Chavez: Lula da Silva positive change for South America (Castro-da Silva-Chavez axis)

CARACAS, Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez said Saturday that leftist candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would help bring more justice to South America if he won Brazil's presidential elections.

"Lula is a great man," Chavez told foreign reporters at a news conference. "The left is going to win in Brazil. Changes are coming step by step on this continent. I think about it day and night."

Polls show Lula, of the leftist Workers' Party, leading the Brazilian race with 37 percent, trailed by ex-Finance Minister Ciro Gomes with 20 percent and government candidate Jose Serra with 19 percent.

Markets have reacted nervously to the prospect of Lula's victory. Lula himself has sought to calm those jitters, recently pledging to honor Brazil's dlrs 30 billion aid deal with the International Monetary Fund if he wins the October elections.

But Chavez said Lula's lead in the race signaled that positive changes were sweeping South America - changes leading the region away from free market reforms that the Venezuelan president blames for increasing the gap between rich and poor.

Another sign was that indigenous representatives grabbed an unprecedented 35 of 157 seats in recent Bolivian congressional elections, Chavez said. Such developments have given him confidence that movements like his own self-styled leftist "revolution" would "emerge not only in this continent but in the whole world," he added.

The president spoke moments before leaving to participate in the World Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. Chavez is an outspoken critic of unchecked capitalism and a fervent admirer of Latin American leftists like Cuban President Fidel Castro.

Despite his rhetoric, however, Chavez has mostly respected Venezuela's market economy. He hasn't nationalized any industries and he recently hailed deals with five foreign oil companies to exploit Venezuela's largest natural gas reserves.

Even so, opposition leaders charge his anti-business rhetoric has deepened social class divisions and alienated investment. Blaming a 7 percent economic contraction in the first half of the year on incoherent government policies, Chavez opponents are trying to organize a referendum to oust him before his term ends in 2007.

Chavez rejects the criticism. On Saturday, he reiterated his theory that the economic crisis was mostly due to deliberate "sabotage" by opposition business and labor leaders - including strikes and protests that helped provoke a failed coup in April. He said he was confident the economy would start to recover in the second half the year as it begins to benefit from a boom in international oil prices.

Venezuela will urge the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain its current production quotas at the group's Sept. 19 meeting in Osaka, Japan, Chavez said. Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves in the Hemisphere, depends on oil for half of government income and 80 percent of export revenue.

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

Cuba - Fidel Castro

The Southern Threat*** U.S. Treasury secretary Paul O'Neill recently drew attention to the economic risks inherent in Brazil's more than $250 billion dollar international debt and caused great concern in the financial community when he said that "throwing the U.S. taxpayer's money at a political uncertainty in Brazil doesn't seem brilliant to me. . . . The situation there is driven by politics, . . . not . . . by economic conditions." A da Silva presidency would likely mean Brazil's default on its debts, which, combined with the crisis in Argentina, could cause immense economic problems in all of Latin America. But worse than the economic downturn would be the effect on the Brazilian people of a radical regime moving toward dictatorship and the risk of destabilization in the region from a Castro-da Silva-Chavez axis.

A da Silva regime in Brazil could soon be followed by the success of the Communist guerrillas in Colombia and the establishment of anti-American regimes in Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador (where in January 2000 radicals toppled the government in a few days, with help from military officers recruited by Chavez, though their success was short-lived). Thus, by the end of 2003, the United States might be faced with anti-American regimes in most of South America.

If those regimes recruited only one tenth of one percent of military-aged males for terrorist attacks on the United States, this could mean 30,000 terrorists coming from the south. In addition, many Middle Eastern terrorist organizations, including the PLO, have long collaborated with Castro against the United States and its allies; they and the Iranian-backed terrorists of Hezbollah have hidden among the sizable Middle Eastern communities in Brazil and Venezuela.***

Financially shaky Brazil could drag Latin America down - "Axis of Latin Evil"*** Even so, conservatives in Washington fear the once rabidly socialist da Silva could be the third leg of an ''axis of Latin evil'' with Cuba's Fidel Castro and Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez………..Brazilians, as others in Latin America, have been feeling neglected by the Bush administration. George W. Bush came into office proclaiming the start of a ''Century of the Americas'' but has been preoccupied with the war on terror. In the meantime, bankruptcy has claimed Argentina; social unrest has gripped Venezuela and Peru; Colombia's civil war is spiraling toward a new level of violence; and Mexico's economy has faltered along with that of the USA.

To many here, the IMF rescue was welcome not so much for the money as a sign Washington was paying attention. ''It was a relief to see that we matter. Our massive geographic and economic weight has been an asset -- it's made us too big to fail,'' says de Souza, the AmCham president. ''The reason is obvious. If Brazil collapses, then South America will collapse. Then it will spread to all Latin America, including Mexico. Then it will be on your doorstep.''***

For the good of Brazil, and of mankind, one hopes Lula will follow his fellow demagogue William Jennings Bryan into perpetual defeat.

Seems every election year brings on the Lula scare. Generally, conservative forces in Brazil muster last-second salvation through money, media and all the other little ways that Brazil is run...

The old joke is of Lula greeting an audience. A little boy screaming support for him draws his attention, and he directs film crews and reporters to the boy.

"Tell me, my son, why you support me," says Lula smugly.

"Becuase," smiles the boy, "my Dad says that if you're elected President we get to move to Miami!"

BUMP for the article and one for your site, Nicollo.

Having spoken with some friends "down South", my fear is hearing from them how things have steadily taken a turn for the worse. My "adopted family" in Praia Grande tell me how hard it is for people to find work. They're in a resort town but own a business that does not rely on the tourism industry, but from what they tell me it's getting harder and harder to make a real.

The other aspects of the situation that concern me are the growth of the power of labor unions. Truckers, general utilities and other essential services have become strongholds for unions, with all of the socialist/communist propaganda being spread among it's members that you could expect. One trucker's strike down there while back resulted in rioting, looting, murder and general shut down an area near Sao Paulo for about a week. Not a pretty scene.

The point is that a person with the ability to manipulate such work stopages has the ability to paralize the country and cause vast spread chaos. It's as powerful as having an army at your disposal. Lula is a significant threat to Brasil because his politics are right along the lines of the labor unions.

At any rate, I'd sure hate to see him get elected. Then again, like in your post, I'd sure love to have my friend live within driving distance!

Tanta saudade por meu Brasil... Oh well. Nice place to visit, but there ain't no place like home.

The only worse time than during a general strike to get anything or get anywhere in Sao Paulo is during a World Cup game. At least, then, the bloodshed is in joy.

I haven't been there for five years or so, so I can't say how it is today. My banker friends seem calm about Brazil, but then again, they've had Argentina to deal with lately, so anything less bad is not worth the mention. Brazil is always on the edge of crisis. When I worked there we likened it to a roller coaster: you enjoy the free falls, then sit out the troughs. Seems there was never any inbetween.

I saw the transition from hyperinflation to the real, and it was all very discouraging. The problems are endemic: lack of property rights, unfair & unworkable tax codes (I had a client who bragged that he actually paid all his taxes... now there's a unique individual) and, the cause of it all, populist politics. Brazil is truly a case of how democracy can go wrong. They've practically copied our constitution, but they're weak on the bill of rights. If you scan our thread on de Tocqueville, some ideas might come to you. (Just occurred to me now, so I haven't given it much thought). I'll flag you & CinciWife over there & perhaps we'll have a few ideas.

Lula's danger is precisely as you mention, he's of by and for the unions. One wonders, though, what will happen when their boy gets in the saddle and they've got no one to complain about? These groups only work in opposition.

The reform spirit in South America has been poisoned by populism & socialism. It makes me sick to talk politics with a South American liberal; there's no hope. They want equality of outcome alone.

Best of luck to your friends there. I'm inclined now to look up my old buddies & see how they're making out. Perhaps they'll call me from Miami.

PS I see that my other S. American home, Paraguay, has made the list of "most corrupt" again. Poor Paraguay, so rich in soil and good people, and so spoiled by fools in power. Man, what's with the Spanish, anyway?

I saw the transition from hyperinflation to the real, and it was all very discouraging. The problems are endemic: lack of property rights, unfair & unworkable tax codes (I had a client who bragged that he actually paid all his taxes... now there's a unique individual) and, the cause of it all, populist politics. Brazil is truly a case of how democracy can go wrong. They've practically copied our constitution, but they're weak on the bill of rights.

If Lula wins, I predict he'll pull a Chavez and just do whatever he wants.

I'll go check out Forbes.

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