarianism and or dictatorship. That is something that could be done with Brazil as well. If for any reason, Serra fails to make it to the runoff, the US will be forced to support the socialist party candidate, Ciro Gomes against the greater hemisphere-wide threat from da Silva.
***
Were a Communist coalition under front-running presidential candidate Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva allied with Cuban President Fidel Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to take power in Brazil following this October's presidential election, it would undoubtedly be the greatest Communist coup since Mao and his Red Army proclaimed the People's Republic of China in Beijing over fifty years ago. In one fell swoop, 175 million more Latin Americans would fall under Marxist domination and together with Communist Cuba and Communist led Venezuela would automatically be the dominant power bloc in Latin America with a sizable majority of the population and territory there.
Constantine Mendes, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute and former member of the National Security Council who recently preceded me in being interviewed on Howard Phillips' excellent and informative Conservative Roundtable public access program, has written a series of similar, but highly important articles regarding the developing political situation in Brazil. His articles serve to confirm what I wrote in an editorial on the Communist threat back in June. In addition to da Silva's strong ties to rogue states such as Cuba, Iraq, and Libya, Mendes states that da Silva has publicly praised his friend, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as 'an example to emulate' if he succeeds in getting elected President in October. He states that this would mean that we could expect 'the use of pseudo-electoral process and referenda to consolidate his rule as dictator.' Da Silva would probably embark upon a slow path of transforming Brazil into an authoritarian, though not doctrinaire Marxist state. He would likely subvert political freedoms in Brazil and change the constitution and/or commit electoral fraud to ensure his indefinite continuance in power as has been done by Chavez in Venezuela. His political opponents should expect no mercy.
Mendes has attempted to highlight the dangers posed by a da Silva victory in the Brazilian presidential elections and prod the Bush Administration to pursue whatever options are available to avert what would undoubtedly amount to the greatest regional crisis for the US since the Soviets parked nuclear-tipped medium range ballistic missiles in Cuba in 1962. He warns of the formation of 'a new axis of evil' if da Silva wins the election. Mendes writes that da Silva has spoken of his desire to restart Brazil's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs if re-elected. He reveals that Brazil's military actually 'successfully designed two atomic bombs and was reportedly on the verge of testing one nuclear device' when its democratic participant discovered the rogue program and shut it down in 1994. Da Silva has essentially declared his intention to have Brazil join the Sino-Russian axis of nations against the United States if he becomes President. He has also expressed interest in providing Communist China with naval bases along Brazil's long Atlantic coastline.
Brazil is the second largest and second most powerful country in the Western Hemisphere, comprising over half the population and territory of South America. As it borders on ten other countries in Latin America, Brazil would be well-positioned to serve as regional hegemon of the South American continent were it to find the political will to do so. This would be particularly true were it to test a nuclear weapon and become a nuclear power. Brazil also boasts the world's eighth largest economy.
Da Silva has established extensive ties to international terrorism. He has been very critical of the US 'War on Terror' and has professed admiration for such widely respected international statesmen as Saddam Hussein and Mohomar Quadafi. His election as President would greatly increase the prospect of a successful takeover of Columbia by the Communist FARC guerillas, which he fully supports. Mendes states that a Marxist regime in Brazil would also be well-positioned to help cause Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru to fall to would-be Marxist dictators and exploit the deepening economic crisis in Argentina, which I recently visited in June, and Paraguay. All told, a da Silva victory could well result in 'as many as 300 million people' falling 'under the control of anti-American dictatorships.'
In 1990, da Silva co-founded the Forum of Sao Paulo with Cuban President Fidel Castro and former Nicaraguan Marxist President Daniel Ortega. The Forum is a kind of annual 'Communist Party Congress' for Communists, anti-American terrorists and Marxist revolutionaries to meet together and strategize on how to best effect their plans for Communizing much if not most of Latin America. Venezuelan President and self-proclaimed Communist, Hugo Chavez has become a major power player in this organization since coming to power in 1998. Chavez is probably supporting the da Silva campaign to the tune of millions of dollars while Castro may also be committing hundreds of his intelligence operatives to help da Silva win the election.
Under da Silva's leadership, Brazil would become the new Marxist powerhouse of Latin America and the base of operations for a new Latin American 'axis of evil' from which much of the rest of Latin America, beginning with Panama could fall like a series of dominoes to well-supported Marxist politicos and revolutionaries. America's surviving allies in Latin America would be completely isolated. Losing Brazil to a Communist-aligned regime would be a loss that the US could not recover from anytime soon. It would force the US to retool its entire foreign policy and change its main focus from the Eurasian subcontinent to Latin America with a concomitant redeployment of forces to the South American theater of operations [SOCOM.] It would also require the reoccupation by US military forces of the Panama Canal and the eviction of its current Communist Chinese tenets for the US to have any hope of restoring a measure of continental, let alone hemispheric security.
During a pre-brief for my last trip to Brazil's capitol last March as part of an official US government delegation, I queried the intelligence community briefer on whether he believed that an electoral victory by da Silva would adversely effect Brazil's foreign policy towards the US. He told me that he did not believe that it would, despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary. Since then, I have determined that neither the Bush Administration nor the US intelligence community is focusing much attention on the threat of a Marxist takeover of Brazil and determining what that outcome would mean for US foreign policy initiatives in Brazil. Accordingly a victory by da Silva in this fall's election will be a wake-up call for which they will be woefully unprepared. The Bush Administration would be well-advised to correct course and take immediate action designed to prevent the unthinkable loss of Brazil to a Communist-aligned coalition government.
© 2002 David T. Pyne
David T. Pyne, Esq. works as an International Programs Manager with the Department of the Army responsible for cooperation with Latin America. He is a former Army Reserve Officer. He spent two years in Brazil from 1988-1990 serving as a missionary for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. Mr. Pyne recently served as a member of an official Department of Defense-led trip to meet with officials of Brazil’s newly established Ministry of Defense. Mr. Pyne holds an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University and is a member of the Center for Emerging National Security Affairs based in Washington, D.C. He has been cited in the New American magazine and was recently interviewed on Howard Phillips’ Conservative Roundtable TV program in regards to issues related to the coming Brazilian election.
If the media gets their way, Hillary will be our next President. We may not be that far behind them.
Regards, Ivan
IMHO, I would get our boys out of Europe (where they are not wanted) and bring them back here to enforce the Monroe Doctrine. But maybe I'm just being paranoid.
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