[sourcery]

The counter argument: US is not in danger of deflation

[justshutupandtakeit]

Read later.

[cerberus]

Kondratieff Wave Theory is mumbo jumbo voodoo BS in my humble opinion.

[Free the USA]

bump

[Cicero]

There has been a kind of 50-year cycle in the American economy, from the earliest years through 1929. But I think it's stretching it to say that 1949 was the bottom of anything. More likely the bottom was around 1942 at latest. For that matter, the Great Crash took place in 1929.

So, it's true that there was a depression every 51 years or so until 1929. But it's been a lot longer than 50 years since then, and no similar event has yet occurred.

Of course you can argue that the longer you put off a correction with government intervention, the worse it will be when it finally comes. But that doesn't tell us much about what the future will bring, or when.

[citizenK]

Interesting food for thought.

[upcountryhorseman]

I too have been interested in cycles in the stock market;
These same people predicted a big drop only too early!
However, This time they are right. I see a bottom at
5,500 on the Dow.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Gold prices will not rise during a depression.

Kondratief's cycles do not fit too closely. He was killed for telling Stalin that capitalism could recover from the Great Depression. Not what commie theory predicted.