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Marxist May Win the Presidency in Brazil This Fall
The Patriotist ^ | August 25, 2002 | David T. Pyne

Posted on 8/26/2002, 7:01:48 PM by rightwing2

Marxist May Win the Presidency in Brazil This Fall

David T. Pyne

August 25, 2002

[Note: This column originally ran as a two-part series.]

Brazil seems poised to elect the standard-bearer of a Communist-aligned coalition movement as its president this October. Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, the perennial candidate of Brazil's Communist-aligned Popular Front who continues to lead his opponents in every presidential poll during this election cycle, is currently polling 37 percent of the vote. If elected president, da Silva would revolutionize Brazil and form a 'Castro-da Silva-Chavez axis' along with the Communist leaders of Cuba and Venezuela. Secretary of the Treasury, Paul O' Neill recently expressed concern over this potential development. Such a new dominant regional power bloc would threaten to radicalize much of the rest of Latin America as well.

Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for October 6th with a run-off vote on October 27th for the top two voter getters if no candidate gets a majority in the first vote. According to the latest poll, the only non-socialist presidential candidate, Jose Serra, has slipped to only 13 percent of the vote. Running in second place is the candidate of the Popular Socialist Party and the Worker's Front, Cero Gomes, who has recently surged to 27 percent of the vote. Even though his party is a fairly recent offshoot of the Brazilian Communist Party, Gomes, is invariably mischaracterized in the liberal 'mainstream' press as a 'center-left' candidate. The final socialist party candidate, Anthony Garotinho is polling 12 percent. The Brazilian right, whose candidate bowed out of the race amid corruption allegations, is badly fractured and has divided most of its support between Serra and Gomes.

The good news is that the latest polling data indicates that da Silva is highly unlikely to be elected in the first round with a 50 percent or better showing unless one of the other candidates bows out of the race prematurely. The bad news is that the strong polling numbers of his ideological comrade-in-arms, socialist Cero Gomes increases the highly disturbing prospect that Serra will lose the first vote and that Brazil will be forced to choose between two Marxist candidates in the second round. Current polling data show da Silva and Gomes either tying or Gomes narrowly winning in the second round. Much, if not most, of the 39 percent of the vote that is going to the other two socialist candidates would likely go to da Silva in a second round run-off vote with Serra who polls show da Silva beating Serra handily.

This is da Silva's fourth run for the Presidency. I was living and working in Brazil in 1989 when he first ran. At that time, there was a lot of fear among Brazilians that if da Silva was elected the nation's industries would be nationalized, press freedoms and other rights would be curtailed, and Americans would be deported out of the country. One of da Silva's conservative opponents even ran a TV commercial that Brazilians would have to 'jump the wall' if da Silva was elected. [This was before the collapse of the Berlin Wall.] Ultimately, he succeeded in capturing 47% of the popular vote in Brazil's first democratic presidential election in 30 years. Da Silva has been somewhat successful in moderating his image since then though his Marxist-oriented policy positions remain essentially unchanged..

Constantine Mendes, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute has characterized Gomes as 'the Communist candidate.' In fact, Gomes was a member of the largest centrist party of Brazil until a few years ago and is a fairly recent convert to socialism. While Gomes is clearly not a Communist, his party does have a Communist heritage. Regardless, it is clear that given Da Silva's strident anti-American rhetoric and his alignment with America's enemies like Iraq, Libya, Communist China, Cuba and various unsavory terrorist groups, it is Da Silva, not Gomes, which represents the greater threat to the US, were he to be elected President of Brazil.

Da Silva has enjoyed the support of both of Brazil's Communist Parties working together with his Marxist Worker's Party in the 'Popular Front' to help him get elected on every occasion that he has run for President. Joining together in a popular front coalition with a 'mainstream' socialist party is a longtime Communist tactic to take power in a country. Were Da Silva to win the Presidency, he would most assuredly appoint cabinet ministers from the ranks of his Communist Party coalition partners. Da Silva stated back in June that he believes Brazil's current economic model is 'worn out.' If elected, he would bring an end to Brazil's free-market experiment, greatly increase social spending, and likely default on Brazil's debt resulting in a widespread economic crisis throughout Latin America. A default on Brazil's debt could trigger greater economic turmoil throughout Latin America and to a lesser extent the US. Gomes, on the other hand, is perceived as more mainstream although he is a leftist firebrand in his own right.

Mendes recently suggested in one of his recent editorials on the electoral crisis in Brazil, that if the US loses Brazil to a Marxist like da Silva, one of the issues of the 2004 presidential election might well be, 'Who lost South America?' This will be a very valid question and it is possible that in a close presidential election, the very Presidency of George W. Bush may be decided over this and related potential foreign policy failures if it is perceived that the President did not take action to avert this likely potential crisis.

President Bush should act immediately to shore up the forces of freedom in Brazil. The US should strongly encourage the non-socialist democratic parties of Brazil to unite behind a single candidate to challenge da Silva for the Presidency—preferably Serra. President Bush could hold a meeting with Serra to give him increased credibility. He could endorse his candidacy as well and talk about the great importance he places on forging a new relationship with Brazil based on full equality and the improvement of bilateral relations across the board. The President could send campaign advisors to help with Serra's TV campaign ads, which appear to be his only hope for winning the election. Bush could declare that da Silva is outside the mainstream, warn of his links to terrorists and rogue states and state that his election could turn back the clock for US-Brazilian relations that have become increasingly friendly in recent years. In Nicaragua, the Administration sent high-level officials to give speeches denouncing Daniel Ortega and saying that a vote for him would mean a return to totalitarianism and or dictatorship. That is something that could be done with Brazil as well. If for any reason, Serra fails to make it to the runoff, the US will be forced to support the socialist party candidate, Ciro Gomes against the greater hemisphere-wide threat from da Silva.

***

Were a Communist coalition under front-running presidential candidate Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva allied with Cuban President Fidel Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to take power in Brazil following this October's presidential election, it would undoubtedly be the greatest Communist coup since Mao and his Red Army proclaimed the People's Republic of China in Beijing over fifty years ago. In one fell swoop, 175 million more Latin Americans would fall under Marxist domination and together with Communist Cuba and Communist led Venezuela would automatically be the dominant power bloc in Latin America with a sizable majority of the population and territory there.

Constantine Mendes, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute and former member of the National Security Council who recently preceded me in being interviewed on Howard Phillips' excellent and informative Conservative Roundtable public access program, has written a series of similar, but highly important articles regarding the developing political situation in Brazil. His articles serve to confirm what I wrote in an editorial on the Communist threat back in June. In addition to da Silva's strong ties to rogue states such as Cuba, Iraq, and Libya, Mendes states that da Silva has publicly praised his friend, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as 'an example to emulate' if he succeeds in getting elected President in October. He states that this would mean that we could expect 'the use of pseudo-electoral process and referenda to consolidate his rule as dictator.' Da Silva would probably embark upon a slow path of transforming Brazil into an authoritarian, though not doctrinaire Marxist state. He would likely subvert political freedoms in Brazil and change the constitution and/or commit electoral fraud to ensure his indefinite continuance in power as has been done by Chavez in Venezuela. His political opponents should expect no mercy.

Mendes has attempted to highlight the dangers posed by a da Silva victory in the Brazilian presidential elections and prod the Bush Administration to pursue whatever options are available to avert what would undoubtedly amount to the greatest regional crisis for the US since the Soviets parked nuclear-tipped medium range ballistic missiles in Cuba in 1962. He warns of the formation of 'a new axis of evil' if da Silva wins the election. Mendes writes that da Silva has spoken of his desire to restart Brazil's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs if re-elected. He reveals that Brazil's military actually 'successfully designed two atomic bombs and was reportedly on the verge of testing one nuclear device' when its democratic participant discovered the rogue program and shut it down in 1994. Da Silva has essentially declared his intention to have Brazil join the Sino-Russian axis of nations against the United States if he becomes President. He has also expressed interest in providing Communist China with naval bases along Brazil's long Atlantic coastline.

Brazil is the second largest and second most powerful country in the Western Hemisphere, comprising over half the population and territory of South America. As it borders on ten other countries in Latin America, Brazil would be well-positioned to serve as regional hegemon of the South American continent were it to find the political will to do so. This would be particularly true were it to test a nuclear weapon and become a nuclear power. Brazil also boasts the world's eighth largest economy.

Da Silva has established extensive ties to international terrorism. He has been very critical of the US 'War on Terror' and has professed admiration for such widely respected international statesmen as Saddam Hussein and Mohomar Quadafi. His election as President would greatly increase the prospect of a successful takeover of Columbia by the Communist FARC guerillas, which he fully supports. Mendes states that a Marxist regime in Brazil would also be well-positioned to help cause Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru to fall to would-be Marxist dictators and exploit the deepening economic crisis in Argentina, which I recently visited in June, and Paraguay. All told, a da Silva victory could well result in 'as many as 300 million people' falling 'under the control of anti-American dictatorships.'

In 1990, da Silva co-founded the Forum of Sao Paulo with Cuban President Fidel Castro and former Nicaraguan Marxist President Daniel Ortega. The Forum is a kind of annual 'Communist Party Congress' for Communists, anti-American terrorists and Marxist revolutionaries to meet together and strategize on how to best effect their plans for Communizing much if not most of Latin America. Venezuelan President and self-proclaimed Communist, Hugo Chavez has become a major power player in this organization since coming to power in 1998. Chavez is probably supporting the da Silva campaign to the tune of millions of dollars while Castro may also be committing hundreds of his intelligence operatives to help da Silva win the election.

Under da Silva's leadership, Brazil would become the new Marxist powerhouse of Latin America and the base of operations for a new Latin American 'axis of evil' from which much of the rest of Latin America, beginning with Panama could fall like a series of dominoes to well-supported Marxist politicos and revolutionaries. America's surviving allies in Latin America would be completely isolated. Losing Brazil to a Communist-aligned regime would be a loss that the US could not recover from anytime soon. It would force the US to retool its entire foreign policy and change its main focus from the Eurasian subcontinent to Latin America with a concomitant redeployment of forces to the South American theater of operations [SOCOM.] It would also require the reoccupation by US military forces of the Panama Canal and the eviction of its current Communist Chinese tenets for the US to have any hope of restoring a measure of continental, let alone hemispheric security.

During a pre-brief for my last trip to Brazil's capitol last March as part of an official US government delegation, I queried the intelligence community briefer on whether he believed that an electoral victory by da Silva would adversely effect Brazil's foreign policy towards the US. He told me that he did not believe that it would, despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary. Since then, I have determined that neither the Bush Administration nor the US intelligence community is focusing much attention on the threat of a Marxist takeover of Brazil and determining what that outcome would mean for US foreign policy initiatives in Brazil. Accordingly a victory by da Silva in this fall's election will be a wake-up call for which they will be woefully unprepared. The Bush Administration would be well-advised to correct course and take immediate action designed to prevent the unthinkable loss of Brazil to a Communist-aligned coalition government.

© 2002 David T. Pyne

David T. Pyne, Esq. works as an International Programs Manager with the Department of the Army responsible for cooperation with Latin America. He is a former Army Reserve Officer. He spent two years in Brazil from 1988-1990 serving as a missionary for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. Mr. Pyne recently served as a member of an official Department of Defense-led trip to meet with officials of Brazil’s newly established Ministry of Defense. Mr. Pyne holds an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University and is a member of the Center for Emerging National Security Affairs based in Washington, D.C. He has been cited in the New American magazine and was recently interviewed on Howard Phillips’ Conservative Roundtable TV program in regards to issues related to the coming Brazilian election.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News
KEYWORDS: brazil; communist; marxist
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Very alarming article about a major potential reverse in the works for US foreign policy in the Western Hemisphere. I am really surprised that the Bush Administration is not paying more attention to this threatening development. Let us hope that this Marxist "Lula" character is soundly defeated by the Brazilian electorate come the runoff elections in late October.
1 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:01:48 PM by rightwing2
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To: rightwing2
Let them elect a Marxist and watch the country implode or tear itself apart. They just never learn.
2 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:02:36 PM by Conservative til I die
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To: Conservative til I die
Let them elect a Marxist and watch the country implode or tear itself apart. They just never learn.

If the media gets their way, Hillary will be our next President. We may not be that far behind them.

3 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:04:32 PM by Always Right
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To: Conservative til I die; sonofliberty2; HalfIrish; NMC EXP; OKCSubmariner; Travis McGee; t-shirt; ...
Let them elect a Marxist and watch the country implode or tear itself apart. They just never learn.

If they elect a Marxist, they are more likely to tear the rest of Latin America apart then themselves. If Lula is elected, I guess our only hope would be persuading the more conservative Brazilian military to stage a coup, but then again that didn't seem to work too well when it was recently tried in Venezuela.
4 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:05:57 PM by rightwing2
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To: Always Right
You are right. As always.
5 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:06:39 PM by RightWhale
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To: rightwing2
What I find frustrating is that if you look at the Economist, they were making soothing noises about this Lula. For God's sake, he's a bloody Red - we should no more tolerate his presence than we would tolerate that of a Nazi!

Regards, Ivan

6 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:10:40 PM by MadIvan
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To: rightwing2
Commies back in Poland and Eastern Europe, Marxists the vogue in Brasil's government as well as its clergy ... this "privatization|democratization" thing's going splendidly ... all power, if not profit, to the People's Will!
7 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:12:10 PM by Askel5
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To: MadIvan
Lula has been trying to moderate his image for years. He has reportedly selected a centrist as his VP running mate, but he still enjoys the support of both Communist parties of Brazil. Funny, I haven't even heard one other author (including Mendes) besides this one report on Lula's Brazilian Communist connections.
8 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:14:57 PM by rightwing2
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To: rightwing2
Well then let's bomb Brazil pre-emptively before they get weapons of mass destruction.
9 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:16:18 PM by ex-snook
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To: RightWhale
Chinese naval bases in the Atlantic/Carib?

A long way from home and quite isolated!

I like the prospect of retaking the Panama
Canal.

Mad Vlad

10 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:16:23 PM by madvlad
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To: Askel5; MadIvan
Commies back in Poland and Eastern Europe, Marxists the vogue in Brasil's government as well as its clergy ... this "privatization|democratization" thing's going splendidly ... all power, if not profit, to the People's Will!

Funny, you don't hear about Communist electoral takeovers in Eastern Europe--Poland, Hungary and Romania. In an age when Russia has been accepted into the NATO alliance, it seems that Communism is no longer all that threatening anymore and that our only remaining enemies are the three rogue states of Bush's axis of evil and a few thousand Al Queda terrorists. In fact, Moscow continues to provide major military assistance to these countries as well as Al Queda state sponsor Iran. Russia also provides its proxy states with WND and ballistic missile tech with which to threaten the US at the same time Russian President and former KGB spymaster Puting is feigning a strategic partnership with the US. You wouldn't believe the analysis done on Putin by the intel community. Everything I have read says that Putin is very two sided and says one thing while doing something else. Bush realized this when he came to office, but then made the decision in June 2001 to make Putin "an ally" in order to help remake his image in Europe. Putin never changed his hard-line policies. Bush changed his.
11 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:23:03 PM by rightwing2
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To: madvlad
Chinese naval bases in the Atlantic/Carib? A long way from home and quite isolated! I like the prospect of retaking the Panama Canal. Mad Vlad

My impression is that these "naval bases" would be more along the lines of what we have seen in the Panama Canal where a ChiCom front company buys up all the big port facilities for use by COSCO container ships. These container ships then transport ChiCom agents and weapons into the target country. Since only a small part of the PLA Navy is "blue water"/ocean going, only a few warships would likely make use of these ports, but even these few could tie down a large US naval contingent in a potential war with Communist China over Taiwan.
12 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:28:21 PM by rightwing2
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To: rightwing2
You have to hand it to them. While we are busy patting ourselves on the back for winning the cold war, the Commies (aided by Gramscians Carter and Clinton) are making some brilliant chess moves. First the Chicoms build the largest naval base in the world in the Bahamas and grab control of the Panama Canal to diminish our capacity to intervene in South America. They buy our nuclear secrets (although Clinton probably would have just given it to them)to inch closer to MADD thereby preventing us from stopping their moves.They begin pouring troops (several hundred thousand troops mean nothing to them)into Venezuela to make sure that Chavez stays in power and are ready to go into Brazil and Mexico thereby cutting off a huge supply of our oil and opening up a massive second front.

IMHO, I would get our boys out of Europe (where they are not wanted) and bring them back here to enforce the Monroe Doctrine. But maybe I'm just being paranoid.

13 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:28:34 PM by MattinNJ
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To: ex-snook
Well then let's bomb Brazil pre-emptively before they get weapons of mass destruction.

If Lula takes full control of the country including the military, we may have to...
14 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:29:33 PM by rightwing2
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To: MattinNJ
IMHO, I would get our boys out of Europe (where they are not wanted) and bring them back here to enforce the Monroe Doctrine. But maybe I'm just being paranoid.

Your're not. My prediction is that if Lula wins, we are going to see a return to the Monroe Doctrine in a big way. Wasted efforts on UN Peacekeeping will have to be phased out if we are to counter the increasing threat from this Sino-Russian "Second Front" in our own backyard.
15 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:32:27 PM by rightwing2
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To: rightwing2
This change in leadership in Brazil has been a long time coming. This will be the first truly democratically elected marxist in the Western World (Chavez bulldozed his way in, Ortega and Castro--well you know). I used to live in Brazil for many years, and I still travel there. My observations are that the the current party has stemmed the the tide of corruption somewhat, but it was too late. The economy is still in tatters, although it is eons ahead of Argentina. Thankfully this is a political movement rather than a military one. From many of my friends down there, they view this movement as a fad. Their opinion is "let" Lula win and watch his party implode as the people that voted for them realize that this was not what they bargained for. If the US steps in and tries to interfere, it will only agravate the situation and polarize the Brazilians against US policy. The US should have a hands off approach and accept the results of the election. Maintain a careful distance, but implement policies that make it more difficult for the marxist party to succeed without appearing to have our hands in their downfall. The Brazilian people love politics and political debate. If the marxist party even attempts to surpress any dialogue or individual rights, there would be a revolt. I tend to trust their abilities to work through a situation better than Venezuelans, Cubans or Argentinians.
16 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:33:21 PM by Maringa
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To: ex-snook
LOL. Now...you joke but the whiz kid world micromanagers (and their cheerleaders on FR) will indeed probably be pushing an invasion of Brazil if that happens.
17 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:39:16 PM by Austin Willard Wright
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To: rightwing2
Thanks rightwing2. You proved the point I just made in the previous post.
18 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:40:10 PM by Austin Willard Wright
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To: rightwing2
I believe that is why we have a two-ocean navy!!
The Pac fleet is in the Pac and the ATL fleet
is in Norfolk! bwahahaahahahahahahaha

Those Chicom bluewater ships that ain't around Taiwan
will be dealt w/ easily in the Atl and will not
pose a threat to US ships I think. Moreover, it
will mean fewer ships to contend w/ in the Formosa
Strait.

I don't see the Chicoms bringing Taiwna into
compliance w/ missile attacks alone any more than Germany
brought England down w/ the Blitz. It will require
occupation forces which will be transported across
the Formosa Strait by ship or cargo a/c. Either
way, methinks the fewer Chicom blue water ships in the
fray, the easier it will be for US subs playing
hunter-killer.

The Blitz may have worked eventually had the US not been
the supporter that it was. If the US is willing to
provide protection to Taiwan upon a Chicom attack,
methinks that the Chicoms will not ford the Strait
and Taiwan will win its independence.

Mad Vlad
19 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:44:52 PM by madvlad
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To: nunya bidness
The implacable pootie-poot ... who in their right mind wouldn't swoon?
20 posted on 8/26/2002, 7:55:45 PM by Askel5
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