Math Used in Hunt for Md. Sniper

AP via Yahoo ^ | Mon Oct 7, 4:10 PM ET | By JIM KRANE, AP Technology Writer

[11th_VA]

Investigators are trying to zero in on the Washington-area sniper with a computerized technique known as geographic profiling.

Geographic profiling, pioneered more than a decade ago by former Vancouver Police detective Kim Rossmo, works on the theory that except for a small buffer zone around their homes, criminals tend to hunt victims in areas they are familiar with.

Investigators in the Maryland case have asked Rossmo to help out.

Geo-profilers triangulate the likely home of the killer by analyzing such locations as the sites of the attacks and places where bodies were dumped. With each killing, more clues are entered into the computer.

"The more killings you have, the better it works," said Andreas Olligschlaeger, president of TruNorth Data Systems, which makes crime analysis software. "It's an unfortunate fact. More people have to die to get a better chance of capturing the killer."

While doing doctoral research, Rossmo developed a mathematical algorithm that was used as the basis for geo-profiling software now sold by the Vancouver company Environmental Criminology Research Inc. Only a few police investigators around the world have been trained on the software, which relies heavily on a detective's intuition.

The software crunches location data and other clues to create a "jeopardy surface" — what looks like a color-coded topographical map that highlights the suspect's likeliest location.

Typically, if police believe a killer lives in a 10-square-mile area, Rossmo's tool can narrow that down to a few blocks.

Rossmo and the few geo-profilers now using his methods claim to have helped solve about half of the 450 cases they have studied.

Among those he has helped on were serial rape cases in Lafayette, La., and Mississuaga, Ontario, that were solved. Rossmo now heads research at the Police Foundation in Washington, D.C.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Ontario police and federal law agencies in Germany, Britain, Australia use the Vancouver company's geo-profiling software, according to ECRI.

[Lord Marshal]

I believe it's possible to identify some of these factors you identified with the profile. Look at the timing. This guy's a morning person. On Thursday and Monday he was up with his rifle in the field and claimed his first victom by 7:41 am, and 8:09 am respectively. Look at shootings 2,3,4 and 5 in order. He probably came from the North West, hit the man on the mower at 7:41. He turned north killed the man at the gas station 30 minutes later, went a little further north to the post office, and though he was being real cleaver when he turned south, doubled back, and struck south of main through fair an hour and a half later. The shooting the furthers SOUTH took place at 2:30, perhaps increased travel time? Is there any construction or perhaps a traffic accident on that day?

And the boy at the middle school, further east, and later in the morning...

He's disicplined. Detail oriented. And will be tough to catch.

[Doctor Stochastic]

It's a updated version of the pin-on-the-map. One can automate things like drawing hours-of-travel isotimes (my newly coined word) taking into account terrain, highways, roads, etc.

[B4Ranch]

This bears repeating "He's disicplined. Detail oriented. And will be tough to catch.

[maxwell]

Why, what's being said about the UMD campus?

[Theophilus]

Sounds like hocus-pocus to me. They should try using acoustic sensors to quickly determine the shot locations and then zoom in with a recon satellite.

[Lord Marshal]

Yea. right. And what are the odd of a recon satalite being in it's very narrow window over the target???

[HiTech RedNeck]

He was fed up with his old neighborhood because of _ _ _ _ _ and is wanting revenge.

Not sure how a snipe-or-two-a-day in random areas could achieve "revenge" for anything except for a majorly twisted mind. Especially a kid in the doorway of a school.

[OldEagle]

I think his gimmick is the truck. Apparently the enclosed part is long enough for him to have a good prone shooting position and he is able to shoot through a partially-open door. It might even be a one-man operation.

[Thumper1960]

How about a cab driver?

[Theophilus]

Not sure, but I am sure that we have a lot more than one sat. Check this out:

[B4Ranch]

If he is of ME background and fed up with the US treatment of Muslims then he would find any white target satisfactory. Don't you think?

[HiTech RedNeck]

The USA is virtually rolling over for these guys. Getting in trouble with the law here -- when they do -- is a holiday compared with what it would be like back home.

[sit-rep]

An HBar type rifle, can break in two with the removal of one screw and a pin. This would create a size less than 20" long.

SR

[ChasingFletch]

They'll find this guy as quickly as they found Chandra's killer! How about that silly fool profiler named Fox, on O'Reilly last night? What a dweeb! Dweeb, "he's probably in his 20's or 30's." O'Reilly, "Why"? Dweeb, "Well, he could be in his 50's". What a guy!

[11th_VA]

was the sniper trying to hit someone inside by shooting through the glass??

He just missed a clerk inside the store. The round passed a rack with 'The Prayer of Jabez" on it ...