California Puzzle -- Poll Shows Simon Beating Davis

Creators Syndicate ^ | 10-21-02 | Bob Novak

[navigator]

The nightly tracking poll taken for the California Teachers Association (CTA), made available to Republicans Friday morning, was startling.

Thursday night's telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.

Those numbers collide with Democratic surveys that show a double-digit lead for Davis. They also force a decision on George W. Bush that must be made instantly. Should he pay a final one-day visit to San Diego, perhaps next Monday, to affirm Simon as the Republican Party's California standard-bearer in good standing? Or should he not risk the damage to his prestige in the Golden State that could result from association with a drubbing?

At stake is not just the way the nation's most populous state will be governed for the next four years. The baroque Simon-Davis contest is drenched in 2004 presidential politics. President Bush's friends here are concentrating on his becoming the first Republican to carry the state since his father in 1988. Whether Davis tries for the Democratic nomination in 2004 will be determined by his re-election effort this year.

Davis ought to have nothing to worry about. The California Republican Party, non-performing and torn by bitter feuds, has hit bottom after decades of decline. Democrats enjoy immense advantages in money, organization and even the erstwhile Republican superiority in getting out the absentee vote.

On top of this, Simon's error-plagued campaign shows that a shakedown candidacy for the county board of supervisors or state assembly would have helped. Indeed, the conventional wisdom remains that Davis will win easily against a man best known for being the son of financier William E. Simon, a former secretary of the Treasury.

Diluting these immense advantages, Gray Davis is undoubtedly the most unpopular governor of California that anybody can remember. Prominent Democrats privately express contempt for him as a relentless fund-raiser without principles. One well-known elected government official told me he had endorsed Davis as far back as the 1998 Democratic primary but now considers him "another Nixon." He rages that Simon is about to be wiped out, propelling Davis into the White House. He plans to vote for Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo.

The poll for the CTA (by Washington-based Republican pollster Jan Van Lohuizen) showed in the Tuesday-through-Thursday three-day roll last week that 52.9 percent of Californians think the state is on the "wrong track" compared with 30.4 percent who say it is going in the "right direction." Davis has never recovered from his handling of last year's energy problems. Most dangerous for Davis are possible defections of Latinos (now comprising one third of the state's population). The legislature's Latino caucus refused to endorse Davis because he vetoed a bill enabling illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, a measure shown by surveys to be widely unpopular. In response, the governor moved quickly to get 17 of the 22 caucus members to sign an endorsement. Questions cannot be definitively answered until Election Day. Will the lingering undecided voters just stay home? Could an usually light turnout defeat Davis? Has Simon, the victim of Davis's unremitting attack ads and his own mishaps, become unelectable in California? There are loyal, well-placed California Republicans who feel Simon should never have run in the first place, is a sure loser, and that the president should stay out of the Golden State for the next two weeks. Published reports suggest that he might come into Rep. Gary Condit's district in the Central Valley to support an underdog Republican bid for Condit's successor. That won't happen. If Bush comes in, it will be to help Simon. This is a test for the president and his political team. A stunning upset by a terribly flawed campaign would cheer an election night where longtime Republican governorships in Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably will end in top-heavy defeats. Bush backers in California distrust the CTA poll, and fear humiliation for the president. A gambler would come here, but Republican presidents usually don't gamble.

[JameRetief]

Poll Ping.

[DB]

We can dream...

[I_Love_My_Husband]

Dear God in your mercy,

Please help us defeat the Democrats, help us, we will try to be better. Help us get our country and our state back on track.

Your servant,
ILMH

[ChadGore]

bttt

[Coop]

We can dream...

What dream? The only dream going on is with those folks thinking Davis is up by double digits. Simon has been and still is within striking distance. That may explain why President Bush had a short stop in San Diego on his tentative fundraising/campaigning schedule.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[Judith Anne]

I'm praying the exact same thing here in Missouri...

[KneelBeforeZod]

someone must have infiltrated the California Teachers Mafia...

Good news is that the SF Chronicle just reported some of Davis' friends were able to get carte blanche and avoid any regulations when building along the coastline. A nice gift, if only Simon doesn't blow it again.

[Dr. Scarpetta]

Bump

[uncbob]

Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.

Numbers for both in the 30s
Probably indicates a low turnout

[section9]

Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.

Numbers for both in the 30s
Probably indicates a low turnout

I would like to believe that Simon is finally closing, after so many missteps. Every day seems to bring a new revelation about Davis' corruption. However, all the daily papers held thier noses and supported Grayout.

I remain disappointed, but hope that other tracking polls will show Simon closing to within five points ten days out. If he does that, Coop tells me that Simon can win this thing.

Here's hoping.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Coop]

I remain disappointed, but hope that other tracking polls will show Simon closing to within five points ten days out.

Two different articles last week referenced GOP internal tracking polls showing Simon within 3-6 points. They also mentioned that if he remained in that range that President Bush would probably stump for him again.

[hchutch]

This is NOT good for Grayout.

C'mon simon, stay on target. Stay on target...

[DB]

I donated significant money to Simon's campaign twice... I cajoled my friends to donate… I very much hope he wins.

He hasn't been the best campaigner thus far. Frankly it's a miracle he's doing as well as he is considering how liberal this state is. His opponent is saving him…

[Coop]

You're right. Good work on the donations. Now work on those same folks and others to go to the polls Nov. 5th and vote for Simon!

[TatieBug]

It's 6:15 am and I'm on my way out to put up SIMON for Governor signs! This article is a big boost to my efforts and I hope others also. I haven't seen ONE Davis sign but they surely have alot of Simon signs hidden somewhere as they are disappearing pretty quickly...we have more! Let's press on to save CA!

[DB]

Hey navigator, did I just miss you or haven't you been posting for awhile???

[I_Love_My_Husband]

Judith,

I'm wondering if there could be a prayer thread started for the election?

I know there's daily prayer threads for President Bush, but maybe we should start a prayer thread for our guys to win?

[DB]

Actually I don't know of any family or friends that aren't going to vote. Not one. Out of those only three tops may not vote for Simon. None of them will vote for Grayout.