Posted on 08/30/2002 4:34:36 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
ANALYSIS-Jordan seen likely to back U.S. campaign in Iraq
By Suleiman al-Khalidi
AMMAN, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Jordan might have deep misgivings about a U.S. attack on Iraq but the kingdom which sat on the fence in the 1991 Gulf War would have no choice but to join a U.S.-led campaign, officials and diplomats said on Friday.
But the pivotal U.S. ally in the Middle East wedged between Iraq and Israel would be hoping that any military action would be brief because of fears a prolonged war could go dangerously wrong and wreak havoc in a volatile neighbourhood, they said.
"We paid a heavy price for our position in 1991, why repeat history and the situation has changed now?" a former senior government official, who requested anonymity, said.
"It's a very tricky situation...it needs to be a surgical success that does not drag on for months and builds opposition," he said.
Jordan sympathised with Iraq during the 1990-91 Gulf crisis sparked by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Jordan did not join a U.S.-led coalition that drove Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991.
The kingdom has never had the attention of U.S. officials, legislators and politicians as it has now. Few world leaders have had as many private audiences with U.S. President George W. Bush over the last year as the country's monarch King Abdullah.
Jordan's elevated role in both U.S. military and political thinking as an important frontline ally with borders with Iraq allows it to provide logistical assistance in a U.S.-led attack against Baghdad, Western diplomats say.
Jordan flouted strongly anti-U.S. sentiment over Washington's support of Israel and went further than other moderate Arab states in its public support of Bush's "war on terror" and the military campaign against Afghanistan.
Jordan has been rewarded by a Free Trade Agreement and increased U.S. aid.
The reward came with the biggest jump in years in a hefty military and economic aid package that will almost double economic aid to $250 million in 2003.
That does not include considerable secret aid assistance to the country's army, trained and equipped by the United States.
SHORT-TERM PAIN, LONG-TERM GAINS
Politicians say Washington's stewardship of the country's political elite for a new status in a newly shaped Middle East under American aegis has a price tag.
Diplomats and officials say the kingdom is positioned to gain in a redrawing of the regional map that would install a pro-Western regime in Iraq but not without some short-term pain.
"We have no option but engage with the Americans and rationalise their approach," a cabinet minister said.
The kingdom is eager to protect its own national interests, in maintaining as long as possible the lucrative $1 billion annual oil trade with Iraq that has cushioned its treasury should the United States wage war and win.
Washington, with all its powerful leverage, cannot match Iraq's generous $300 million oil grant and over $350 million worth of oil supplied in an bargain barter deal.
The United Nations allowed Jordan to get supplies from Iraq after the Gulf War on grounds it was the only affordable source.
Decision-makers have contingency plans for a strategic stockpile of Iraq energy supplies to outlast a decisive U.S. assault but not a prolonged campaign.
But the government faces a predicament to prepare public opinion for a radical shift in its stance against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
King Abdullah has begun some cautious steps by laying the blame on Saddam for an attack if he failed to give in to demands to allow U.N. inspectors back.
"Iraq has always won the hearts and minds of Jordanians, a country with no territorial ambitions that has over the last two decades almost subsidised the economy," a cabinet minister said.
Jordan's political establishment will find it a hard sell to counter widespread popular suspicion in a country where many fear Washington would bully the government into letting its territory be used as a launching pad.
Iraq's powers of patronage and influence-peddling by oil and commercial deals has over many years lined not just the pockets of middlemen and businessmen but also senior politicians, officials said.
But the government will not jeopardise its strategic relationship with Washington by showing any lack of resolve to handle any civil unrest that could be instigated in the event of a large-scale U.S. attack on Iraq.
Security sources say tough measures will be taken on grounds of national security to ensure pro-Iraqi opposition groups do not exploit heightened popular emotions.
"We even know their shoe sizes," a senior official said.
20He has put forth his hands against those who were at peace with him;
He has broken his covenant.
21The words of his mouth were smoother than butter,
But war was in his heart;
His words were softer than oil,
Yet they were drawn swords.
22Cast your burden on the LORD,
And He shall sustain you;
He shall never permit the righteous to be moved.
23But You, O God, shall bring them down to the pit of destruction;
Bloodthirsty and deceitful men shall not live out half their days;
But I will trust in You.
The distance between Cairo and Baghdad, via Amman = 807 = the golden ratio
That is,
Cairo - Amman = 308
Amman - Baghdad = 499
These whole number distances represent the golden ratio [one number +/- either way gives a result further away from the mean].
|---------|-------------|
499/308 ~ 807/499
1.62012987 ~ 1.61723447
[The average of the two being 1.61868217]
Or, if I were to multiply 499 by the phi number 1.618034, and then round to the nearest whole number, I would get
499 x 1.618034 = 807.398966 = 807
Alternatively,
807 x .618034 = 498.753438 = 499
FYI
A: FYI
Cairo - Amman = 308
Amman - Baghdad = 499
Bush White House = 308 + 499
FYI
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