Posted on 10/21/2002 9:30:27 AM PDT by John Jorsett
LOS ANGELES--The nightly tracking poll taken for the California Teachers Association, made available to Republicans last Friday morning, was startling. Thursday night's telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.
Those numbers collide with Democratic surveys that show a double-digit lead for Davis. They also force a decision on President Bush that must be made instantly. Should he pay a final one-day visit to San Diego, perhaps next Monday, to affirm Simon as the Republican Party's California standard-bearer in good standing? Or should he not risk the damage to his prestige in the Golden State that could result from association with a drubbing?
At stake is not just the way the nation's most populous state will be governed for the next four years. The baroque Simon-Davis contest is drenched in 2004 presidential politics. Bush's friends here are concentrating on his becoming the first Republican to carry the state since his father in 1988. Whether Davis tries for the Democratic nomination in 2004 will be determined by his re-election effort this year.
Davis ought to have nothing to worry about. The California Republican Party, nonperforming and torn by bitter feuds, has hit bottom after decades of decline. Democrats enjoy immense advantages in money, organization and even the erstwhile Republican superiority in getting out the absentee vote. On top of this, Simon's error-plagued campaign shows that a shakedown candidacy for the county board of supervisors or state assembly would have helped. Indeed, the conventional wisdom remains that Davis will win easily against a man best known for being the son of financier William E. Simon, a former secretary of the Treasury.
Diluting these immense advantages, Davis is undoubtedly the most unpopular governor of California that anybody can remember. Prominent Democrats privately express contempt for him as a relentless fund-raiser without principles. One well-known elected government official told me he had endorsed Davis as far back as the 1998 Democratic primary but now considers him ''another Nixon.'' He rages that Simon is about to be wiped out, propelling Davis into the White House. He plans to vote for Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo.
The poll for the teachers association (by Washington-based Republican pollster Jan Van Lohuizen) showed in the Tuesday-through-Thursday three-day roll last week that 52.9 percent of Californians think the state is on the ''wrong track'' compared with 30.4 percent who say it is going in the ''right direction.'' Davis has never recovered from his handling of last year's energy problems.
Most dangerous for Davis are possible defections of Latinos (now comprising one third of the state's population). The legislature's Latino caucus refused to endorse Davis because he vetoed a bill enabling illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, a measure shown by surveys to be widely unpopular. In response, the governor moved quickly to get 17 of the 22 caucus members to sign an endorsement.
Questions cannot be definitively answered until Election Day. Will the lingering undecided voters just stay home? Could an unusually light turnout defeat Davis? Has Simon, the victim of Davis' unremitting attack ads and his own mishaps, become unelectable in California?
There are loyal, well-placed California Republicans who feel Simon should never have run in the first place, is a sure loser, and that the president should stay out of the Golden State for the next two weeks. Published reports suggest that he might come in to Rep. Gary Condit's district in the Central Valley to support an underdog Republican bid to become Condit's successor. That won't happen. If Bush comes in, it will be to help Simon.
This is a test for the president and his political team. A stunning upset by a terribly flawed campaign would cheer an election night where longtime Republican governorships in Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably will end in top-heavy defeats. Bush backers in California distrust the teachers association poll, and fear humiliation for the president. A gambler would come here, but Republican presidents usually don't gamble.
I don't see why it should be so difficult to make a stop by Condit's district on a trip to California to help Simon.
Seems the worm is starting to turn against doofus. I would love to see some other polls now.
Info favorable to Simon seems to be soft pedaled assuming that it comes out at all. The only places I've seen a peep about this are this Novak column and a mention on the Mark Larson radio program this morning (guest Ann Coulter also mentioned it). Apparently this is widely known among the commentators, but I've yet to see a news story about it.
| ...DATE../..TIME... | ...CITY../..SITE... | ...ADDRESS.. | ...MORE INFORMATION... |
| Monday 10/21/2002 - 12 pm | Chico, CA | CSU-Chico Corner of Warner St and Big Chico |
CHICO AREA FREEPERS, HERE YA GO! A RARE OPPORTUNITY to DUMP DAVIS!!! Gather at NOON! Bring your "For Sale: Gray Davis!" signs |
| Monday 10/21/2002 - 3 pm | Eureka, CA | FReeP Davi$ at the Warfinger Building Next to Small Boat Basin Near Washington and the Bay | Could be another Union Rally!!! If you go, U R on yur own .. But We're with Ya in Spirit!!! :-) |
| Tuesday 10/22/2002 - 7 pm Gather at 6:30 pm |
Palo Alto, CA | BAY AREA DUMP DAVI$ Rally TechNet TownHall Meeting w/Gray Davis Hyatt Rickey’s 4219 El Camino Real Palo Alto, CA Cross Street - Charleston Road |
Rescheduled Event GraYouT Davi$ Cancelled this the Last Time because he was BUSTED on the High Speed Rail Pay-Off! Freepers, Gather at 6:30 pm For everyone who has wanted to know what they can do to keep Gray "Show me the Money" Davis out of Sacramento, try to make time to be outside the following with as big a "For Sale" sign as you can muster. |
| Tuesday 10/22/2002 | Los Angeles, CA | Chamber of Commerce / Small Business Conference related ? | Still need info to confirm this is a potential FReep opportunity; location, organization, etc. |
| Saturday 10/26/2002 12pm | San Francisco, CA | West Coast Patriots Rally "Stop the Warped (Leftists)" Rally San Francisco City Hall at the Civic Center |
Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! Please be aware, even though there may be police there, we are each responsible for our own safety. Parking available at the Civic Center Parking Garage. BART stops a few blocks away. Cal-train + bus is also available. |
I just read Novak's column in the Register.
Good news and great catch!
I'll ping my list.
Memories:
California Power Crisis animations featuring Governor Gray Davis
AND......................
...to see what bad, bad things Davis has done... - CLICK HERE
calgov2002:
 calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register |
Go SIMON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
| ...DATE../..TIME... | ...CITY../..SITE... | ...ADDRESS.. | ...MORE INFORMATION... |
| Monday 10/21/2002 - 12 pm | Chico, CA | CSU-Chico Corner of Warner St and Big Chico |
CHICO AREA FREEPERS, HERE YA GO! A RARE OPPORTUNITY to DUMP DAVIS!!! Gather at NOON! Bring your "For Sale: Gray Davis!" signs |
| Monday 10/21/2002 - 3 pm | Eureka, CA | FReeP Davi$ at the Warfinger Building Next to Small Boat Basin Near Washington and the Bay | Could be another Union Rally!!! If you go, U R on yur own .. But We're with Ya in Spirit!!! :-) |
| Tuesday 10/22/2002 - 7 pm Gather at 6:30 pm |
Palo Alto, CA | BAY AREA DUMP DAVI$ Rally TechNet TownHall Meeting w/Gray Davis Hyatt Rickey’s 4219 El Camino Real Palo Alto, CA Cross Street - Charleston Road |
Rescheduled Event GraYouT Davi$ Cancelled this the Last Time because he was BUSTED on the High Speed Rail Pay-Off! Freepers, Gather at 6:30 pm For everyone who has wanted to know what they can do to keep Gray "Show me the Money" Davis out of Sacramento, try to make time to be outside the following with as big a "For Sale" sign as you can muster. |
| Tuesday 10/22/2002 | Los Angeles, CA | Chamber of Commerce / Small Business Conference related ? | Still need info to confirm this is a potential FReep opportunity; location, organization, etc. |
| Saturday 10/26/2002 12pm | San Francisco, CA | West Coast Patriots Rally "Stop the Warped (Leftists)" Rally City Hall - across from the Civic Center Plaza. Carlton Goodlett Place between McAllister St. and Grove St. |
Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! Please be aware, even though there may be police there, we are each responsible for our own safety. Parking available at the Civic Center Parking Garage. BART stops a few blocks away. Cal-train + bus is also available. |
Got to go till later this afternoon!
1) IF Davis TRULY has less than 40% support, he's toast already. Incumbants don't win with less than 40%.
2) The California Republican Party and Bill Simon have proven they can't organize a booze-up in a brewery even if you bring your own glass, so why should GWB waste political capital and time on something they'll probably foul-up anyway?
3) There's an old rule in politics, never stop you opponent from beating himself. Dim-Bulb Davis is in a panic as his popularity goes DOWN towards election day, and his latest ad is so bad, the Simon campaign should be paying to run it some more. After listing some bogus "accomplishments" including a lame fist-pump, Davis whines "..you may not agree with everything I've done, but I'm working hard.."
George Will was right, Davis is done.
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