McBride reduces Reno's lead in Florida

Washington Times ^ | 8/29/02 | Steve Miller

[kattracks]

A poll released yesterday shows Florida gubernatorial hopeful Bill McBride has nearly closed the gap with former Attorney General Janet Reno in the Democratic primary.

Miss Reno leads Mr. McBride 34 percent to 31 percent, according to the poll of registered Democrats conducted Aug. 22-25 for the Internet news service InsiderAdvantage by the Marketing Workshop in Atlanta.

[AmericaUnited]

"This has to be concerning [Mr. Bush] at this point," Mr. Towery said. "Just the idea that half the Democratic voters don't recognize McBride and he can still be this close to the governor in the poll."

Oh really?! Maybe it's because half of those demonrats are voting "ABC", Anything But Clinton(or one of his hacks).

[woofie]

Go Janet!!!(It will be a lot more fun)

[caltrop]

What it demonstrates is that Bush isn't all that popular. Those of us in North Florida who've been paying attention have been making that point for some time.

[Dog Gone]

Most politicians would kill to have a 13 pt lead in the polls over an opponent.

Bush is not in trouble.

[IMRight]

Good morning ping....

[oldvike]

Exactly.

[Coop]

But you also made the claim that Jeb "still can't break 50%." There were two polls in June showing Bush at 57% and 53%, with Reno at 35-37% and McBride at 29-31%.

[BlackRazor]

Most politicians would kill to have a 13 pt lead in the polls over an opponent. Bush is not in trouble.

While I think Bush will ultimately prevail, I think McBride would give him a very good fight. If Bush had a 13-point lead in mid-October against this guy, then I'd agree, it'd be great. But having only a 13-point edge against a relatively unknown candidate before the primary is even a done deal is a bit too close for comfort. Once the focus is solely on McBride vs. Bush, those numbers will tighten. And anytime an incumbent polls under 50%, as Bush does here, it's not a good sign.

[Coop]

It's one poll.

[BlackRazor]

It's one poll.

Agreed. It's not anything to get worked up over, but it should be viewed with caution, rather than dismissal. I don't think those June polls are very applicable right now because no one had a clue who McBride was at that time. There's no question McBride's standing has improved since then.

[Nonstatist]

There were two polls in June showing Bush at 57% and 53%

That was June. Youre not concerned? ..The state's got a lot of Democrats in it.

[Coop]

it should be viewed with caution, rather than dismissal. I don't think those June polls are very applicable right now because no one had a clue who McBride was at that time. There's no question McBride's standing has improved since then.

Agreed. I'll be a little concerned if McBride does win the primary, because he'll have the "big Mo" on his side. I only included the June polls to refute the statement on another thread that Jeb "still can't" break 50%.

If McBride does win the primary, Jeb will have to partially blame himself. Running attack ads against McBride only helped raise his name recognition, in my view, and it made voters feel Jeb was worried about him.

I don't know much about this polling firm. They've been in business for 30 years, but this is the only poll of theirs in my entire spreadsheet (though they were involved in the GA primary races).

[caltrop]

When I suggested JEB still can't break 50% I was referring to the current poll. I'm well aware of the fact that, earlier on, his poll numbers were better than 50%.

My point still stands - JEB is a lot less popular in areas he needs support in than most casual observers will probably recognize. While his fans point to people who've never voted for anyone except a Democrat before who are voting for JEB this year, they're inclined to overlook the people who've never voted for anyone except a Republican who won't vote for JEB again. If it's a Bush - McBride contest it'll be a horse race and, depending on the positions McBride stakes out, Bush could easily lose.

[Coop]

I wouldn't say Bush could easily lose. I think McBride will be a more formidable foe than Reno (Come on, Janet! Hang in there, Baby!!), but Jeb is no slouch either. He'll have a strong network and a significant money advantage, though I do expect national dollars will flow into Dem coffers after the primary, no matter who wins.

[justshe]

Does FL still have a GOP legislature? And what is the status of the State Supremes in THIS election? Don't they have to be re-confirmed every once in awhile?

[dead]

I'm gonna cry if Reno loses the primary.

She's way too much fun to goof on.

C'mon Janet. Shake, rattle, and roll you little red truck some more! Television needs you!

[caltrop]

Florida's House and Senate are solidly Republican. The Senate, however, is heavily RINO. The Supreme Court is all liberals (one a joint Chiles - Bush appointment) a few of whom are up for retention this November.

[caltrop]

I think Bush is a slouch. His victory in 1998 was more a Democratic loss than a Bush win.

[justshe]

Thanks, caltrop.

In MY perfect world, of course, the Supremes would be voted OUT. :-)